The PGA Tour heads to the first of three FedEx Cup Playoffs with the opening FedEx St Jude Championship at the TPC Southwind in Memphis. Damien Kayat previews.
2024 US PGA Tour
FedEx St Jude Championship
TPC Southwind
15 – 18 August
Aaron Rai underlined his recent PGA Tour consistency with a brilliant victory at last week’s Wyndham Championship, capitalising on a dramatic Max Greyserman capitulation to secure his maiden title.
Greyserman looked like he was coasting to victory after holing out for eagle on the par-four 13th. But he went from the sublime to the ridiculous, quadruple bogeying the 14th in what was probably the most heartbreaking choke since Rory at Pinehurst No.2.
In any event, the tour now moves swiftly on to the first leg of the FedEx Cup Playoffs: the FedEx St Jude Championship.
FedEx St Jude Championship
Originally known as the Memphis Open, the status of this event was upped considerably when it was converted to a WGC event in 2018. The WGC tag is now obsolete but this remains a vital part of the PGA Tour roster, replacing the Northern Trust as the opening leg of the FedEx Cup playoffs in 2022.
Last year saw further streamlining of the event, with the number of qualifiers reduced from 125 to 70. This number will get whittled down to 50 for next week’s BMW Championship.
That number will then get narrowed down to the traditional 30 men at East Lake. Victory in this week’s event virtually guarantees a strong position in the season-ending Tour Championship.
TPC Southwind
Designed by Ron Pritchard- in consultation with Fuzzy Zoeller and Hubert Green- TPC Southwind was opened in 1988 and is a true ball-strikers paradise.
Always considered an exacting test, TPC Southwind was made even more difficult after 2024 renovations. 125 trees and 15 bunkers were added while the par-5 5th was converted to a par 4 (reducing the par to 70). 200 yards were added to the length and the Zoyisa fairways were significantly narrowed.
This is a course that has welcomed a wide variety of winners. The smaller-than-average Bermuda greens put a real emphasis on strong iron play.
Over the last 14 years, only Ben Crane and Lucas Glover (last year’s champion) have ranked outside the top 10 for GIR. Also, keep an eye out for strong scrambling stats. The greens require a short game that can bail you out when you miss your target.
Last season, Glover mitigated his average approach play by topping the scrambling charts. There are some gigantic par 4’s out there and I would also take a gander at par 4 scoring stats.
The Contenders
Scottie Scheffler will be making his first appearance since securing Olympic Gold at Le Golf National. The American enjoys a healthy FedEx Cup points lead after what has been one of the most dominant seasons in the history of the sport (majors notwithstanding).
Speaking of majors, two-time major champion Xander Schauffele is undeniably the second-best player in the world at present. He knows that a really strong post-season could potentially see him pip Scheffler to Player of the Year honours.
Rory McIlroy finished just four shots back of Scheffler in Paris and he will look to build on that as we approach the closing stages of the season.
Collin Morikawa has enjoyed a remarkably consistent 2024 campaign while the likes of Aberg and Theegala will look to extend their brilliant seasons with victory at TPC Southwind.
Past Winners
2023: Lucas Glover (-15) *playoff
2022: Will Zalatoris (-15) *playoff
2021: Abraham Ancer (-16) *playoff
2020: Justin Thomas (-13)
2019: Brooks Koepka (-16)
2018: Dustin Johnson (-19)
To Win Outright:
Scottie Scheffler (15/4), Xander Schauffele (8/1), Rory McIlroy (17/2), Collin Morikawa (14/1), Ludvig Aberg (18/1)
Value Bets
Sahith Theegala – To Win 45/1 | To Place 19/2
Theegala has been in excellent form of late, finishing T6 at the 3M Open and T4 at the Scottish Open (he did miss the cut at Royal Troon). He is just a ball-striking phenom who should thrive on this layout.
He currently sits 9th in Strokes Gained: Total and 17th in Strokes Gained: Off the Tee. TPC Southwind – with its water and need for strong course management- actually reminds me of TPC Sawgrass. Theegala finished in a tie for 9th at this year’s Players and I think he is primed for another strong performance.
Billy Horschel – To Win 70/1 | To Place 15/1
This looks like a no-brainer at 70/1. Former FedEx Cup champ Billy Horschel has always been a streaky player and it seems as if he is suddenly surging upwards. He held the 54-hole lead at the Open and he is fresh off a T7 finish at the Wyndham Championship.
He has struggled with irons all season but has suddenly produced his best two approach performances of the year (which should come in handy on a test that requires strong mid-iron play). He has a really solid record at TPC Southwind, with seven top-25 finishes in 12 starts (five of which were top-10s).
The Man to Beat – Patrick Cantlay – To Win 25/1 | To Place 11/2
This hasn’t been one of Cantlay’s greatest seasons. Still, he has made 14 out of 15 cuts and has still managed to pick up four top-10 finishes. Crucially, two of those top 10’s came in his last three starts. He was 3rd at the US Open before following that up with a 5th place finish at the Travelers.
He also broke into the top 25 at Royal Troon with little to no preparation. His ball-striking has been a little unreliable this season but he does rank 26th on tour for approach play in his last 20 rounds. He finished runner-up here last season and I can easily see him contending this week.
