LIV Golf returns from a month-long hiatus for the first regular-season edition of LIV Golf Miami. Damien Kayat shares all of his best bets and tips for the tournament.
2024 LIV Golf Series
LIV Golf Miami
Trump National Doral
5 – 7 April
Miami- and more specifically Trump National Doral- has hosted the season-ending Team Championship in each of the last two seasons. This will be the first time that we see a full-blown individual tour event staged here.
LIV will aim to monopolise the golfing spotlight this week as Augusta-mania starts to kick into overdrive. 13 LIV practitioners will be teeing up in Georgia next week and it will be interesting to see how they approach this outing.
Defending Masters champion Jon Rahm is still in search of his maiden LIV victory but I don’t think he will be going into overdrive to secure it at Doral. They wouldn’t admit it, but guys like Koepka and Rahm will essentially be using this event as a glorified practice session (albeit with some tantalizing financial incentives attached to it).
Trump National Doral
I have this involuntary flinch every time I see the Trump name emblazoned on a golf course (my liberal constitution just gets the better of me). But there’s no denying the majesty of the ‘Blue Monster’.
Doral is a sweeping par-72 behemoth that measures well over 7,500 yards. It has very narrow fairways and water is in play on virtually every hole. The combination of silly length and narrow fairways puts a premium on powerful yet accurate driving (think prime Dustin Johnson).
You can’t just come out here and swing Happy Gilmore-style. But length will certainly be a major benefit if you can keep it relatively safe. Bunkers protect the greens like overzealous bouncers and there will be a real premium on accurate approach play this week.
This course used to host the now-defunct WGC-Cadillac Championship between 2007 and 2016, with the likes of DJ, Reed and Mickelson already tasting success here. The weather forecast seems to indicate pretty benign conditions and I think you can expect to see a winning score of around 13-under-par come Sunday.
The Contenders
As I noted earlier, many of the big guns will be using this as their final chance to finetune their game ahead of the mythic Masters adventure. This could present an opportunity for some of the mid-level guys to rise up the leaderboard.
Having said that, I still think the cream will rise to the top on this golf course. Jon Rahm should suit this test like a glove but I just have my reservations about backing him so close to Augusta.
Joaquin Niemann has been the hottest player on tour this season and he certainly has the attributes to succeed this week. Bryson and DJ will always be a factor in conditions such as these and Abraham Ancer will be looking to make it back-to-back wins after his triumph in Hong Kong.
2023 breakout LIV star Talor Gooch will be looking to bounce back after breaking his sequence of top-15 finishes with a T21 showing in Hong Kong. LIV will be desperate to garner some airplay in Miami as the traditional golfing establishment gears up for another iconic Masters outing.
To Win Outright:
Jon Rahm 13/2 | Joaquin Niemann 7/1 | Bryson DeChambeau 10/1 | Cameron Smith 12/1 | Dustin Johnson 14/1
Value Bet
Paul Casey- To Win 25/1 | To Place 11/2
47-year-old Englishman Paul Casey just looks like a no-brainer at this price. Casey really is a statistician’s wet dream this week, ranking firsst in GIR, fourth in fairway percentage and third in scrambling. Casey has built his career on a remarkable tee-to-green game and that is exactly what is needed at Doral. It just so happens that the Englishman is also in excellent form. He finished T5 in Vegas and surged into a three-man playoff at LIV Hong Kong. He finished solo sixth last time out in Singapore and I really think his brand of metronomic tee-box destruction is what is needed here. Currently sitting fourth in the LIV standings, Casey will have a point to prove as he is set to miss Augusta National for a third successive season.
The Man to Beat- Joaquin Niemann- To Win 7/1 | To Place 15/10
Scottie Scheffler aside, Joaquin Niemann has to be the most in-form player in world golf. The Chilean has eight top-ten finishes in his last nine worldwide starts. That includes three victories (two of which coming on this year’s LIV Golf Tour). He was T4 in Hong Kong last time out, surging back to podium contention with a final round 63. He just fits the bill beautifully this week. He sits second in Driving Distance for those players who hit over 50% of the fairways (trailing only Bryson). But he also lies T2 for GIR. That combination of controlled power and strong approach play makes him a great candidate around this imposing layout.
