The PGA Tour heads to the penultimate FedEx Cup playoff event with the BMW Championship at the Castle Pines Golf Club in Colorado. Damien Kayat previews.
2024 US PGA Tour
BMW Championship
Castle Pines Golf Club
22 – 25 August
Hideki Matsuyama survived a late collapse to win last week’s FedEx St. Jude Championship, claiming his second win of the season while catapulting himself to third in the overall FedEx Cup rankings.
But it almost ended in tears. The stoic Japanese star was absolutely cruising to victory at one point, sauntering off the 11th green with a five-stroke lead.
He was then approached by a rules official on the 12th and was ultimately informed that he wouldn’t be penalised for stepping on a pitch mark way back on the 7th. The ordeal certainly affected him and he somehow managed to lose his lead with two brutal par-4’s to go.
But he regained his composure in pretty amazing fashion, birdieing those two behemoths to win his 10th PGA Tour title. It was all the more amazing as he got robbed of all his equipment on the way back from the Olympics.
He has putted abysmally all season but finished last week ranked 1st for Putting Average. The tour now moves swiftly on to the second leg of the FedEx Cup Playoffs: the BMW Championship.
BMW Championship
This week’s BMW Championship will be the 2nd and penultimate leg of the US PGA Tour’s FedEx Cup Playoffs. It was originally introduced in 2007 as the third leg of the original FedEx Cup Playoff series (replacing the old Western Open).
The format of the series changed in 2019, with the PGA Tour wisely shortening the Playoffs to three events (it did feel like a bit of a slog after an exhausting regular season).
The PGA Tour made further changes last season, with only the top 50 earning the right to tee it up at this penultimate event. And I personally think that was an inspired decision. You don’t really want the 69th-ranked player fluking a win and putting himself in the position to win a FedEx Cup.
The top 50 battling it out for a chance at reaching East Lake just feels right. This is a nomadic event and we find ourselves in Colorado this year, as Castle Pines Golf Club becomes the 7th course to host this event in the last eight seasons.
Castle Pines Golf Club
Long-time fans of the PGA Tour may recognize this week’s test. Castle Pines Golf Club played host to the now-defunct International between 1986 and 2006.
It was a unique event that utilised the Modified Stableford scoring system (which does make it hard to draw too many parallels). This Jack Nicklaus design opened in 1981 and looks like an absolute beast at 8,130 yards (the longest ever recorded on the PGA Tour).
But this course is situated snugly in the foothills of the Rocky Mountains and is almost 2000 metres above sea level.
The altitude means this course won’t play anywhere near that yardage. Still, both 9’s measure over 4,000 yards and I still think length will probably trump accuracy from the tee.
The course features very large bentgrass greens and putting turned out to be a great indicator of success at the now-defunct International.
The Contenders
Scottie Scheffler and Xander Schauffele have dominated the PGA Tour season and were both right in contention at TPC Southwind. I wouldn’t be surprised to see them in the mix again this week.
Rory McIlroy had one of his worst weeks on tour at TPC Southwind, finishing third to last at nine-over-par. The Northern Irishman has lost his way completely after that capitulation at Pinehurst No.2 and I can’t see him being very competitive this week.
Matsuyama putted brilliantly last week and that should prove to be a crucial stat on these massive bentgrass green complexes.
Reigning FedEx Cup champion Viktor Hovland came out of nowhere to finish runner-up last week and he will be hoping to use that as a springboard for an unforeseen FedEx Cup title defence.
Elsewhere, the likes of Collin Morikawa and Robert Macintyre will hope to continue their consistent recent form.
Past Winners
2023: Viktor Hovland (-17)
2022: Patrick Cantlay (-14)
2021: Patrick Cantlay (-27) *playoff
2020: Jon Rahm (-4) *playoff
2019: Justin Thomas (-25)
To Win Outright:
Scottie Scheffler 7/2 | Xander Schauffele 6/1 | Rory McIlroy 11/1 | Collin Morikawa 14/1 | Viktor Hovland 16/1
Value Bet
Tony Finau – To Win 30/1 | To Place 13/2
Tony Finau has been extremely consistent of late and I can see him being very competitive this week. He has been striking the ball exceptionally these last three months, ranking second in Strokes Gained: Approach and 7th in Strokes Gained: Ball-Striking.
His putting has also shown signs of improvement and he currently owns seven top-ten finishes in his last eight events. The Utah native will be familiar with the surrounds and he looks like excellent value at 30/1.
The Man to Beat – Patrick Cantlay – To Win 20/1 | To Place 44/10
I know it isn’t the coolest look to back the same guy to win in consecutive weeks. But two-time BMW Championship winner Patrick Cantlay makes a lot of sense and represents decent value this week.
He shook off some rust last week, finishing T9 in his first tournament since the Open Championship. Winner of two of the last BMW Championships, Cantlay actually ranks first in the field over his past 30 rounds in Strokes Gained: Total in high elevation (that’s a niche stat).
He is also a master on Nicklaus courses. He has finished inside the top 25 in seven of his last ten events and it’s surely just a matter of time until he wins again.
