Damien Kayat has an in-depth look at the Valspar Championship which takes place at Copperhead Course between 21 – 24 March.
US PGA Tour 2019 | Valspar Championship
Copperhead Course, Innisbrook Resort, Palm Harbour, Florida
Thursday 21 March – Sunday 24 March 2019
Phew! Still seem to be catching my breath following last week’s dramatic final day at TPC Sawgrass. Around a dozen players flirted with contention before Rory McIlroy further underlined his growing legend by claiming golf’s fifth most glamorous prize. The burgeoning reputation of the Valspar will no doubt gain further traction with the tour’s newly revamped schedule. Let’s not forget, this event started its life in 2000 as an opposite event in the autumn. It now forms the final leg of the Florida swing and is far more prestigious in stature. In fact, three players will have a shot at redemption this week following the Players. Jon Rahm’s disastrous decision on the 11th cost him a chance of claiming the Players. His Jekyll and Hyde act on the weekend was tough to watch. Jason Day and Dustin Johnson will feel far more confident about their surges at TPC Sawgrass.
Designed by Larry Packard and opened in 1974, Copperhead actually underwent a restoration as recently as 2015. The fairways are now Celebration Bermuda while the greens are Tif Bermuda, fairly similar to conditions last week. Much like Sawgrass, this is a course that relies heavily on dog-legged holes and water. Wind often proves a factor in this tough, tree-lined test. The par 3’s are notoriously difficult while the last three holes are known – rather ominously – as the Snake Pit. In each of the last six years, this event has been either the toughest or second toughest par 71 on tour. Finding the smaller than average greens will be crucial this week in an event that rewards precision.
As I noted earlier, the trio of Johnson, Rahm and Day will be looking for solace following last week. Defending champion Paul Casey returns while Sergio Garcia and Henrik Stenson will be looking to hone their skills with the Masters approaching. Patrick Reed was a runner-up here last season and needs a boost ahead of his Augusta defence. Elsewhere, Jim Furyk will be looking to double up following a magnificent runner-up finish last week. The former runner-up is now injury free and loves these Floridian conditions.
Past Winners
2018: Paul Casey (-10)
2017: Adam Hadwin (-14)
2016: Charl Scwartzel (-7)*playoff
2015: Jordan Spieth (-10)*playoff
2014: John Senden (-7)
Betting Favourites (To Win)
Dustin Johnson (5/1)
Jon Rahm (10/1)
Jason Day (11/1)
Sergio Garcia (16/1)
Webb Simpson (20/1)
Value Bets
Jason Kokrak – To Win (45/1)
Jason Kokrak has a bit of a feast or famine approach to this event. He generally finishes inside the top 10 or misses the cut. He was 8th here last season and 7th in 2015. But he has also missed four cuts since 2011. But his course form dovetails nicely with excellent recent form this week. A tie for 47th at the Players aside, Kokrak has been excellent of late. He has five top 20’s in his last 6 events. That included a tie for 10th at Arnold Palmer’s event at Bay Hill. He also finished with rounds of 68 and 68 at the Honda Classic. He is currently 4th on tour for strokes gained approaching the green. That will prove a vital stat in this celebration of iron play precision.
Brandt Snedeker – To Win (45/1)
Brandt Snedeker’s heroic charge at the Players just came a smidge late as he was forced to search for something on the 18th. It was quite incredible just how far right he pushed that drive. But a 5th place finish and bonafide contention would have felt great for Snedeker. It seemed to justify his reunion with former coach Todd Anderson. He claimed the FedEx Cup under Anderson and seems to have already recaptured some of that lustre. Snedeker was 9th in approach play last week and will feel extremely confident this week. He was 4th here in 2011 and played alongside Tiger here last year. He shot a 67 on Saturday to put him one shot off the lead. But a disastrous 78 on Sunday put pay to his tournament chances.
The Man to Beat
Patrick Reed – To Win (22/1)
Reed hasn’t had an explosive year by any means, but six top 25’s in eight starts tells me that he isn’t a mile away from his best. And three opening rounds of 69 at TPC Sawgrass seemed to indicate a real progression for the Texas native. Reed is an obvious choice at Copperhead. He finished alongside Tiger Woods in the runner-up slot last season. That was his third top 10 in his last four visits to Copperhead. He currently sits in 18th for shots gained around the green and will be looking to hone those specific skills ahead of his trip back down Magnolia Lane.
