PREVIEW: UFC Fight Night – Sandhagen vs Nurmagomedov

Sandhagen, known for his striking prowess, looks to thwart Nurmagomedov’s dominant wrestling and earn a title shot. The co-main events bolster an exciting card, promising a night filled with high stakes and top-tier MMA action.

Check out every pick below, including our Top Treble for UFC Fight Night.

Main Event

Cory Sandhagen 49/20 | Umar Nurmagomedov 20/63) (Bantamweight)

Cory Sandhagen is Bantamweight’s nearly-man in that every time he has a bit of momentum driving him to a title shot he gets pegged back. He was 5-0 to start his UFC career before Aljamain Sterling tapped him in the first round and leapfrogged him for a UFC title shot. He destroyed Marlon Moraes via wheel kick and obliterated Frankie Edgar with a flying knee but then lost a close split decision to T.J. Dillashaw, who then leapfrogged him for a title shot.

After a unanimous decision loss to Petr Yan, Sandhagen has regrouped and gone on a three-fight winning streak with victories over Song Yadong, Marlon Vera, and Rob Font.

There’s been no rocky road for Umar Nurmagomedov. Khabib’s cousin is 17-0 with five of those wins coming in the UFC. He’s looked dominant, though that against opposition far below Sandhagen (or anyone Sandhagen has fought in the last four years). Nurmagomedov’s notable wins in the Octagon include a choke against Brian Kelleher in 2022 and a KO against Raoni Barcelos in 2023.

Verdict: Nurmagomedov win 56/100

Although Sandhagen’s takedown defence is good, Nurmagomedov’s relentless wrestling and striking accuracy pose significant challenges. Sandhagen’s best chance lies in striking, but Nurmagomedov’s superior defence and takedown ability make this unlikely. Despite Sandhagen’s reach advantage, his high-risk attacks could be countered effectively. Therefore, it seems likely that Sandhagen will once again be passed over for a title shot, with Nurmagomedov emerging victorious.

Must watch fights

Tony Ferguson’s career downturn is hard to ignore. The 40-year-old “El Cucuy” went from a 12-fight winning streak to suffering six consecutive losses, starting with a TKO by Justin Gaethje during the pandemic. His recent defeats include a decision loss to Paddy Pimblett and a submission to King Green.

Michael Chiesa’s decline stems from injuries. Despite a four-fight winning streak between 2018 and 2021 against notable opponents, he faced setbacks with submission losses to Vicente Luque and Kevin Holland. Predicting a Ferguson vs. Chiesa fight is tough, with oddsmakers favouring Chiesa due to Ferguson’s prolonged losing streak. My prediction is that Chiesa will secure a victory, likely by submission given Ferguson’s recent struggles.

Deiveson Figueiredo debuted at Bantamweight with a decision win over Rob Font and a submission victory over Cody Garbrandt at UFC 300. Marlon Vera, a ten-year UFC veteran, has recently reached elite status, with wins over Font, Edgar, and Cruz. However, he lost to Cory Sandhagen and Sean O’Malley. Vera has a slight size advantage over Figueiredo, but their striking stats are similar. Figueiredo’s power and ground skills give him a slight edge, though both fighters have shown occasional mental lapses. Figueiredo is my pick due to his overall skill set.

Verdict: Chiesa and Figueiredo double at 49/10

Top Treble for UFC Fight Night:

• Vera Win 119/100
• Ferguson Win 21/5
• Mayes Win 37/20

Treble to win at 9/1

Full Card Predictions

Main Card: 21:00 CAT, Saturday, August 3, 2024

• Bantamweight Cory Sandhagen (49/20) vs. Umar Nurmagomedov (20/63): Nurmagomedov
• Middleweight Sharabutdin Magomedov (10/27) vs. Michał Oleksiejczuk (43/20): Magomedov
• Bantamweight Marlon Vera (119/100) vs. Deiveson Figueiredo (100/147): Figueiredo
• Welterweight Tony Ferguson (21/5) vs. Michael Chiesa (3/10): Chiesa
• Women’s Strawweight Mackenzie Dern (10/13) vs. Loopy Godinez (1/1): Dern
• Lightweight Joel Álvarez (5/10) vs. Elves Brener (14/10): Álvarez

Prelims: 18:00 CAT, Saturday, August 3, 2024

• Light Heavyweight Azamat Murzakanov (9/20) vs. Alonzo Menifield (17/10): Murzakanov
• Lightweight Mohammad Yahya (57/20) vs. Kauê Fernandes (10/37): Fernandes
• Heavyweight Shamil Gaziev (10/23) vs. Don’Tale Mayes (37/20): Mayes
• Lightweight Guram Kutateladze (10/27) vs. Jordan Vucenic (9/5): Kutateladze
• Women’s Strawweight Victoria Dudakova (53/100) vs. Sam Hughes (13/10): Dudakova
• Lightweight Jai Herbert (20/29) vs. Rolando Bedoya (119/100): Herbert
• Middleweight Sedriques Dumas (10/27) vs. Denis Tiuliulin (7/4): Dumas