The Shangai Masters continues this week as Ben Shelton faces Denis Shapovalov while Sebastian Baez goes up against Gael Monfils in the round of 64. Damien Kayat previews.
Ben Shelton 54/100 | Denis Shapovalov 14/10
This promises to be an entertaining clash between two huge-hitting lefties. This season hasn’t gone quite as well as many would have anticipated for American Ben Shelton.
He really announced himself last season, reaching the quarterfinals at the Aussie Open before an incredible semifinal run at the US Open. He reached the 3rd round of every slam this season but failed to progress beyond the 4th round in any of them.
He has only reached the quarterfinals in one Masters 1000 event all year (Cincinnati). His best result of the season came in Houston, where he won his 2nd career title (and first on clay). These slick Beijing surfaces should theoretically suit his big-serving approach.
He has played well in Asia before, winning his maiden career title at last year’s Japan Open. The charismatic American was knocked out by Fils in the quarterfinal stage of his Japan Open title defence. He could do with a solid fortnight to instill some lost confidence.
It’s hard to believe that Denis Shapovalov is still just 25 years of age! I guess he did break through at a very young age, reaching the Canadian Open semifinals as an 18-year-old back in 2018.
The former top ten player has had a tough few years. A knee injury brought his 2023 season to an abrupt end and he hasn’t been able to rediscover his mojo this year.
He has only reached one quarterfinal all season (in Washington). He has been on the precipice of some solid results in big tournaments, picking up 3rd round finishes at Wimbledon, Roland Garros, Miami and Madrid.
He had to come through qualifying this week but he looked impressive in his first-round match against Winston-Salem champ Lorenzo Sonego. He hit 27 winners and won 77% of his first-serve points against Sonego, becoming just the 3rd Canadian man in history to register 200 ATP Tour wins (after Raonic and Auger-Aliassime).
The Verdict: Shapovalov to win in three 42/10
Shelton leads the head-to-head 2-0, winning both of those matches during this calendar year. But that doesn’t tell the whole story. Shelton beat Shapovlaov in an epic 3rd round clash at Wimbledon, outlasting the Canadian in a marathon five-set slugfest.
The Canadian was then forced to withdraw in an evenly balanced quarterfinal clash in Washington. Shapovalov looked really impressive against Sonego and I think he could spring an upset here.
The Canadian has competed well against him this season and Shelton could be starting to feel the effects of what has been a taxing campaign.
Sebastian Baez 2/1 | Gael Monfils 37/100
23-year-old Argentine Sebastian Baez has enjoyed a solid season, amassing a 31-23 record predominately built on the back of clay-court excellence. He dominated the so-called ‘Golden Swing’, winning back-to-back titles in Rio and Chile. He also reached semifinals in Cordoba and Hamburg (both also played on clay).
He just needs to learn how to translate his clay-court prowess into more sustained hard-court success. He has shown ability on hard surfaces in the past, winning last year’s Winston-Salem Open prior to 3rd round runs at the US and Aussie Opens.
He does play plenty of tennis in the first half of the year (which is obviously front-loaded with a plethora of clay-court events). I think he is feeling the effects of an arduous campaign- evidenced by his 2nd round US Open retirement against Tallon Griekspoor. A prototypical grinder, Baez needs to be in peak physical condition to compete on these surfaces.
I really admire Gael Monfils’ efforts this season. The 38-year-old Frenchman obviously doesn’t have the physical durability he possessed as a 26-year-old (when he was arguably the best athlete on tour). But he has still managed to accumulate a solid 22-20 record this season, reaching the semifinals in Qatar and Mallorca.
He recently picked up one of the biggest victories of his career, taking down recent Beijing champ Carlos Alcaraz in Cincinnati (he would then be eliminated by Holger Rune in the final 16). He pushed Rudd to four sets in their 2nd round US Open clash and he was recently dispatched by Medvedev in the first round of the China Open.
So, he has been mixing it with the elite of the sport in recent months (with some solid results). He has simplified his game this season, leaning on a big serve and powerful forehand to mitigate extended rallies.
The Verdict: Monfils to win in straight sets – 44/10
Monfils leads the head-to-head 1-0, beating Baez at last year’s French Open (on the Argentine’s preferred surface, no less). I just think that Monfils is the superior player on this surface. He has a bigger serve and his groundstrokes are cleaner.
He has been brushing shoulders with some of the game’s best in recent months and should be able to dismantle the Argentine grinder.
