Damien Kayat previews Andrey Rublev vs Cameron Norrie and Danil Medvedev vs Alex Zverev in the Selected Round of 16 Matches of the Indian Wells Masters, on 14 March 2023.
2023 WTA Tour
WTA 1000
Indian Wells Masters
Indian Wells Tennis Gardens, Indian Wells, California (Outdoor Hardcourt)
Selected Round of 16 Matches – 14th March
Andrey Rublev 66/100 | Cameron Norrie 23/20
This promises to be a blockbuster Round of 16 clash. Yet to win a title this year, 6th seed Andrey Rublev has enjoyed a fairly bizarre season. He began the year with back-to-back first-round defeats in Adelaide.
But he still managed to worm his way into the final eight of the Aussie Open (where he was trounced by an electrifying Novak Djokovic). That loss seemed to affect him as he stumbled to early exits in his next two events. But he retained his composure in Dubai, reaching his first final of the season.
A semi-finalist here last year, Rublev has actually looked quite impressive at Indian Wells. The 12-time ATP champion is yet to drop a set, beating Jiri Lehecka and Ugo Humbert quite comfortably. The ATP 500 assassin has two Masters 1000 finals to his name (the last of which coming at the 2021 Cincinnati Masters).
Does the hard-hitting metronome have the versatility to master these slightly tricky Indian Wells conditions?
Rublev moves from one lefty to another, with British number 1 Cameron Norrie next on his hit list. 27-year-old Norrie has evolved into one of the most accomplished and consistent all-court players in world tennis.
His two wins this week have taken his excellent 2023 record to 20-3. He reached finals in Auckland and Buenos Aires before winning his first title of the year in Rio (beating top seed Carlos Alcaraz in the process).
An archetypal counterpuncher, Norrie shocked the world when he won the title here in 2021. But the relative slowness of these courts plays heavily into his favour. Norrie loves to absorb power and redirect it, relying on his brilliant movement to chase lost causes.
This is what has made him such a formidable opponent at Indian Wells. He was made to work hard last time out, coming back from a set down to take down the unfancied Taro Daniel. But I wouldn’t count on Norrie suffering any hangover effects from that match: he is one of the fittest players on tour.
Verdict: Rublev to win in three at 29/10
Rublev leads 2-1 in the personal rivalry. The Russian breezed past Norrie in their last meeting, dismantling him in straight sets at last year’s US Open. But this could be a different story. Rublev isn’t going to easily penetrate the court with his flat ball-striking.
This is going to give the energetic Norrie more time to engage in the extended rallies that he thrives on. I think he will stick around, frustrating Rublev and taking the match to three sets. But I still have the feeling that Rublev will have what it takes to persevere.
Danil Medvedev 26/100 | Alex Zverev 11/4
Currently the hottest player in men’s tennis, you would think that Russian Daniil Medvedev would have very little to complain about. He is riding a massive wave of momentum, winning his last three tournaments and 16 matches in the process.
This included a resounding straight sets win against Novak Djokovic in Dubai. But he managed to aim an amusing dig at the court conditions during his gruelling three-set win against Ilya Ivashka.
Speaking to the umpire, he threatened to urinate slowly to match the conditions of the court. Medvedev has certainly been one of the top players who has struggled with the pace of play this week.
And he has generally struggled at Indian Wells (this will only be second time he has reached the 4th round here). But he is in absolutely magnificent form and will take some beating.
Alex Zverev is another elite hardcourt player who has struggled to adjust to the conditions this week. He dispatched of the hapless Cachin easily enough in his first match.
But he needed to put it into 5th gear to sneak by the determined Ruusuvuori last time out. The 25-year-old German is slowly starting to regain the form that helped propel him to No.2 in the world rankings.
The Olympic Gold medallist has struggled since returning to action following that horrific ankle injury in last year’s French Open. But a semi-final run in Dubai gave us hints of the Zverev that we all recognise.
He is starting to trust his movement again and will only grow in confidence with each win. But he is going to need a win against one of the big boys before he truly believes he has returned to relevance. And Medvedev certainly falls squarely into that category.
Verdict: Medvedev to win in three sets at 26/10
This is a titanic rivalry, with both players currently sitting on six wins. That would lead you to believe that this has been a rollercoaster head-to-head battle. But look closer. Zverev beat the Russian comfortably in the final of the 2021 ATP Finals. But Medvedev had actually won their previous five matches.
And that was prior to Zverev’s terrible ankle injury. The Russian is surely a huge favourite to see off the rehabilitating Zverev. I can see the German stealing a set off the fatigued Russian. But Medvedev knows how to handle Zverev and will pull through in the end.
