COMPREHENSIVE PREVIEW: 2024 US Open

2024 PGA Tour – US Open
Pinehurst No.2 Course, Pinehurst Golf and Country Club
13 – 16 June

Xander Schauffele should consider sending a Christmas hamper to the Louisville Metro police officers who arrested Scottie Scheffler on the eve of last month’s US PGA Championship. Because I don’t know if Schauffele would have won his maiden Major Championship title if Scheffler was completely focused on the task at hand.

Scheffler has been in scintillating form, holding off Collin Morikawa to win his fifth title in seven starts at last week’s Memorial Tournament. The reigning Players and Masters champion is entering Tiger territory in terms of tour domination. Even triple-bogeys can’t stop the New Jersey native from cruising to victory.

Sure, he only won by one shot last week. But there was never any doubt, was there? That new mallet-putter has ironed out his short-game demons and he currently looks about as complete a golfer as I have ever seen.

The undisputed World No.1 will look to further underline his superiority with victory in what is traditionally considered the most difficult Major Championship: the US Open.

The US Open

First staged way back in 1895, this will be the 124th staging of the US Open. The inaugural edition- which was a 36-hole event- was won by Englishman Horace Rawlins. It has been staged as a 72-hole stroke-play event since 1898.

This event was entrenched as the year’s second Major Championship until the ingenious calendar reshuffle back in 2019 (it is now the year’s penultimate Major Championship). But the defining characteristic of this event has always been its exacting nature.

The USGA have developed a well-earned reputation for being the most sadistic tournament organisers in world golf. Since 2000, there have only been four winning scores that have hit double-digits under par. Last year was one of those anomalies, with Wyndham Clark winning at a slightly more forgiving Los Angeles Country Club.

But that shouldn’t be the case this year, with the event returning to one of the most notoriously difficult venues in America: Pinehurst No.2.

Pinehurst No.2

Designed by legendary designer Donald Ross and opened for business back in 1907, this will be the fourth time that Pinehurst No.2 has hosted the US Open. Only four players have finished under par in the three previous editions!

Payne Stewart memorably sank a 20-footer to beat Phil Mickelson by one shot back in 1999 (there is actually a statue of Stewart throwing his winning fist-pump just outside this North Carolinian masterpiece).

For the record, that was the first of six occasions where Mickelson finished runner-up in this event (the only Major he has never won). Michael Campbell- remember him- then withheld a charging Tiger Woods to claim victory back in 2006.

Martin Kaymer then romped home to the title with a sensational performance back in 2014, winning by eight shots in a score of nine-under-par. That was arguably the greatest performance by a European golfer on American soil and serves as a massive outlier on this notorious layout.

Pinehurst No.2 has undergone several renovations over the years. It got the Robert Trent Jones Sr treatment back in 1974 before Rees Jones had a turn in 1996. But Bill Coore and Ben Crenshaw oversaw the biggest overhaul back in 2011, using 1943 aerial shots of the course in an attempt to return it to as close to its original design as humanly possible.

The rough was removed and replaced by sandy waste areas with wiregrass. Players can pick up some awful lies in there and I would say that accuracy will be more important than distance this week (despite the imposing 7,543 yardage).

The putting surfaces are where Pinehurst really bares its teeth. The Bermuda greens are of average size but their turtleback design means that it’s often impossible to hold them (meaning that strong approach play is desirable).

The fiendish runoff areas will leave players in plenty of uncomfortable positions and there will be an absolute premium on scrambling this week. Also, the three US Open winners at Pinehurst have ranked third, third and first in Putting Average. This is a week where the short-game specialists could come into their own.

The contenders

Scheffler will obviously go into this tournament as a huge favourite. His amazing tee-to-green game should see him avoid much of the trouble out there. However, with more of an emphasis on short-game heroics this week, perhaps there is a decent argument to be made against backing Scheffler at increasingly shortening odds.

Schauffele has arguably been the most consistent player in the world outside of Scheffler this season and his game is trending nicely. Rory McIlroy has improved dramatically over the last few months but I still find it hard to back him come Major Championship time.

Major specialist Brooks Koepka finished in a tie for fourth back here in 2014 and he has exactly the sort of temperament to tame this demanding beast of a course.

Elsewhere, the likes of Collin Morikawa and Viktor Hovland have been exemplary in recent weeks and shouldn’t be underestimated. Defending champion Wyndham Clark started the season well but has hit a rough patch of form of late, missing the cut in each of his last two events.

I will also be interested to see how Tiger fares this week. Recent footage of him slurring his words at a charity poker event raised some concern amongst his most ardent fans.

In any event, it’s always exciting to see Tiger in action and he will be only one of three men in the field to have played in the last three editions hosted at Pinehurst No.2 (Mickelson and Kuchar being the others).

Past Winners

2023: Wyndham Clark (-10)
2022: Matthew Fitzpatrick (-6)
2021: Jon Rahm (-6)
2020: Bryson DeChambeau (-6)
2019: Gary Woodland (-13)
2018: Brooks Koepka (+1)
2017: Brooks Koepka (-16)

To Win Outright:

Scottie Scheffler 3/1 | Rory McIlroy 10/1 | Xander Schauffele 11/1 | Collin Morikawa 12/1 | Viktor Hovland 16/1

Value Bets

Max Homa- To Win 33/1 | To Place 7/1

I really think that Max Homa is a wonderful dark horse pick for this year’s championships. He is overpriced due to erratic recent from but I think it’s just a matter of time till the six-time winner clinches a Major Championship. He was right in the mix at Augusta, ultimately settling for a tie for third. He has played his best golf on the tougher courses this season, picking up top 10’s at Bay Hill and Quail Hollow. He is a brilliant iron player who will give himself more birdie opportunities than your average player out there.

Matthew Fitzpatrick- To Win 40/1 | To Place 17/2

I think that Matthew Fitzpatrick could have the game to contend this week. He finished strong on Sunday, shooting a joint-best 69 to finish in a tie for fifth at Jack’s event. That was exactly the type of disciplined performance that will be necessary this week. The last two Pinehurst winners played on the DP World Tour (Kaymer and Campbell). That suggests that this could be a slightly different test to your stereotypical US Open track. Fitzpatrick won at Brookline in 2022 and he also picked up 12th-place finishes at Shinnecock and Pebble Beach. He thrives on exacting courses and his combination of straight driving and solid around-the-green play should be a recipe for success this week. He ranks 9th for Total Driving this season (which is a combination of accuracy and length). Crucially, he has finished inside the top 5 for scrambling in two of the last three Masters. That shows that he knows his way around a tight greenside lie and he could spring a surprise this week.

The Man to Beat- Bryson DeChambeau- To Win 18/1 | To Place 39/10

This just seems like the best value towards the very top of the betting markets. Sure, DeChambeau hasn’t finished inside the top 10 in each of his three previous LIV starts. But the big-driving behemoth has been dialled in at the Majors this year, finishing T6 at Augusta and second at the PGA Championship. His obvious strength off the tee will give him advantages on a par 70 that measures 7,500 yards. But as I said earlier, distance may not be the most consequential stat this week. That being said, DeChambeau will have shorter distances into these pins and that should give him the chance to hold these wicked greens (especially considering he ranks second in the field in Apex Height). He loves using the ‘Texas Wedge’ around the greens and Kaymer did that brilliantly in 2014, putting from everywhere en route to a dominant win. He blew away the opposition to win at Winged Foot in 2020 and it’s about time he picked up that elusive second Major.

Other Bets

Top Left-Handed Player- Brian Harman- 24/10

This looks like safe money to me. Robert Macintyre is trading at 2/1 following his exploits at the RBC Canadian Open. But reigning Open Champion Brian Harman is just ideally suited for this layout. He loves to keep the ball in play and he has a magnificent short game. I think his battle-hardened style is going to mesh nicely with Pinehurst No.2.

Top Canadian- Corey Conners 2/1

I also feel really confident about this one. Conners has been in really solid form of late, finishing in the top 26 in each of his last four outings (including a T26 at Valhalla). He shot under-par at Muirfield on Sunday and I just think his precision from the tee should stand him in good stead this week. He currently sits 8th on tour in SG: Tee-to-Green. He also sits an incredible second in SG: Approach (which should come in handy with these devilishly difficult green complexes). He just needs that putter to fire and he could have a brilliant week.