PREVIEW: 2024 DP World Tour – Open de Espana

It would be easy to just lay into Rory at this point. His playoff defeat at last week’s BMW PGA Championship felt like a dagger in the heart of European golf.

Honestly, he has been six or seven strokes away from having one of the most amazing seasons of his career. But I don’t think that he has anything to be ashamed of following that narrow Wentworth defeat.

Billy Horschel was incredible over that final stretch, pushing both McIlroy and Thirston Lawrence to the absolute brink. It was an electrifying spectacle that did wonders for the somewhat fragile brand that is DP World Tour golf.

Open de Espana

This week, the tour moves back to continental Europe for one of the oldest events on tour: the Open de Espana.

The outing dates all the way back to 1912 and has been a mainstay of the tour since its inception in 1972. It was absent from the schedule in 2017 and was cancelled in 2020 (due to the pandemic).

This event has a fabled history, with European legend Seve Ballesteros winning three titles between 1981 and 1995. Spanish superstar Jon Rahm will lead the field after successfully (and perhaps controversially) appealing those LIV sanctions.

Club de Campo Villa de Madrid

This will be the 5th consecutive time that the Club de Campo Villa de Madrid hosts this event. It also hosted several editions of the now-defunct Madrid Masters.

The Club de Campo Villa de Madrid is a picturesque course that is vulnerable to low scoring. The tree-lined fairways are relatively wide, and the undulating greens are surrounded by bunkers.

The course is located around 2,500 feet above sea level, making a mockery of the proposed 7,154 yardage. What you do off the tee appears to be largely irrelevant here. The fairways are extremely inviting, and the length of the course invites a multitude of possible winners.

This is a low-scoring test that requires surgical iron play and adroit scrambling. The small bent/poa annua greens are quite tricky and the last four winners have finished inside the top seven for scrambling.

The Contenders

Recently crowned LIV Golf champion Jon Rahm will be looking to win his 4th Open de Espana title in seven years. He is a true behemoth who will suck up plenty of this week’s oxygen.

Fellow LIV aficionado Tyrell Hatton will add further gloss to proceedings while Tommy Fleetwood will no doubt attract plenty of support. Shane Lowry has been in pretty good nick of late while Aaron Rai plays great golf, week-in, week-out.

Patrick Reed will be desperate for a strong showing to gain precious world ranking points while defending champion Mathieu Pavon will look to build on what has been an impressive PGA Tour season.

This is quite a strong field for a post-Rolex Series Tour event (one can only imagine the appearance fees being dished out this week).

Past Winners

2023: Mathieu Pavon (-23)
2022: Jon Rahm (-25)
2021: Rafa Cabrera-Bello (-19) *playoff
2020: event cancelled
2019: Jon Rahm (-22)

To Win Outright:

Jon Rahm 7/2 | Tommy Fleetwood 8/1 | Tyrell Hatton 8/1 | Shane Lowry 12/1 | Aaron Rai 12/1

Value Bets

Matt Wallace – To Win 25/1 | To Place 11/2

Matt Wallace looks like a solid outside bet this week. He won at Crans-sur-Sierre a fortnight ago and he followed that up with a commendable 12th at Wentworth (his best finish at the flagship European event).

This has been part of a broader career renaissance that started with a breakthrough PGA Tour victory at last year’s Corales Championship. He hit more greens than any other player on Sunday at Wentworth, signing off with an impressive 64.

He could really make a statement this week as he looks to pull ahead in the early stages of Ryder Cup qualifying.

Ugo Coussaud – To Win 175/1 | To Place 38/1

This is purely a case of trying to strike while the iron is hot. Qatar Masters runner-up Ugo Coussard has enjoyed a decent rookie season on tour and looks like excellent value in this week’s place markets.

He finished in a tie for 2nd last week, finishing the tournament with an impressive 16-under-par score.

The Man to Beat – Mathieu Pavon – To Win 25/1 | To Place 11/2

Defending champion Mathieu Pavon just screams value at 25/1. The Frenchman was 40th at Wentworth but has never really played well at the Harry Colt classic.

Pavon has been incredible here over the past two seasons, improving from a runner-up finish in 2022 to winning the title last year (in a combined total of 42-under-par).

Pavon won at Torrey Pines this year and was deep in the mix at Pinehurst No.2, ultimately settling for a T5 finish. His exquisite iron play and silky touch around the greens make him superb value at 25/1.