Damian Kayat previews the 2023 BMW Championship.
2022/2023 US PGA Tour
BMW Championship
The North Course, Olympia Fields Country Club, Olympia Fields, Illinois
17th-20th August
So, the Cinderella story continues. Lucas Glover’s current Indian summer makes for one of the more heartwarming narratives on this year’s tour. The 2009 US Open champion looks a rejuvenated man after overcoming some serious existential putting demons. His switch to a broomstick putter has given him a new lease on life. And that club came up clutch again as he held off a spirited Patrick Cantlay at last week’s FedEx St Jude Championship.
Who would have thought that the 43-year-old would make it back-to-back wins in this ultra-competitive climate? He has incredibly shot in the 60’s in 21 of his 22 rounds. It opens up an entire plethora of questions. Is he a realistic FedEx Cup champion? Does he stand a chance of Ryder Cup selection? One would have to think that his clutch putting could make him an ideal candidate for the pressure-cooker atmosphere of the biennial tournament.
This week’s BMW Championship will be the 2nd and penultimate leg of the US PGA Tour’s FedEx Cup Playoffs. It was actually introduced in 2007 as the 3rd leg of the original FedEx Cup Playoff series (replacing the old Western Open). The format of the series changed in 2019, with the PGA Tour wisely shortening the Playoffs to three events. And there have been further changes this season. Now only the top 50 have earned the right to tee it up this week and I fully agree with the PGA Tour’s decision. You don’t really want the 69th or 70th ranked player fluking a win this week and putting himself in the position to win a FedEx Cup.
The top 50 battling it out for East Lake just feels right. This is a nomadic event and this year’s edition returns to the North Course – host of the 2020 renewal. The 2020 edition ended with arguably the most dramatic finish in recent PGA Tour history, with Jon Rahm snaking that nearly 70-foot putt to snatch victory from DJ’s grasp.
The North Course is far and away the most difficult of the recent BMW host venues. Jim Furyk won the US Open in 8-under-par in 2003 (his sole major triumph). And Rahm and DJ each finished on 4-under-par when they met in the 2020 playoff. When it hosted this event back in 2020, the North Course was the longest par 70 used on the PGA Tour in a non-major since 2019.
This course requires brilliant all-round driving (little wonder DJ and Rahm were in the mix). But Furyk’s victory tells you that distance isn’t everything. It’s crucial that you drive accurately and avoid the dense bluegrass rough. Look for players with the ideal combination of distance and accuracy off the tee. Also look for players who are able to negotiate these severely contoured Bentgrass/Poa Annua greens.
Could Lucas Glover possibly make it three wins in a row this week? One thing is for sure- he will need to drive more accurately than he did on Sunday. Jon Rahm finished well down the field last week but he understands the vagaries of this venue. It has all the trappings of a major championship and Rahm loves to turn up in those. Scottie Scheffler has been ultra-consistent of late while McIlroy’s T3 at TPC Southwind was the Northern Irishman’s 8th consecutive top 10 finish.
I sometimes think we underate McIlroy’s achievements. Sure, he hasn’t closed out in majors with Tiger-esque decisiveness. But this guy is very seldom absent from leaderboards and you have to applaud that consistency. Patrick Cantlay will be looking to make history with a threepeat this week. The sloth of the US PGA Tour drove the ball superbly at TPC Southwind and he will truly believe he has a shot at making it three in a row. Elsewhere, the likes of Viktor Hovland and Jordan Spieth have to be respected on current form.
Past Winners
2022: Patrick Cantlay (-14)
2021: Patrick Cantlay (-27) *playoff
2020: Jon Rahm (-4) *playoff
2019: Justin Thomas (-25)
2018: Keegan Bradley (-20) *playoff
2017: Marc Leishman (-23)
Betting Favourites (To Win)
Scottie Scheffler (7/1), Jon Rahm (8/1), Rory McIlroy (8/1), Patrick Cantlay (10/1), Viktor Hovland (16/1)
Value Bets
Russell Henley- To Win (33/1), To Place (7/1)
Russell Henley is simply one of the most in-form players in the entire field. He finished in a tie for 6th last week and he really should have won the Wyndham Championship a fortnight ago (he would have to settle for a T2 finish). The reason I like him this week is simple: driving accuracy. He is basically my Jim Furyk pick this week. He leads the entire PGA Tour in driving accuracy, hitting almost 2% more fairways than anyone else. That combination of form and accuracy makes him an essential pick this week.
Corey Conners- To Win (50/1), To Place (11/1)
It wasn’t that long ago that Corey Conners was bang in contention at Oak Hill Country Club. The accurate Canadian has been subdued of late but a T6 finish last week gives me hope that he could be a nice dark horse pick this week. He won the Valero Texas Open earlier this year and he picked up another recent top ten finish at TPC River Highlands. He just needs his putter to cooperate. He is a deadly accurate driver who should avoid most of the real trouble out there.
The Man to Beat- Max Homa- To Win (22/1), To Place (48/10)
I just love Max Homa this week. He came out the gates hot at the beginning of the year and somewhat slowed as the tour headed deeper into major season. But the 32-year-old California native has started to show his mettle once again, picking up a T10 at Hoylake and a highly creditable T6 at TPC Southwind. He was 5th in SG: Off-the-Tee last week (which is obviously a huge stat to consider here). He is also 9th in tour for Strokes Gained: Putting. That should come in handy on these tricky, lightening fast greens.
