We’re in the Alps for today’s stage which will see the field travel from La Mure – Serre-Chevalier.
A split in the peloton yesterday saw both Louis Meinjes and Dan Martin lose around 30 seconds on their nearest rivals just a day before a stage both would no doubt have been targeting.
Today’s stage sees the first of a two-day foray into the Alps which will have the field tackle a number of iconic climbs – most notably the Col du Galibier and the Izoard – before the final two stages of the race sees the riders return to the flat stuff.
To Win Stage
Warren Barguil 11/2 | Chris Froome 8/1 | Alberto Contador 8/1 | Daniel Martin 8/1 | Romain Bardet 8/1
The Contenders
Chris Froome
We’re not necessarily looking at the best climbers on this stage, we’re looking for the best descenders. Froome has shown in the past that he is an absolute madman going downhill as one of the few riders in the field who pedals in his own – version of the aero-tuck.
Romain Bardet
You only need to cast your mind back to stage five in the 2015 Criterium Du Dauphine where the little Frenchman blitzed the rest of the field in a cracking descent in which he held off the likes of Froome and Tejay van Garderen. He is a rider who will need to take a few risks if he is to have any chance at becoming France’s first Tour winner since Bernard Hinault in 1985.
Rigoberto Uran
The Columbian has become a firm fan-favourite at this year’s Tour and knows he can steal Yellow from Froome over the next three days as the biggest ITT threat to the Brit in the top four. The man can climb and isn’t afraid of a descent. Expect him to attack over the next two days.
The Route
We’re in for an absolute treat today as the field heads into the Alps. These sort of stages suit a different sort of climber to those who generally succeed in the Pyrenees. While the gradients aren’t quite as taxing, the sheer distance that you’re required to travel uphill is insane.
The first Outside Category climb will see the field ascend for 24 kilometres up the Col de la Croix at 5.2% while the beast of the day – the Col du Galibier – requires just under 18 kilometres of climbing at 6.9%.
There will no doubt be a few attacks today, however, this stage will come alive on the slopes of the Col du Galibier. The first few kilometres of the descent are quite technical, we should see the television cameras focussed on a very elite set of riders going up and over the final climb. Expect everyone in the top four to be present with the likes of Nairo Quintana, who prefers these long winding Alpine climbs.
Verdict: Nairo Quintana to beat Alberto Contador (match-ups) 27/20
Quintana, as I mentioned earlier, should feel right at home on a stage like this and should have enough in the tank to beat an ageing Contador on what will be an extremely taxing stage.
Value Bet: Romain Bardet 8/1
The Frenchman needs to take a few risks today and tomorrow if he is to have a shot at winning this race. He’s attacked Froome consistently throughout the race with excellent support from his AG2R teammates. Looks good value for me at 8/1 today.
