Written by @QuintenLetcher for @Hollywoodbets. Follow them both on Twitter and Facebook now!
South Africa vs Australia | Saturday 27 September | Newlands | 17:05
Cape Town will host a colossal clash between the Springboks and Wallabies this Saturday in the fifth round of exhilarating Rugby Championship action, and with the two sides currently locked on 10 points apiece, this one is certain to be a cracker. Both sides will be desperate for the win, not only to keep their ever-so-slight title chances alive at this crucial stage of the competition, but more importantly because the coveted second spot on the IRB rankings is up for grabs. The Springboks head into Saturday’s showdown with the added pressure of knowing that a simple victory over their Australian adversaries may very well not be enough to prevent them slipping down into third, but their inspirational performance against the All Blacks in Wellington two weeks back will certainly have boosted their confidence going into this match. The Wallabies may have drawn first blood with that controversial 24-23 win in Perth when the two met back in Round 3, but it is going to take a lot more than just poor officiating and a misjudged kick for touch for them to end their 22-year Newlands drought against a rejuvenated Springbok side.
To Win (80mins)
South Africa 2/7
Australia 3/1
Draw 25/1
Handicaps
South Africa (-8.5) 9/10
Australia (+8.5) 9/10
South Africa
The Springboks pulled off their most convincing performance of the season in their Round 4 clash with the All Blacks two weeks back, but they will need to improve on their ability to turn created opportunities into points if they want the bonus point victory over the Wallabies that they so desperately need to keep their remote title aspirations alive. And even if they manage to collect the maximum points at Newlands, they’ll still need Argentina to deny the All Blacks a fifth point in La Plata if they want their clash with the reigning World Champs at Ellis Park next week to serve as the title decider. Just three changes to the run on side this week. With the crippling loss of specialist openside flanker Francois Louw to injury, Marcell Coetzee has been shifted across the scrum to take over the Bath-based Louw’s role at the breakdowns. Teboho “Oupa” Mohoje earns his first Springbok start this week as he replaces Coetzee at blindside flanker. Ruan Pienaar has been sidelined for at least the next four weeks after picking up a knee injury against the All Blacks, which provides Francois Hougaard with the perfect opportunity to get his foot back in the national door, having last started in the Green and Gold back in the final test against England at Twickenham in 2012.
Australia
The Wallabies have had a fairly decent run in this year’s competition, bar that 51-20 pummelling in the second round of clashes courtesy of their less than friendly neighbours. But they have failed to produce a truly remarkable performance so far this season, which probably has a great deal to do with the peculiar selection policies of haughty head coach Ewen McKenzie. Certainly the most bizarre of these is McKenzie’s misguided notion that Kurtley Beale is a flyhalf, despite his failure in that position on several occasions under McKenzie’s guidance. Beale proved far more valuable at inside centre all through the Super XV season at the Waratahs, and looked more than dangerous when coming on at centre for Matt Toomua against the Springboks in the controversial 24-23 win. I’d even go as far as to say that it was his impact off the bench that swung the game for the Aussies. No final team selection for the Wallabies just yet, but vice-captain Adam Ashley-Cooper has recovered from the injury that kept him out of action against Argentina, and Will Genia, Ben Robinson and Saia Fainga’a were all added to the touring squad that left for South Africa last Friday.
VERDICT: Springboks (-8.5) 9/10
The Springboks are without doubt the more polished of these two sides, despite what the scoreboard in Perth would have you believe. And while I feel that the bonus point victory that they so desperately want to deliver in front of a home crowd is probably a bit ambitious for this young Springbok side, the 8.5 handicap is most certainly not.
