Written by The Caretaker Coach for @Hollywoodbets. Follow them both on Twitter and Facebook now!
Guinea vs Mali | Wednesday 28 January | Mongomo | 20:00
In the less prestigious of the final Group D games, Guinea come up against Mali, again, in a match that should ultimately decide who progresses to the knockout stages. Mali will come into this one as favourites but as with the other group clash, in a ‘winner take all’ situation like this, both sides will be going all-in to ensure their AFCON 2015 run doesn’t end here.
To Win (90mins)
Guinea 21/10
Draw 2/1
Mali 27/20
Guinea
Guinea will be the most impressed of the four sides after two reasonably dull 1-1 draws. Coming in as perceived underdogs, they’ve played sensible tactics against sides much superior than them and their final game on Wednesday night could well be the easiest of the three. Having said that, the pressure of realising how close they are to progressing can quite easily get the better of them. Despite the last meeting between these two sides being just a friendly, Guinea’s 2-1 win will hopefully provide them some psychological advantage to assist them through the upcoming ninety minutes.
Mali
If it weren’t for an 87th minute Ivory Coast goal in their previous match, Mali may well have been sitting in top spot going into this clash. It would’ve been well deserved and just like their opponents on Wednesday night, they’ve dealt with the tougher teams without losing, and a win is all that’s required for them to progress. Of the four sides in Group D, they look to be in the best position to qualify, but obviously with two sides finishing on five points should draws not pervade, then goal difference could well determine who goes through top of the group. This may, again, find advantage with Mali, and hopefully a win by a couple of goals will be enough to finish first.
VERDICT: Mali 27/20
They’ve done the hard graft by seeing out Cameroon and Ivory Coast unbeaten. Although not glamorous, those results have left their fate in their hands and probably a position they would’ve hoped to be in come the last round of group games. Guinea may throw the kitchen sink at this one, but I have to feel that based on things going Mali’s way thus far, the 27/20 for a win is the right way to go in this one.
