The Bunnings NPC regular season comes to a close this weekend and it's all to play for with top spot not decided, a couple of home semi-final berths up for grabs and four teams still in the hunt for the last two quarter-final spots.
We’re in for a cracking final regular season round with some huge clashes taking place including Wellington versus Hawkes Bay and Tasman versus Taranaki.
Friday 4 October
To Win (80 Mins)
Northland 73/100 | Draw 28/1 | Otago 11/10
We kick things off at Okara Park with a crucial clash between Northland and Otago. The visitors are only four points adrift of last placed Manawatu and will be looking for a couple of points to avoid the wooden spoon, while Otago find themselves in with a sniff of quarter-finals rugby as they are two points behind eighth-placed Counties Manukau.
The two sides experienced vastly contrasting results this past weekend as Otago grabbed a vital victory beating an understrength Tasman 47-31, while Northland suffered their seventh loss of the season going down 53-13 to Bay of Plenty.
Verdict: Northland 73/100
They’ve played some decent rugby on their own paddock this term and I’m backing them to come good here.
Saturday 5 October
To Win (80 Mins)
Manawatu 56/10 | Draw 43/1 | Counties 1/10
Counties will be looking for the full five-point haul, which will give them a guaranteed quarter-final berth, when they take on a Manawtu sat rooted to the foot of the table but will be looking to finish a poor season on a high note.
The hosts suffered their ninth defeat of the season last weekend as they went down 33-31 to Taranaki. In fairness to them, they put in a hell of a shift in the game and were unlucky to lose having put in a mammoth display in the second stanza where they came back from 28-12 down to lose by just two points.
Counties had a far better time of it last weekend as they hammered table toppers Wellington 51-12. While Wellington were missing a couple of big guns, the Counties defensive effort was brilliant and they made good use of turnover ball.
Verdict: Counties 1/10
They looked devilishly good last weekend and I’m expecting them to put another big score on this coming Saturday.
To Win (80 Mins)
Southland 4/1 | Draw 33/1 | North Harbour 17/100
Next up we’ve got a Southland side out of the running for a quarter-final berth taking on a North Harbour outfit that currently sits level on points with eighth-placed Counties Manukau but a position lower on the ladder due to their inferior points differential.
For Southland, a season that promised so little has turned, well, south very quickly with the hosts for Saturday’s encounter having lost their last five games, which has put them out of the running for knock-out phase rugby. Their latest defeat was one of their heaviest home losses of the campaign as they went down 14-38 to Waikato.
North Harbour had a far better time of it in Round 9 as they put in their display of the campaign hammering Canterbury 65-19. While the Cantabs are far from the all-conquering force of season past, they’re still not an easy side to run riot against.
Verdict: North Harbour (-)
They look like they are hitting form at just the right time and I can see them bagging a win against this Southland outfit, although I will keep the stakes to a minimum as quarter final qualification pressure is a weird thing.
To Win (80 Mins)
Wellington 7/20 | Draw 25/1 | Hawke’s Bay 47/20
Wellington will be looking to usurp Tasman to top spot when they take on a Hawke’s Bay team that currently sit fifth on the log, only a point behind fourth-placed Bay of Plenty.
The hosts come into Saturday’s fixture off the back of a harrowing defeat to Counties Manukau. While they did field a somewhat understrength side, alarm bells could well be ringing as they were smashed 51-12.
Hawke’s Bay managed to snap a two-game losing streak with a narrow 36-35 victory over Auckland this past Saturday, stealing victory from the jaws of defeat with a converted try in the 81st-minute.
Verdict: Wellington 7/20
This should be a cracking game with both teams looking to take momentum into the quarter-finals. While my main plays will be on the over points lines, I’ll also be backing Wellington to clear the handicap here.
To Win (80 Mins)
Canterbury 27/20 | Draw 28/1 | Waikato 6/10
We head over to the OrangeTheory Stadium for our final Saturday fixture which sees seventh-placed Canterbury take on sixth-placed Waikato. The visitors have a mathematical chance of claiming a home semi-final but are unlikely to, while the hosts need a win here to secure a quarter-final berth.
Canterbury had a weekend to forget as they were hammered 65-19 by Northland. They were poor on defence and their attack failed to really fire apart from an eight minute purple patch that came just after the first quarter of the fixture.
Waikato had a far better time of it as they came through a tricky away fixture with Southland with a 14-38 win. They’re looking like a potential challenger for the title and whoever meets them in the quarters should be wary.
Verdict: Waikato 6/10
I feel this is going to be a year of disappointment for Canterbury rugby. While they may still sneak into the quarters due to other results going their way, I reckon they’ll come up short against Waikato.
Sunday 6 October
To Win (80 Mins)
Tasman 2/7 | Draw 23/1 | Taranaki 29/10
One of the clashes of the round is next up with log-leaders Tasman taking on third-placed Taranaki. Only two points separate the two sides on the log and should Wellinton lose their fixture, then this game would become a straight shootout for top spot.
The hosts have had a strange old week as they sent a weakened side to play Otago last Saturday and paid the price as they went down 47-31. They then brought their big guns back for their midweek clash with Auckland and, as expected, they made a huge difference as they registered 31-17 victory that all but ended Auckland’s play-off hopes.
Taranaki survived a scare this past weekend as they weathered a late blitz from cellar-dwellers Manawatu to run out 33-31 victors. They have had a habit of shipping tries late in games and that is something they will need to improve upon with play-offs rugby just around the corner.
Verdict: Tasman (-)
The hosts look a strong shout to claim the title this year and I can see them booking top spot with a big win on Sunday.
To Win (80 Mins)
Auckland 51/20 | Draw 20/1 | Bay of Plenty 32/100
We bring things to a close at Auckland Grammar school where Bay of Plenty will take on a beleaguered Auckland outfit. The Aucklanders need a huge bonus point win and for Counties Manukau to lose to their fixture if they are to have any hope of advancing to the next phase. That seems an almost impossible task against a Bay of Plenty side that is looking to secure a home quarter-final berth.
The hosts season went from bad to worse this past week as they -last minute 36-35 loss to Hawke’s Bay and then their 31-17 midweek defeat to Tasman all but mathematically ended their chances of play-offs rugby. For a side stocked with so much talent, it’s insane that they have been so poor.
Bay of Plenty had a far simpler time of things in Round 9 as they took Northland to task, running out 53-13 victors. They have now won three of their last four fixtures and it seems they have hit a solid run of form just at the right time.
Verdict: Bay of Plenty 32/100
The NPC cannot draw to a close sooner for Auckland. I can see them putting in yet another lacklustre display against Bay of Plenty here.
