PREVIEW: 2024 DP World Tour – BMW PGA Championship

Oh, to be Rory McIlroy’s sports psychologist. The Northern Irish superstar is one of the leading figures in the game, but he is starting to build a reputation for choking in high-pressure situations.

His US Open collapse at Pinehurst No.2 was devastating to behold and he once again folded under pressure to lift a DP World Tour title at last week’s Irish Open, blowing a four-stroke advantage to lose to a fast-finishing Rasmus Hojgaard.

He lamented his misfortune, stating that he is unfortunately “getting used” to these near misses. He will be hoping to claim a maiden BMW PGA Championship title to alleviate the disappointment.

BMW PGA Championship

This week’s BMW PGA Championship will be the 3rd of five Rolex Series events to be played this season (Robert MacIntyre won the last elevated event at the Renaissance Club). This is the tour’s flagship event and one of the most iconic non-majors in world golf.

This event originated in 1955 when it was originally known as the British PGA Championship. The BMW PGA Championship has been the flagship event of the DP World Tour since its inception in 1972.

Previously staged in May, the event was moved to an autumnal spot in 2019 (necessitated by the US PGA Championship being brought forward in the calendar). The decision to push this down the schedule has proved to be an inspired one.

The tournament doesn’t have to compete with the chaotic FedEx Cup and major championship golf schedule. Last year’s event was a real humdinger, with the entire European Ryder Cup team choosing to tee up at Wentworth.

This year’s field won’t be quite as illustrious but will nonetheless feature plenty of big names. This will be the 41st consecutive staging of this event at the iconic Wentworth Club.

Wentworth Club

Wentworth is arguably the most famous non-links course in British golf. The Harry Colt-design was opened in 1926 but has undergone various renovations since, with Ernie Els overseeing tinkering as recently as 2016. The 18th had become a comically easy par-5 by modern standards.

But the introduction of a stream in front of the green has added a tantalizing risk-reward element that makes for riveting viewing. Wentworth is a famously tight, tree-lined heathland track. Having said that, these fairways are nowhere near as daunting as those at Valderrama.

Stats suggest that what is done off the tee is largely irrelevant here. In fact, there has been a slight shift towards distance over accuracy in recent years. I still think that approach play will be the key ingredient to success this week.

In fact, 11 of the last 18 winners have finished inside the top four in GIR. The elevated greens are small and quick, meaning there will be an added emphasis on scrambling skills. This is also a very nuanced course that tends to reward familiarity. So, it would probably behove you to focus on players with solid course credentials.

The Contenders

Nine of last year’s victorious Ryder Cup side will be in the field this week. Rory McIlroy will obviously attract the bulk of attention this week but a strong English contingent – featuring the likes of Tommy Fleetwood and Matthew Fitzpatrick – should also attract plenty of buzz.

2022 champion Shane Lowry is always a popular draw while Rasmus Hojgaard will be looking to make it back-to-back wins following his barnstorming finish at Royal County Down.

Defending champion Ryan Fox will be in action while Si Woo-Kim will be making his maiden appearance at Wentworth. 2021 champ Billy Horschel is an ever-popular figure in these parts and Viktor Hovland will be looking for some late-season confidence after a humdrum season.

Past Winners

2023: Ryan Fox (-18)
2022: Shane Lowry (-17) *54 holes
2021: Billy Horschel (-21)
2020: Tyrell Hatton (-19)
2019: Danny Willett (-20)
2018: Francesco Molinari (-17)

To Win Outright:

Rory McIlroy 11/2 | Tommy Fleetwood 10/1 | Adam Scott 12/1 | Shane Lowry 12/1 | Billy Horschel 18/1

Value Bets

Alex Noren- To Win 22/1 | To Place 48/10

Alex Noren is a lovely dark horse contender to win this week. The Swede is fresh off a wonderfully metronomic season on the PGA Tour, missing just three cuts in 21 starts this season.

Moreover, he finished inside the top 25 in 13 of those events! He finished 3rd at the CJ Cup Byron Nelson and picked up further top-10 finishes at the Cognizant Classic, Scottish Open and BMW Championship.

He ranks T3 in Scrambling on the PGA Tour this year (which should come in handy around these tricky green complexes). He hasn’t teed it up here since 2021, but he does possess some fantastic Wentworth history, winning the title in 2017 and finishing 3rd in 2018.

Laurie Canter – To Win 55/1 | To Place 12/1

34-year-old Englishman Laurie Canter could be an interesting option this week (especially in the place markets). He never took long to prosper on the DP World Tour following his brief stint with LIV, winning at Green Eagles back in June.

Canter has been quietly consistent of late, finishing in a tie for 17th at Royal County Down last week. In fact, he has finished inside the top 25 in each of his last three starts in the British Isles. Canter also has a genuine course history, finishing one stroke behind champion Billy Horschel in the 2021 edition of this event.

The Man to Beat – Aaron Rai – To Win 18/1 | To Place 39/10

Aaron Rai just looks like incredible value at 18/1. He finished joint runner-up here last year (just a shot behind eventual winner Ryan Fox).

He has enjoyed a stellar season on the PGA Tour, winning the Wyndham Championship and qualifying for the Tour Championship for the first time. He had a rare off-week at Royal County Down, but I expect the World No.22 to bounce back hard this time around.

He is a brilliant iron player who should be able to find these elevated greens with ease.