PREVIEW: 2023 PGA Tour – RSM Classic

2023 US PGA Tour
RSM Classic
Sea Island Resort (Seaside), Sea Island, Georgia
16th-19th November

I don’t think there was a dry eye in the house at the climax of last week’s Butterfield Bermuda Championship, with Camilo Villegas picking up his first title in nine years and his first since the untimely death of his daughter.

It completed back-to-back bittersweet PGA Tour victories, with Erik Van Rooyen previously dedicating his World Wide Technology Championship win to the cancer struggle of best friend Jon Trasamer. These compelling emotional narratives have really added some gravitas to this newly revamped FedEx Cup Fall Series.

RSM Classic

This week’s RSM Classic represents last-chance saloon for those players hovering around the top 125 mark. It is also is the last chance for players to worm their way into that ‘Next Ten’ position, thereby guaranteeing entry into some signature events next season.

With the DP World Tour hosting their season-ending DP World Tour Championships this weekend, this is one of the rare weeks where the US PGA Tour will be playing second-fiddle to its European counterpart.

Having said that, the added jeopardy of the entire FedEx Cup Fall rankings does spice things up a bit. And it is going to drastically alter the entire fabric of this event.

Formerly known as the McGladrey Classic, the RSM Classic developed a reputation over the years for being one of the most laidback events on the PGA Tour. Many tour pros actually own property in this gorgeous Georgia enclave and they essentially used this event as a post-season hangout session.

That entire vibe has been upended with player’s careers on the line this week. This event used to be staged exclusively at the Seaside Course. That was until eight years ago, when Plantation Island was introduced to add a bit of variety into proceedings.

Sea Island Resort

The players will play the Plantation Course and Seaside Course in rotation over the first two days. They will switch to the Seaside Course for the entire weekend.

The Plantation Course was designed by Walter Travis and opened in 1926 (though it was heavily reworked by Rees Jones in 1998). It was once again revamped by Love Golf Design in 2019. It’s an interesting blend of parkland and coastal links, with the tight fairways proving treacherous in windy conditions.

By contrast, the Seaside Course is very exposed to the elements, playing much more like a traditional links. Designed by Harry Colt and Charles Alison, the host course plays firm and fast in the tradition of the Scottish links.

Both courses feature Bermuda putting surfaces which always tend to reward familiarity. This is a week where precise approach play is far more important than bombastic length. Curiously, six of the thirteen editions of this event have ended in a playoff.

The Contenders

Ludvig Aberg has enjoyed a wonderfully consistent start to his career but I still think he’s being somewhat overhyped in some of these betting markets. How can he be trading at 12/1 with four-time PGA Tour winner Russell Henley at 22/1?

Open champion Brian Harman is the type of surgical operator who should thrive in these conditions. Will the Bubble Boys be at it again this week? Villegas jumped from 146th to 75th in the FedEx Cup standings last week, continuing a really strong trend of excellent performances by at-threat players during this fall series.

Past Winners

2022: Adam Svensson (-19)
2021: Talor Gooch (-22)
2020: Robert Streb (-19) *playoff
2019: Tyler Duncan (-19) *playoff
2018: Charles Howell III (-19) *playoff
2017: Austin Cook (-21)

To Win Outright:

Ludvig Aberg 12/1 | Cameron Young 16/1 | Brian Harman 16/1 | Russell Henley 22/1 | Justin Suh 25/1

Value Bets

J.J. Spaun- To Win 40/1

I’m really liking J.J. Spaun’s combination of course history and recent form. He has made six cuts out of seven at Sea Island (including a runner-up finish back in 2017). He also finished T16 in the last two editions: he clearly knows his way around these tracks. He hasn’t missed a cut since June and has finished T38 or better in seven of His last nine starts. This included a T6 finish at the recent ZOZO Championship. His putting has been his Achilles Heel of late but he has actually gained strokes with the flat-stick in five of his seven appearances here.

Keith Mitchell- To Win 40/1

A St Simons resident, Keith Mitchell is exactly the sort of player who could shine this week. Winless since 2019, Mitchell has lost his way somewhat over the last year or so. But there have been little signs of encouragement of late. Since missing the cut at the Sanderson Farms, Mitchell finished T21 at the ZOZO Championship and T38 at the World Wide Technology Championship. But he ended his Mexico jaunt in fine style, carding a bogey-free eight-under-par round on Sunday. He also has decent course credentials, finishing T14 here in 2019 and T12 in 2021. Mitchell- at his best- is a brilliant approach player and familiar surrounds may just bring out the best out of him.

The Man to Beat- Eric Cole- To Win 33/1

This selection is based purely on sensational recent form. Eric Cole has been on a heater over the last month or so, finishing 2nd, 3rd and 4th in three of his last four US PGA Tour starts. Still yet to win his maiden title, Cole ranks 4th or better in this field in Strokes Gained: Approach, Bogey Avoidance and Birdie or Better Rate. He finished in a tie for 39th on debut last year but he is obviously a completely different caliber of player this time around.