Written by @Matt_Cee for @Hollywoodbets. Follow them both on Twitter and Facebook now!
Volvo China Open | Thursday 24 April – Sunday 27 April | Genzon Golf Club
This week the Volvo China Open celebrates its twentieth anniversary but a lot has changed since the tournament’s inception, including the course on which it is played. This instalment will be hosted at the Genzon Country Club, an unknown entity which has never hosted a professional tournament so course form is out the window and any information we have is collected through research. What we have managed to find out is that the course plays short and measures in at a mere 7,145 yards. An image search shows that it is your typical Chinese course and it features a number of lakes and forests so expect the fairways to be tight and narrow. Clearly, accuracy off the tee is key and so focus will be on those who can hit the fairway rather than those who can hit it long. With this being an unknown course, course management will also be important so look out for the more experienced players in the field. So who has it in them to win here? Let’s have a look.
To Win Outright
Henrik Stenson 15/2
Ian Poulter 9/1
Jason Dufner 12/1
Francesco Molinari 22/1
Nicolas Colsaerts 28/1
VALUE BETS
Pablo Larrazábal (28/1 a win, 48/10 a place)
Pablo Larrazábal loves China and his record in the country proves that. A T5 in last year’s BMW Masters and a T10 and T8 in consecutive instalments of this tournament all point to the fact that he feels comfortable in the country. Despite the fact this is a new course, he should go far. He really enjoys the shorter tracks and if he comes here and hits his irons as well as we know he can, there’s no reason he won’t finish inside the Top 5. Each way is the bet for me.
Nicolas Colsaerts (28/1 a win, 48/10 a place)
Nicolas Colsaerts hasn’t been faring as well as he’d hoped on the US Tour and so he has been off my radar for a while, but burst onto it with an impressive second-place finish last week and looks a good bet again this time around. That finish was the result of some really confident ball striking and a ranking of first in GIR%, had he been better with his putter, he could have edged Lee Westwood out. He’s another player who has fared well in China and a win in this tournament in 2011 was followed by a second in 2012. Overall he looks a great bet this week.
Julien Quesne (45/1 a win, 77/10 a place)
Julien Quesne can always be backed to fare well on the shorter, tighter tracks and this course should suit him to a tee. He rarely misses the fairway off the tee box and knows how to hit his irons close to the pin so he should be able to avoid the water here this week and make his share of birdies. A T5 in Malaysia was impressive considering that the course didn’t suit him but he putted really well and the tenacity he showed only makes me think that he’s going to go close this week. Each way on Quesne is the bet for me here.
TOP BET: Gregory Bourdy (50/1 a win, 17/2 a place)
It’s amazing to see Bourdy available at 50/1 this week. Despite the fact that he has yet to win this season, he has been ultra-consistent and he is hitting the ball as well as anyone on Tour at the moment. A ranking of seventh in GIR% and fourth in driving accuracy will stand him in good stead here and if he can sort his putting out he will finish close to the top. If he carries on playing like he has been, he has to win sometime this year. Let’s hope that he finds that victory here. Each way on Bourdy could be a profitable bet so get on.
