Damien Kayat has an in-depth look at the Valero Texas Open which takes place at TPC San Antonio between 4 – 7 April.
2019 US PGA Tour | Valero Texas Open
TPC San Antonio (Oaks Course, San Antonio, Texas)
Thursday 4 April – Sunday 7 April 2019
I have to admit, outside of the histrionics of Ryder Cup action (perhaps my favourite sporting event), I don’t particularly relish match-play golf. The WGC Matchplay made for a bizarrely muted spectacle, particularly as the weekend wound down and the matches dwindled. I’m thoroughly relieved for the return of stroke-play and the last event before next week’s momentous Masters. This is one of the oldest events on the tour having first been staged way back in 1922. In a scheduling reshuffle, the Texas Open has replaced the Houston Open as the entrée for Augusta. TPC San Antonio will host the event for the 10th consecutive time, with only 17 Augusta bound players teeing it up this week.
TPC San Antonio is a Greg Norman design that was only opened as recently as 2010. It is a tough track that winds its way through a labyrinthine series of oak trees. The fairways are of varying length and neither driving accuracy nor driving distance has proved imperative in recent years. The key stats seems to lie in scrambling and putting, with the Bermuda set-up likely to be reminiscent of Sawgrass: it will be interesting to see if there’s any attempt to mimic conditions expected at Augusta next week. Four of the last five winners have finished inside the top five for putting average. There is little wind forecast this week as players look to sharpen their skills ahead of the year’s first major.
Jordan Spieth will be desperately looking for anything to build some confidence ahead of next week. He is yet to pick up a top 30 in six appearances this season. The affable Texan needs to regain the putter as he looks to build up a head of steam. Ricky Fowler’s choice to eschew the WGC Matchplay in favour for this event actually makes sense to me. Why risk seven rounds of golf in match-play conditions last week when you can iron out your stroke-play credentials a week prior to the big one. Matt Kuchar will likely struggle with the physical load after last week while Tony Finau looks to jumpstart a slightly sedate season. And how about this for a carrot: If any of the 129 players as yet not qualified for Augusta wins this week, they will be booking a whirlwind trip to Georgia next week
Past Winners
2018: Andrew Landry (-17)
2017: Kevin Chappell (-12)
2016: Charley Hoffman (-12)
2015: Jimmy Walker (-11)
2014: Steven Bowditch (-8)
Betting Favourites (To Win)
Ricky Fowler (10/1)
Tony Finau (16/1)
Jordan Spieth (18/1)
Matt Kuchar (18/1)
Billy Horschel (28/1)
Value Bets
Abraham Ancer – To Win (40/1), To Place (17/2)
While Ancer nominally plays under the Mexican flag, he actually shares dual citizenship having been born in Texas. Ancer plays well in this area, finishing 8th a year ago in the Houston Open. He putted beautifully for the first three day of the Players- where he would ultimately finish 12th. He should embrace these Bermuda greens. He also played well at the WGC, unfortunately running into an inspired Paul Casey in his opening tie. He won his last two matches in grand style, sitting at 8 under through 15 against Charles Howell III. He won’t be phased by Masters Qualification pressure and should be a real factor this week.
Jimmy Walker – To Win (60/1), To Place (13/1)
This is one towards the speculative end of the market. But in a slightly weakened field such as this, a former Major Champion always presents an opportunity: just look at Graeme McDowell last week. He clearly hasn’t been the same since being diagnosed with Lyme disease. The Texan comes in here with virtually no form: a top 30 at the CJ Cup last year has been his best PGA Tour performance thus far this campaign. However, the 2016 PGA Championship winner simply loves playing in this event. He has finished inside the top 20 in four of his last five trips to TPC San Antonio. That included a victory in 2015 and 4th last year.
The Man to Beat
Jim Furyk – To Win (30/1), To Place (13/2)
I just have to take a shot at the metronome of men’s golf: Jim Furyk. The 48-year-old Ryder Cup captain has been playing outrageously consistent golf over the past few weeks, making his 30/1 look very appealing in this field. Furyk’s amazing comeback from injury culminated in a herculean run at the Players Championship. Seriously, his one shot defeat to Rory McIlroy had Laureus Sports Awards written all over it. He finished 2nd in putting average at Sawgrass, which leads me to believe he should thrive on these greens. He also currently sits 1st in driving accuracy on the PGA Tour.
