Our golf writer examines what looks to be a fascinating field ahead of the 2017 Saltire Energy Paul Lawrie Match-Play.
Match-play format remains somewhat derided in betting circles, with the rampant unpredictability of such events slightly hazardous to the art of forecasting. But the fact there is a dearth of elite quality players this week means that you aren’t getting ultra-short prices at the top end of the markets, meaning that there’s slightly more wiggle room in backing the top guys in such a treacherous format. The Paul-Lawrie Match-Play- instilled as a fixture on the tour since 2015- takes its nomadic existence outside of Great Britain for the first time and heads to the greater continent.
Saltire Energy Paul Lawrie Match-play | 17 August – 20 August | Quellness Golf Resort
The 2017 Paul Lawrie Match-play will take place in Germany for its third incarnation, with Europe’s largest Golf Club- Golf Club Bad Briesbach- playing host this weekend. The course will be well known to avid followers of the European tour, having been host to the Porsche European Open on two occasions recently. At just a smidge over 7,100 yards, the Bernhard Langer-designed course should offer up plenty of birdie opportunities, especially if rain helps to soften conditions.
Richie Ramsey is something of a match-play specialist, and his recent spike in form sees him leading the markets. This course, however, doesn’t appear to play to the Scot’s strengths. Those with Ryder Cup experience such as Matthew Southgate and Jamie Donaldson will no doubt be looking to resurrect the match-play juju of seasons past in a quest to revitalize their somewhat stagnant performances of late. Otherwise, there are plenty of match-play novices who will be cutting their teeth on in a format that always tends to have a few surprises hidden away.
Past Winners
2016: Anthony Wall 1up over Alex Noren
2015: Kiradech Aphibarnrat 1up over Robert Karlsson
2014: no tournament
2013: no tournament
2012: no tournament
To Win Outright: Richie Ramsey 18/1 | Richard Bland 20/1 | Matthew Southgate 20/1 | Jamie Donaldson 22/1 | Nicolas Colsaerts 22/1
Value Bets
Victor Dubuisson- To Win (28/1), To Place (7/1)
While recent form is always a useful indicator, it does seem to depreciate somewhat when the attentions turn to the very specific demands of match-play golf. Therefore I’m willing to forgive Dubuisson’s lack of any real recent form. Whereas the majority of the field has scant match-play experience, Dubuisson has achieved success at the highest level, finishing runner-up at the 2014 World Match-play event. He did finish 4th at the Trophy Hassan, but generally his mercurial talents have gone slightly askew. The course seems to favor long hitters who score well on Par 5’s, which tends to suggest that the Frenchman could be in contention this week.
Zander Lombard- To Win (35/1), To Place (17/2)
The South African finished runner-up in Sicily this season, and managed to finish 5th in his last event at the Porsche European Open. The big hitting Pretorian is certainly at a lower price this week, but the depleted field should present opportunities to a man whose length off the tee could tame this relatively short course. He also has some encouraging match-play experience against the field. He finished runner-up in the British Amateur Championship final three years ago, showing that he has an appreciation for this format.
Robert Karlsson- To Win (45/1), To Place (9/1)
The whole ‘horses for courses’ adage defiantly powers my thinking with the Swede this week. Karlsson has played 40 tournaments in Germany, winning three titles, finishing runner-up twice and finishing 3rd once. And that 3rd place finish came in last season’s European Open at this very course! Clearly 2017 hasn’t exactly gone according to plan, but he does come off the back of three successive made cuts. He is also one of those guys with precious Ryder Cup experience, managing to beat Justin Leonard on an extremely difficult day for the European side at Valhalla some years back.
The Man to Beat- Richard Bland- To Win (20/1), To Place (5/1)
Following Anthony Wall’s triumph last season, I’m opting for another veteran Englishman to potentially lift the title this week. He hasn’t been seen since an excellent showing at the Open Championship at Birkdale. That came a week after a top 20 finish at the Scottish Open. While the event has been moved from a links style course, there is evidence to suggest that the 44 year-old should still thrive this week. He finished 2nd on German soil in the BMW Championship as recently as late June. Bland has also finished 7th and 9th here at the European Open in the last two seasons. So he looks to have both course form and solid recent form, meaning he could challenge this week.
