PREVIEW: LIV 2024 – LIV Golf Mayakoba

LIV Golf 2024
LIV Golf Mayakoba
El Camaleon Golf Club, Playa del Carmen, Mexico
2nd-4th February

There is a little bit of pressure on LIV Golf this week. Sure, they have managed to snag Jon Rahm- one of the most explosive players in world golf- at a highly exorbitant price. But that means they are running out of excuses for why people are not watching their new ‘product’. DJ, Brooks, Bryson and now Rahm.

Financial rumblings aside, this is now an elite golfing roster (not to mention the late acquisitions of Adrian Meronk and Tyrell Hatton). We all know that the Saudi-backed series has seemingly endless financial resources. But how long can it endure if people don’t care about it?

This year marks the fourth season of LIV Golf. This will be the second consecutive 14-event season and LIV Golf Mayakoba will once again kick off the new festivities.

El Camaleon Golf Club

This week’s destination- El Camaleon Golf Club- will be quite familiar to US PGA Tour enthusiasts. Formerly the host of the now-defunct Mayakoba Golf Classic, El Camaleon made its debut on the LIV roster last season (with Charles Howell III eventually taking home the individual title).

LIV mastermind Greg Norman- in perfectly Machiavellian fashion- was actually the man who designed this stunning course. This is a visually striking layout, weaving its way through jungle, mangrove and striking oceanfront.

It is a short, finicky track that is at the mercy of the elements. Players will need to avoid the sticky rough and remain accurate with their irons. The Sea Isle Paspalum greens are quite idiosyncratic and course experience will be useful in taming them.

The Contenders

All eyes will obviously be on 500-million-dollar man Jon Rahm. Rahm’s decision to join LIV was quite an abrupt turnaround for someone who once said that LIV money wouldn’t make any difference to him.

Rahm probably looks at how Koepka has thrived in Major championship golf despite joining LIV, realizing that he can still attain prestige while making generation-securing money. Talor Gooch won last year’s individual contest (closely followed by Cam Smith and Brooks Koepka).

DJ was much patchier last season and will be hoping for a far-improved 2024 campaign. Cameron Smith was consistent throughout last year’s campaign and who can forget Bryson DeChambeau’s 58 at the Greenbrier. The arrival of Rahm may put an onus on these guys to elevate their game this year.

Past Winner

2023: Charles Howell III

To Win Outright:

Jon Rahm 47/10 | Joaquin Niemann 14/1 | Tyrell Hatton 14/1 | Bryson DeChambeau 14/1 | Cameron Smith 16/1

Value Bet

Carlos Ortiz- To Win 33/1 | To Place 7/1

This is a good, old-fashioned ‘horse for courses’ pick. Mexican Carlos Ortiz was a LIV free agent in the offseason and he recently joined the Torque team alongside Niemann. I’m basically chasing the value this week, with Carlos Ortiz finishing runner-up on this course in 2019 and 2021. He enjoyed a consistent LIV season in 2023, ending up with seven top-12 finishes. This included a playoff defeat at the LIV Tucson event. He also finished in a tie for sevnth here last season and I really think he represents excellent value in the place markets.

The Man to Beat- Joaquin Niemann- To Win 14/1 | To Place 3/1

I find Rahm’s pricing this week way too short for my liking. He hasn’t played since the DP World Tour Championship and this is a tricky, fidgety layout. I much prefer Joaquin Niemann. The Chilean must be the best LIV player not to own a title as of yet (new recruits excluded). Niemann will have less rust than most this week, finishing fifth at the Australian PGA Championship and winning the Australian Open during the Aussie swing. He also finished in a tie for fourth at the Dubai Desert Classic a few weeks back. This breezy Mayakoba test will be a great place to build on that Emirates effort. He finished 11th here last year but he did finish fifth here when he last played on the US PGA Tour.