Written by @QuintenLetcher for @Hollywoodbets. Follow them both on Twitter and Facebook now!
Argentina vs Australia | Sunday 05 October | Estadio Malvinas Argentinas | 00:40
The Wallabies head for South America to take on Los Pumas in what will be the home side’s greatest chance this season of claiming that ever so elusive maiden Rugby Championship victory. The Aussies were manhandled in the set pieces by a more clinical forward pack when the two sides last clashed on the Gold Coast earlier this season, and quite frankly they were fortunate to come away with the win as the Pumas looked certain to capitalise on a last-minute scrum, only to be denied as Glen Jackson cruelly penalised Tomas Cubelli for an early put-in. Reducing any Test match that involves the South Americans to a battle up front has become a bit of a cliché, but there really is no way to avoid it.
The Argentines have proved their prowess in the forwards once again this season. In stark contrast to the image created by the points table, they’ve caused many a problem at the set pieces for their esteemed opponents throughout this year’s competition, securing a stupendous nine penalties from opposition scrums, more than double that of any other side. The Wallabies, on the other hand, have been by far the least impressive of the four nations come scrum time, winning just 76% of their own put-ins. So, yes, this is yet another game featuring the Pumas that is likely to be won or lost up front, the old fashioned way.
To Win (80mins)
Argentina 19/10
Australia 9/20
Draw 25/1
Handicaps
Argentina (+5.5) 9/10
Australia (-5.5) 9/10
Argentina
Unfortunately for the home side, they’ve been forced to make several changes to their formidable pack for the last outing of the tournament. In the loose forwards, Juan Martin Fernandez Lobbe has left for France to meet his newborn son and Juan Manuel Leguizamon has been sidelined with a calf injury. They are replaced by Rodrigo Baez and Benjamin Macome. In the front row, Nahuel Tetaz Chaparro starts at prop, while Tomas Laviani returns to the engine room after serving a one match ban. In the midfield, Horacio Agulla replaces Marcelo Bosch, who falls to the bench.
Australia
Kurtley Beale was apparently up to his old tricks on the flight from South Africa, getting into a heated argument with one of the management team over a T-shirt, and has subsequently cost himself a spot in the squad for Saturday’s clash. Two changes to the pack for the Wallabies, with James Horwill coming into the second row for the injured Rob Simmons and Scott Higginbotham starting at eight in the injured Ben McCalman’s absence. Coach Ewen McKenzie surely breathed a sigh of relief as Matt Toomua was cleared to play following his concussion tests, and so his formidable midfield pairing of Tevita Kuridrani and Toomua will undoubtedly pester the Argentines as much as they did the Springboks last week.
VERDICT: Australia (-5.5) 9/10
The Pumas are not known for their endurance in this competition, and while I can’t see the Wallabies pulling off anything remotely resembling last year’s 17-54 pummelling in Rosario, I do feel they’ll clear the small 5.5 handicap.
