COMPREHENSIVE PREVIEW: The 152nd Open Championship

2024 DP World Tour – PGA Tour
Open Championship
Royal Troon
18 – 21 July 2024

This has to be my favourite week in the golfing calendar, as the entire world abandons sun-drenched resort courses for the severe beauty of links golf.

Sure, Renaissance did offer us a little glimpse into the idiosyncratic nature of links golf. But conditions were really ideal during last week’s Scottish Open, as Robert Macintyre became only the second Scottish player in history to lift his national title (Monty won back in 1999).

It was a lovely piece of validation for the burly Scot: he had been pipped to the post by McIlroy at last year’s Scottish Open. But early forecasts seem to suggest that this year’s Open Championship will not be as forgiving.

I personally like it when the wind wreaks havoc for a few days (I almost feel shortchanged if we just have nice, benign conditions). I love seeing the players use their ingenuity to combat such conditions, just as Brain Harman did so adroitly at Royal Liverpool last season.

There is just something about this event that feels magical, as if all the players teleport into an Emily Bronte novel for a week.

Open Championship

There have been plenty of reasons to criticise the PGA Tour in recent seasons. But the decision made five years ago to place the Open at the backend of the major championship roster was an inspired one.

It served a dual purpose, elevating the US PGA Championship from afterthought status whilst simultaneously giving this historic event an added sense of grandeur (this is now the final chance for players to capture major championship glory).

The oldest of all four majors, the Open Championship just feels like the right way to bring the major championship season to a close. Organised by the Royal and Ancient Golf Club of St. Andrews (the R&A), the Open Championship is the only major to be played outside of the USA.

Willie Park won the inaugural event in 1860 and this will be the 152nd staging of the event. The event is always staged on a links layout and this year it returns to Royal Troon for the first time since 2016, when Henrik Stenson outlasted Phil Mickelson in one of the all-time great Open Championship duels.

Royal Troon

Troon (named Royal Troon in 1978) dates back all the way to 1870. It is believed to have only consisted of four or five holes in its earliest incarnations (which isn’t entirely uncommon with these ancient links).

Royal Troon has hosted this event on nine previous occasions. And that last renewal, hosted in 2016, will go down as one of the greatest in Open Championship history.

Stenson and Mickelson separated themselves from the field in a performance that evoked Watson and Nicklaus’ iconic ‘Duel in the Sun’ at Turnberry in 1977.

Troon is a traditional seaside links that offers stunning coastal vistas, with the Isle of Arran providing a dramatic backdrop to proceedings. The most iconic hole on offer has got to be the famed 8th. The par-3, affectionately known as the Postage Stamp’, features a tiny green that is guarded by fearsomely deep bunkers.

Tournament organisers are planning to shorten it to less than 100 yards on one of the days and this should make for some edge-of-your-seat viewing.

The par-4 11th, known as the Railway hole, consistently plays as one of the most difficult holes in Open Championship golf, with the Glasgow-Ayr railway encroaching into your field of vision from the right.

I think it always pays to look for players with strong links experience. This is a highly specific challenge and players tend to play less and less pure links these days. Also, a decent week at the Scottish Open has often proved a nice bellwether for success at the Open (eight of the last 12 winners had played in Scotland a week before).

Stats seem to homogenize on links courses and it’s probably best to just look at what has been done at these championships over the last decade or so. Stats suggest that what you do off the tee is largely irrelevant on most links’ layouts.

It really comes down to how many greens you find in regulation and how you manage in and around the greens. A successful short-game was of paramount importance during the 2016 edition, with Stenson and Mickelson finishing the week ranked second and third for Putting Average and 7th and 1st for Scrambling. You simply have to putt and tidy up well on these tricky green complexes.

The Contenders

Scottie Scheffler has won six times in 15 starts this season, firmly establishing himself as the best player in the world. But will he regret taking a full month off leading into this year’s tournament? He has had a crazy year, having his first child and first arrest to go alongside all that success. But I really think it would have behoved him to tee it up at Renaissance.

Rory, Rory, Rory. Can McIlroy possibly recover from that US Open capitulation to contend this year? You have to say that he must be one of the most consistent Major Championship players in history.

But those near-misses are becoming harder to stomach and I find it harder and harder to envisage him lifting the Claret Jug.

Bryson DeChambeau will obviously garner plenty of attention after his title-winning exploits at Pinehurst No.2. He finished inside the top-10 at Valderrama last week and he will be relishing his chance to take to the course as a two-time major champion.

Speaking of LIV, Tyrell Hatton has suddenly burst into life on the LIV Tour, following up his victory in Nashville with a third-place finish at Valderrama. Hatton has proven to be a strong links player in the past and he could be a factor this week.

Xander Schauffele has been a bastion of consistency this season, winning his maiden Major title and finishing in the top 20 in each of his last ten starts! Schauffele won the Scottish Open in 2022 and also finished runner-up in this grand old event back in 2018.

And wouldn’t it be an amazing story if Ludvig Aberg contends this year? The Swede has twice flirted with Major contention this year and he is fresh off a T4 finish at the Scottish Open. He will be looking to make it back-to-back Swedish champions at Royal Troon (Henrik Stenson obviously won here back in 2016).

Also, Tiger Woods will return to action after a pretty embarrassing outing at Pinehurst No.2. He has been seen limping around Royal Troon this week, prompting Colin Montgomerie to call for his retirement. I personally would rather see Woods carried around in a stretcher all week than Monty operating at the height of his powers, but that’s just me.

Past Winners

2023: Brian Harman (-13)
2022: Cam Smith (-20)
2021: Collin Morikawa (-15)
2020: event cancelled
2019: Shane Lowry (-15)
2018: Francisco Molinari (-8)
2017: Jordan Spieth (-12)

To Win Outright:

Scottie Scheffler 9/2 | Rory McIlroy 15/2 | Ludvig Aberg 11/1 | Xander Schauffele 12/1 | Bryson DeChambeau 14/1

Value Bets

Aaron Rai – To Win 80/1 | To Place 17/1

I have to play Aaron Rai again this week (especially given these odds). The top three golfers on the PGA Tour this season for Strokes Gained: Total are Scheffler, Schauffele and McIlroy.

The 4th man on that list is Aaron Rai, placing ahead of the likes of Aberg and Morikawa. Rai came through for me brilliantly last week, finishing in a tie for 4th after a scintillating 7-under-par final round. He now has amazing form figures of T2, T7 and T4.

He finished in a tie for 19th a Pinehurst (a course that doesn’t really fit his profile). Royal Troon should suit Rai down to the bone.

Rai has a terrific short game and he has shown links brilliance before, finishing in the top 20 at the 2022 Open and leading after 54 holes of the 2020 Irish Open. He is in excellent form and 17/1 to place looks extremely inviting.

Louis Oosthuizen – To Win 90/1 | To Place 19/1

Louis Oosthuizen looks a compelling option at these prices (especially to place). The 2010 Open Champion has endured a catalogue of heartbreaking major near-misses.

But he still remains one of the most consistent links performers in the world, finishing in the top 20 in three of his last four Open appearances. And he appears to be having his best season since 2021 (where he finished inside the top three in three of the four majors).

He has four top-five finishes on the LIV Tour this season (including a 4th last week at Valderrama). Your short game has to be in working order to compete at Valderrama and I like him in the place markets.

The Man to Beat – Collin Morikawa- To Win 16/1 | To Place 7/2

2021 Open champ Collin Morikawa just seems to be trending perfectly towards another title run.

Sure, he has inexplicably missed the cut in each of the last two seasons. But the two-time major winner has really rediscovered his mojo this season, picking up seven top-ten finishes.

In fact, his T4 finish at last week’s Scottish Open was his 4th top-five finish in six starts. He has also been well-placed in all three of the major championships this season, stumbling in the latter portions of those events. He currently ranks 12th for SG: Around the Green and I really like his chances this week.

Other Bet

Justin Rose to finish in Top 10 10/1

Justin Rose has endured a pretty torrid campaign, missing more than his fair share of cuts. In fact, the former US Open champion had to come through qualifying to secure his Open Championship spot.

But he just has that inalienable ability to turn it on in the majors (look at his T6 finish at Valhalla earlier this year). He also finished T9 at last year’s US PGA Championship and I think he always stands a chance of backdooring a top-10 finish in a major.

His best Open Championship finish came in 2018, where he finished in a tie for 2nd alongside three other players, just two shots behind Francesco Molinari.