Written by @Matt_Cee for @Hollywoodbets. Follow them both on Twitter and Facebook now!
OHL Classic | Thursday 13 November – Sunday 16 November | El Camaleon
The final PGA Tour event of 2014 tees off this week in sunny Mexico at the beautiful El Camaleon course and although the field is weak, this looks like it’s going to get interesting. The 6,987 yard par 71 course is one of the more picturesque on the Tour but don’t let the setting fool you, on its day it can pose some real challenges. Located on the coast and bordering the beach, when the wind picks up the course becomes particularly difficult. Even when things are still, the course doesn’t play easy. Accuracy off the tee is of particular importance despite the fact that the fairways are fairly generous. There are a number of hazards lining the fairways that need to be avoided and wayward drives have the potential to be punished severely. Deep bunkers make life difficult for players who find themselves in the sand and those drives that stray into the thick forest that lies beyond them won’t be found.
If players can find the fairways and avoid trouble their prospects of making birdies increase significantly as the greens aren’t particularly difficult. The real issue will be playing approaches in the wind so if it does start to blow, keep an eye on players who have fared well on similar coastal layouts in the past. So who will win here? Let’s have a look.
To Win Outright
Harris English 20/1
Robert Streb 20/1
Charles Howell 28/1
Russell Knox 30/1
Ben Martin 33/1
VALUE BETS
Cameron Tringale (66/1 a win, 14/1 a place)
Cameron Tringale’s biggest weakness is his inability to get any sort of distance off the tee and were it not for that, he would almost certainly have a few more wins under his belt. Never mind that though, this week he will arrive at El Camaleon confident that his accuracy off the tee will stand him in good stead on a course that demands precision and solid course management. He’s been playing well over the playoffs and looked particularly impressive in the Barclays where he finished second. 66/1 is a great price against this field so I’m backing him each way.
William McGirt (40/1 a win, 87/10 a place)
William McGirt looked great in the Barclays when he finished fifth and last week in the Sanderson Farms Championship he showed flashes of that brilliance and was rewarded with a Top 10 finish. He’s been quoted as saying that he enjoys playing on courses that reward accuracy as, like Tringale, he struggles with his distance off the tee. Although he’s never shot the lights out in this event, he will arrive here with some form behind him and should go far. Each way is the bet for me.
Brian Stuard (35/1 a win, 77/10 a place)
Given his form in this tournament, no-one can ignore Stuard this week. He’s been runner-up here twice in previous instalments, the most recent of which came last year where he was narrowly edged out by Harris English. He also seems to have found a bit of form recently and looked good in the CIMB Classic where he finished T13. 35/1 looks about right, there’s a very good chance he’ll be in the mix come Sunday. Each way here is the bet for me.
TOP BET: Rory Sabbatini (35/1 a win, 77/10 a place)
South Africans have a tendency to win tournaments around Christmas time and having backed George Coetzee in Turkey and now Rory Sabbatini, I’m hoping that holds true this year. Sabbatini has begun his season with a bang and looked to be in good form in the CIMB Classic where he finished T8. He also loves this course and finished T3 here last year. His game suits this course to a tee and I think he’s going to go very close this week.
