Hubert Hurkacz faces Taylor Fritz and Andrey Rublev takes on Tallon Griekspoor in the round of 16 at teh Madrid Open. Damien Kayat previews.
2024 ATP Tour – Masters 1000
Mutua Madrid Open
La Caja Magica
Selected Ro16 Matches – 30 April 2024
Hubert Hurkacz 1/1 | Taylor Fritz 79/100
27-year-old Hubert Hurkacz is absolutely thriving on the clay this year. The big-serving Pole had never reached a clay-court semi-final prior to this season. But a surprise title run at the Estoril Open seems to have galvanized him.
He hasn’t dropped a set all week, improving his clay-court record for the season to 8-1. He just came through a pretty tough examination against clay-court specialist Altmaier, leaning on his powerful serve and aggressive groundstrokes.
This event is played at altitude, mitigating some of Hurkacz’s issues with movement. The ball almost goes through with the same consistency of an indoor hardcourt. Winner of the 2021 Miami Open and reigning Shanghai Masters champ, Hurkacz has evolved into one of the fiercest competitors at Masters 1000 level.
Victory in this event will solidify his all-court credentials and it should auger well for when he returns to the quicker surfaces.
American Taylor Fritz has also been surprisingly successful on the clay this year. Fritz got off to a great start this year, reaching the quarter-finals of the Aussie Open before winning down in Delray Beach. But his form plateaued during the ‘Sunshine Double’ and he really needed something as we entered the clay-court swing.
And the aggressive, big-serving American is coming off a maiden clay-court final appearance in Munich (he lost to Struff in the final). But it was an encouraging performance that shows a clear evolution in his game.
He still relies heavily on his serve and forehand. But his backhand has improved and isn’t simply there to extend rallies. He just took down clay-court specialist Sebastian Baez in really assured fashion, hitting 16 winners and committing only 10 unforced errors.
He hit nine aces and won a staggering 88% of his first-serve points. Frits- like Hurkacz- seems to be thriving on these relatively quick clay-court surfaces.
Verdict: Fritz to win in straight sets 37/20
Fritz leads the head-to-head 2-1, winning the pair’s last meeting at the 2023 United Cup. I think Fritz is a dangerous dark horse option this week. He looked splendid against clay-court specialist Sebastian Baez, overpowering the Argentine with his serve and brutal forehand. Hurkacz looked somewhat jaded against Altmaier and his hectic recent schedule could come back to bite him in this match.
Andrey Rublev 44/100 | Tallon Griekspoor 17/10
This promises to be a fascinating watch. Andrey Rublev has obviously had his issues at Grand Slam level over the past few years. But you can’t knock his performances in regular ATP Tour events. Rublev reached six finals last year, picking up the biggest title of his career at the Monte-Carlo Masters.
Despite his reputation as a hardcourt specialist, the dynamic Russian has actually enjoyed plenty of success on clay. He has won five clay-court titles in eight career finals (three of those finals coming last season).
Also, he is a two-time finalist at the Monte-Carlo Masters. Those Monte-Carlo courts are painfully slow and really require true clay-court nous. His form this season has been quite erratic. He has 17 wins from 25 matches, picking up his only title at the Hong Kong Open.
He was embarrassed by Nakashima in Barcelona and he needed a decent showing to regain some lost momentum. He has thrived at altitude this fortnight, beating both Bagnis and Davidovich Fokina in straight-sets. He has shown himself to be an astute clay-court practitioner and it would be wrong to dismiss him this week.
Indefatigable Dutchman Tallon Griekspoor has enjoyed some modest success this season, winning 13 out of 22 matches. The highlight of his season was a semi-final run in Dubai. A hardcourt specialist by nature, Greikspoor actually looked quite impressive in Monte-Carlo, eventually going out to de Minaur in three sets.
He struggled in his opener here, eventually overcoming Taro Daniel in three sets. But he looked far more assured last time out, taking down clay-court demon Holger Rune in three sets. A compact player, Griekspoor lacks the type of big weapon that is needed to routinely beat the top pros.
Verdict: Rublev to win in three sets 26/10
The Russian leads the head-to-head rivalry 2-0, outlasting the Dutchman in two three-set matches last season. Griekspoor is a durable player who doesn’t mind engaging in long rallies. He also has the ability to mix things up with slice and drop-shots.
I think his variety gives him a fighting chance against the hitting machine that is Rublev. But I still think that the Russian will persevere and win his third successive three-setter against the Dutchman.
