Damien Kayat previews the 2022 Arnold Palmer Invitational taking place at the Bay Hill Club & Lodge in Orlando, Florida.
2022 US PGA Tour
Arnold Palmer Invitational
Bay Hill Club & Lodge, Orlando, Florida
3rd-6th March
Berger blows it
My pick to win last week- Daniel Berger- amazingly blew a five-shot lead on Sunday despite looking completely unruffled throughout the week. At least he still managed to place on a chaotic Sunday that saw Sepp Straka claim his maiden US PGA Tour title.
The tour’s next stop on the Florida swing is clearly a sentimental favourite. Known to many simply as the King, Arnold Palmer arguably did more to popularize the spread of golf than any player in the history of the game.
He won this event back in 1971 when it was still known as the Florida Citrus Open. He took over hosting duties in 1979 and moved the event to its now iconic home: Bay Hill Country Club.
It has been called the Bay Hill Invitational in the past but now it is firmly known as the Arnold Palmer Invitational. Tiger Woods has won this event a record eight times but he will obviously miss out this week due to his protracted convalescence.
World Number One Jon Rahm will be looking for a strong showing as Collin Morikawa continues to breathe down his neck.
Approach play the key at Bay Hill
This course was designed in 1960 by Dick Wilson and Joe Lee. But Palmer bought the course in 1976, starting a love affair that would last to the end of his life.
He tinkered with it constantly (this event has been played as both a par 70 and par 72 during the years). This is a proper test of golf this week. Driving distance and accuracy haven’t been amazing indicators of success around Bay Hill.
But there does seem to be a trend towards power over the past five years or so (Rory and Bryson both topped the Driving Distance charts when they won in 2018 and 2021 respectively).
But the key to success here is on approach. The sprawling TifEagle Bermuda greens are notoriously hard to negotiate. They are lightning-fast and somewhat reminiscent of Augusta.
Players will need to hit solid iron shots to find success here. Four of the last five winners have ranked inside the top 10 in GIR.
Exciting field, even without top US stars
I know that many of the elite US players have traditionally eschewed this event ahead of the Players. From the upper echelon of US players, only Scottie Scheffler and defending champion Bryson Dechambeau will tee it up this week.
I find that slightly disappointing given the emotional weight of the week. Luckily, there is a stellar international field that truly elevates proceedings. World Number One Jon Rahm will be joined by recent Arnold Palmer champs Tyrell Hatton and Rory McIlroy.
Hideki Matsuyama and Viktor Hovland are amongst the world’s in-form players and both pose a real threat this week. Jason Day and Mark Leishman have also tasted success around Bay Hill.
This should be an exhilarating event that leads perfectly into next week’s Players at TPC Sawgrass.
Past Winners
2021: Bryson DeChambeau (-11)
2020: Tyrell Hatton (-4)
2019: Francisco Molinari (-12)
2018: Rory McIlroy (-18)
2017: Jason Day (-17)
To Win Outright:
Jon Rahm 8/1 | Rory McIlroy 14/1 | Viktor Hovland 18/1 | Scottie Scheffler 18/1 | Hideki Matsuyama 22/1
Value Bets
Matthew Fitzpatrick To Win 30/1 | To Place 13/2
This is going to be a popular bet this week. Fitzpatrick is a tee-to-green beast who suits Bay Hill perfectly. He currently sits 2nd on tour for shots gained approach. He also sits 5th in proximity on shots over 200 yards. That gives you an indication of his suitability for this layout. He enters this event in great form, finishing 12th or better in his last four starts. More importantly, he has three consecutive top 10 finishes in this event. This includes a 2nd place finish in 2019.
Patrick Reed- To Win 110/1 | To Place 24/1
I know this one seems a stretch. But hear me out. I think it’s fair to say that Patrick Reed hasn’t been quite the same player since contracting bilateral pneumonia late last year (despite a T3 at the Hero World Challenge). I think he was massively disappointed to miss out on a Captain’s Pick at the Ryder Cup. And his 2022 has started pretty poorly. His best finish this year has been a T15. He has also missed his last two cuts. But it’s approaching Augusta time and Reed plays well at this time of the year. He is a world-class player who thrives on classic golf courses. He has won at Augusta, Torrey Pines and Bethpage Black. 110/1 just seems ludicrous for this nine-time PGA Tour winner.
The Man to Beat- Viktor Hovland- To Win 18/1 | To Place 39/10
Hovland certainly looks like brilliant value at 18/1. The 24-year-old Norwegian has won three times since November. He won at Mayakoba, the Hero World Challenge and the Dubai Desert Classic. During that span, he has also tied for 4th at both the Abu Dhabi HSBC Championship and the Genesis. Sure, he did miss the cut at the Phoneix Open a few weeks back. But he bounced back from that setback superbly at Riviera. He has finished at least 14-under-par in four of his six starts this season. And he also currently sits 8th in GIR this season. What’s not to like about Hovland this week?
