Written by @Matt_Cee for @Hollywoodbets. Follow them both on Twitter and Facebook now!
The Portugal Masters | Thursday 09 October – Sunday 12 October | Oceanico Victoria Golf Club
The European Tour heads to Portugal this week for the Portugal Masters and after Oliver Wilson surprised everyone and more than likely left a lot of punters out of pocket after the Alfred Dunhill, this should present the perfect opportunity to make some of those losses back. The event will be hosted at the Oceanico Victoria Golf Club, a 7,200 yard par 71 course that plays pretty easy. The course features a number of short par 4s, with birdies and even eagles commonplace and with scores in the region of -20 being recorded regularly, the first key stat is putting. Apart from that, keep an eye on players who are good with their short irons as hitting greens in regulation will be another important factor. Keep in mind that there are only five events left in the regular season before the Race to Dubai finale and a good finish here could make a player’s season. Those floating around 110 in the Race to Dubai standings can ensure they avoid Q-School with a solid finish, and further up the standings players will be aiming to scramble into the Top 60 to give themselves a chance at playing in the final.
To Win Outright
Shane Lowry 14/1
Tommy Fleetwood 14/1
Bernd Wiesberger 16/1
Robert Karlsson 22/1
Danny Willet 28/1
VALUE BETS
Ricardo Gonzalez (110/1 a win, 24/1 a place)
This one is definitely a bit of a long shot but at such a generous price Ricardo Gonzalez looks to be a great value bet. He started off the season poorly and was really struggling, but over the past few months he has gone from strength to strength and should arrive here confident that he can make some birdies and give himself a chance. With the generous fairways and his ability with the putter there’s little reason why Gonzalez can’t make a lot of birdies and improve on the seventh place finish he managed last week. I’m backing Gonzalez each way here and will also be backing him to come inside the Top 10. You should do the same.
Alexander Levy (70/1 a win, 15/1 a place)
Another great bet this week looks to be Alexander Levy, who seems to be in form at the moment and will relish the opportunity to play on a course that suits his game perfectly. Levy has already won once this season, that victory coming in the China Open at the beginning of the year and last week he threatened to cause a major upset at the Alfred Dunhill Links Championship when he was near the top of the leaderboard entering the final day. He’ll arrive here hoping he can find himself in the same position entering the final round on Sunday and with his game in the shape it’s in at the moment, there is no reason that won’t be the case. Each way is the bet for me here.
Bernd Wiesberger (16/1 a win, 7/2 a place)
Regular readers of these articles will know that I love to tip the talented Austrian and this week is no different as Bernd Wiesberger looks like he could be a serious contender once again. He arrives in Portugal with his game looking to be in great form and with Top 15 finishes in his last four events, the time looks to be right for Bernd to claim victory in a tournament that he has come agonisingly close to winning in the past. In 2012 he finished fourth and that was followed by a T3 last year. Will he go one better now? I think so.
TOP BET: Shane Lowry (14/1 a win, 31/10 a place)
I’m finding it tough to ignore Shane Lowry these days and for pretty good reason. The Irishman is in some pretty outstanding form at the moment and looks like he could win almost every time he starts. Last week he managed to finish T6 and that was preceded by a second in the Welsh Open. Those finishes were his best of late but Lowry rarely finds himself outside the Top 15 these days and will be looking forward to returning to a course he won on in 2012. A previous winner in great form. Lowry certainly looks the best bet of the week.
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