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PREVIEW: 2022/2023 US PGA Tour – 3M Open

Damien Kayat previews the 2023 3M Open.

Damien Kayat previews the 2023 3M Open.

Two women looking excitedly at cellphone

I think having a 125/1 longshot come through for you is worthy of a victory lap. Brian Harman’s imperious display at Royal Liverpool really came as little surprise to me. I was mesmerized by his unerring accuracy at Renaissance and knew that he had the capacity to keep the ball in play. His ruthless display made Sunday’s final round something of a damp squib. The likes of Rahm and McIlroy briefly flirted with contention before succumbing to the elements in pretty dire conditions. But Harman was undaunted by the occasion, picking up his maiden Major title with a performance of surgical precision. His putting from 15 feet or so was almost comedically efficient and I can see the lefty contending at tough Major layouts in the future.

This week’s trip to Minnesota stands in stark contrast to the rustic eeriness of Hoylake. The tour moves to Blaine- a suburb north of to Minnesota- for the 5th renewal of the 3M Open. This event actually succeeded the 3M Championship (a PGA Tour Champions event that ran for 26 years). That event was essentially elevated to full PGA Tour status in 2018 and was rebranded the 3M Open. This could prove to be a fascinating week. Many of the leading contenders will be in decompression mode following the taxing week at Hoylake. But the PGA Tour bubble boys will know that this will be their penultimate opportunity to secure their place at the FedEx Cup Series. This would be a wonderful week for fringe players to secure their top 125 status (anything to avoid an anxiety-inducing week at the Wyndham Championship).

This will be the 5th consecutive edition of this event hosted at TPC Three Cities. TPC Twin Cities was a long-time host of the PGA Tour Champions event. This Arnold Palmer-design was opened in 2000 and it’s quite a contrast to the perilous threat of Royal Liverpool. This flat parkland layout should be a cakewalk for these pros. The bentgrass greens are extremely accessible and this really boils down to a birdie-fest. David Frost won a PGA Tour Champions title here with a score of 25-under par (in just three rounds). That tells you all you need to know about TPC Twin Cities. That being said, there are 27 bodies of water to avoid on this lush layout. Stats seem to suggest that what you do off the tee is largely irrelevant around TPC Twin Cities (though distance should be favoured slightly over accuracy). Look for players with a strong approach game who are able to putt the lights out this week.

There will obviously be a dearth of big-name players in the wake of a Major Championship. But there are still a smattering of stars in attendance in Minnesota this week. Defending champion Tony Finau will be looking to put a disappointing Open showing behind him this week. Cameron Young floundered on Sunday but still managed an impressive top 10 finish at Hoylake. Elsewhere, the likes of Hideki Matsuyama and Emiliano Grillo will be in attendance after positive showings at Royal Liverpool. And what on earth has happened to Justin Thomas? He was cut after a dismal 11-over-par showing at the Open and his Ryder Cup place looks in real jeopardy at present. It’s as if Ricky Fowler has used some voodoo magic to switch his form with that of his close friend. This could be a chance for JT to prove a point to Zach Johnson ahead of the iconic biennial competition.

Past Winners

2022: Tony Finau (-17)
2021: Cameron Champ (-15)
2020: Michael Thompson (-19)
2019: Matthew Wolff (-21)

Betting Favourites (To Win)

Tony Finau (12/1), Cameron Young (14/1), Hideki Matsuyama (18/1), Sungjae Im (18/1), Justin Thomas (20/1)

Value Bets

Cameron Davis- To Win (35/1)

This has been a pretty bizarre year for Aussie Camron Davies. He has been cut ten times on the US PGA Tour in 2023. However, he has picked up a few brilliant finishes in elite events. He finished T6 at the Players and T4 at the US PGA Championship. Davis seemed to put his poor recent form behind him with a creditable T17 finish at the Rocket Mortgage Classic (an event that correlates nicely with this one). I wouldn’t put too much stock in his missed cut at Renaissance. It was a links layout and is a far cry from this week’s test. Davis has finishes of T12, T28 and T16 over the last three years at TPC Twin Cities. He is very familiar with this track now and could be one to watch.

Lucas Glover- To Win (90/1)

This one looks like an absolute steal this week. Former US Open champion Lucas Glover is actually one of the in-form players in this field, coming into this week with three consecutive top six finishes. He finished in a tie for 4th at the Rocket Mortgage Classic. He then had a T6 at the John Deere Classic before a solo 5th at last week’s Barracuda Championship. He has always been a brilliant ball-striker but recently switched to a broomstick-style putter. That seems to be paying dividends and he could be a real dark horse this week.

The Man to Beat- Sungjae Im- To Win (18/1)

Sungjae Im has some decent course history and good trending form coming into this week’s event. He has finished 2nd and 15th in his two previous visits to TPC Twin Cities. That isn’t much of a surprise given his renowned abilities with the irons. The three-time PGA Tour winner hasn’t finished inside the top 10 since a T8 finish at the Wells Fargo in May. But he is fresh off a respectable T20 finish at Hoylake and he will find this test far more to his liking. He has the accuracy to avoid the water hazards and give himself plenty of birdie opportunities.

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