Damien Kayat previews the Ro64 matches between Emma Radacanu and Caroline Garvia as well as Simona Halep and Ekaterina Alexandrova from the 2022 BNP Paribas Open.
Emma Radacanu (11) (17/20) vs Caroline Garcia (92/100)
There are those in the media who think that Emma Radacanu could fall into the Anna Kournikova trap (disregard her tennis progression for the sake of off-court glamour).
But I think that the mass media has been far too quick to judge the 19-year-old Brit. She was always going to struggle to deal with the expectations heaped on her following her US Open victory.
Her record since winning at Flushing Meadows is a paltry 3-6. She struggled to adapt to the heat here last year, succumbing to Sasnovich in the first round. This year has been a disaster, with the Brit only picking up one victory thus far.
But there have been major factors behind this dip in form. She contracted Covid at the start of the year and had to deal with post-Covid symptoms for some time. She withdrew last time out in Mexico, with a hip injury reinforcing the notion that she isn’t anywhere near her physical prime.
But she has had a full two weeks to recover and will be looking to silence her naysayers this week.
The Brit faces a tricky opening tie against the ‘resurgent’ Caroline Garcia. Garcia is still some distance from the player she was a few years back. She was a persistent presence in the world’s top ten, winning two WTA 1000 hardcourt titles in the process.
But injury and inconsistency have seen her fall well behind in the last few years. And it didn’t look like 2022 was heading in a much better direction. She entered the Qatar Open with a 1-4 year-to-date record. But she shocked the world with a massive upset victory against Simona Halep. She wasn’t able to quite replicate that form against American sensation Coco Gauff.
But she followed that up with an extremely encouraging run at the Lyon Open, reaching the semi-finals and beating top seed Camelia Giorgi in the process. Garcia is an accomplished hardcourt practitioner and could be a nightmare first-round opponent for the intensely scrutinized Radacanu.
Verdict: Garcia to win in three at 38/10
This will be the first meeting between these two. Obviously, Radacanu’s best tennis should dominate the solid (if unspectacular) Garcia. But there are too many question marks surrounding the British ingenue at present. She has been wildly inconsistent and her injury woes are plentiful. She has also developed a reputation for battling in oppressive conditions (particularly in three-set matches). I think Garcia’s solid all-court game could grind out a three-set win.
Simona Halep (24) (2/11) vs Ekaterina Alexandrova (37/10)
Former World Number One Simona Halep is enjoying a healthy 2022 renaissance. She never won a title in 2021 and was clearly keen to correct that aberration this year. She won her 23rd WTA title in Melbourne and she has generally been solid throughout the year. Her current win-loss ratio for 2022 stands at a glowing 11-3.
She also reached the semi-finals in Dubai last month and is a force to be reckoned with on any surface. She also has pedigree in this event, winning the title in 2015 and reaching the semi-finals on two other occasions. But she has shown the proclivity to lose to lower-ranked opponents on a fairly regular basis.
In fact, all three of her defeats this year have come against unseeded opponents. Most recently in Qatar, she lost to Carolina Garcia in pretty emphatic fashion. Can she impose herself from the off this week or could she be primed for another early exit?
27-year-old Russian Ekaterina Alexandrova is a dangerous early opponent. A three-time WTA finalist, Alexandrova reached the biggest final of her career at last year’s Kremlin Cup, pushing the in-form Anett Kontaveit in a pulsating three-set battle. But the hardcourt specialist has generally battled for consistency in 2022.
She absolutely squeaked by American Elvina Kalieva in her first round, serving an incredible 18 double-faults in the match. 18! This took her year-to-date win-loss record to 3-4. She lives and dies by her big serve.
If she can crank up the first-serve percentage then she can pose a threat to Halep. She will need to attain high serving percentages against someone who returns as ferociously as Halep. But she will take some solace from their head-to-head rivalry.
Verdict: Halep to win in three sets at 31/10
Alexandrova has held her own against the venerated Halep in their head-to-head duels. They currently share the spoils 2-2. They actually played twice last year, with Alexandrova winning at the Gippsland Trophy and Halep avenging that loss in Stuttgart. Alexandrova actually leads their hardcourt head-to-head matches 2-1. Despite Alexandrova’s commendable record against Halep, I can’t see her repeating the feat this week. She is coming off an absolutely gruelling three-set opener and Halep seems to be reclaiming some of her best form. But for the value, you have to opt for a three-set Halep win. Alexandrova could blow Halep away with one set of powerful serving.
