PREVIEW: 2024 PGA Tour – Mexico Open

2024 US PGA Tour
Mexico Open
The Norman Signature Course, Vidanta Vallarta
22 – 25 February

What a round by Hideki Matsuyama! The former Masters champ flirted with the Rivera course record before carding a bogey-free 62, helping him leapfrog the likes of Patrick Cantlay and Will Zalatoris to pick up his first title since 2022. The Japanese megastar had slipped to 55 in the world rankings and the victory will come as a huge boot for his 2024 aspirations.

The Mexico Open

The Tour moves from its third Signature Event to one of the newer events on the PGA Tour roster: the Mexico Open. The event dates all the way back to 1944 and is the country’s national golf championship. It bounced around circuits such as the Tour de las Americas and the Korn Ferry Tour for years.

But it was only in 2022 that it was elevated to full PGA Tour status (with LIV runaway Jon Rahm winning the inaugural staging of the event). The event returns to last year’s venue: the Norman Signature Course at Vidanta Vallarta. Yes, it’s that Norman.

The Norman Signature Course

Greg Norman is like the Taylor Swift of golf: you can’t escape him. Maybe that was a bit unkind to poor Taylor. In any event, the Great White Shark definitely knows what he’s doing when it comes to designing golf courses.

Situated near the Pacific Ocean and Banderas Bay, the Norman Signature Course at Vidanta Vallarta is a real looker. It snakes its way along the banks of the Ameca River, providing dramatic vistas of the Sierra Madres on every hole.

The course was opened in 2015 and is laid to Pasaplaum (which is pretty standard in this neck of the woods). It is a pretty meaty par 71 that measures just a smidge under 7,500 yards. The bombers are given even further encouragement by the generous fairways (there is also minimal rough in play this year).

You should back big hitters with Paspalum experience this week (think El Camaleon). Also, look for guys who can go really low.

The Contenders

This is one of the least illustrious fields you will encounter on the PGA Tour all season. In fact, only five of the top 60 players in the world will be teeing it up this week.

Tony Finau is heavily favoured to defend his title and I can understand that. DP World Tour Championship winner Nicolai Hojgaard finished runner-up at Torrey Pines and this week represents a great opportunity for him to break his PGA Tour duck. I’m really hoping that New Zealander Ryan Fox can make the most of his US PGA Tour card this year. This course should suit his big-hitting style.

There is actually a very strong European contingent this week, with both Thomas Detry and Thorbjorn Olesen bringing some excellent form to the table. And I want to give a brief shout-out to Canadian Mackenzie Hughes. At last week’s Genesis Open, Hughes gave a wonderfully succinct condemnation of the entire mercenary attitude prevalent in golf today. I salute him for his unfiltered honesty on the matter.

Past Winners

2023: Tony Finau (-24)
2022: Jon Rahm (-17)

To Win Outright:

Tony Finau 7/1 | Nicolai Hojgaaard 16/1 | Emiliano Grillo 20/1 | Stephan Jaeger 22/1 | Thorbjorn Olesen 25/1

Value Bets

Stephan Jaegar- To Win 22/1 | To Place 48/10

German Stephan Jaegar is one to watch this week. Though yet to win on tour, Jaegar is one of the most prolific birdie machines out there, ranking 5th in this field for Birdie or Better percentage. Making plenty of birdies will obviously be of paramount importance this week. He also sits 13th in Strokes Gained: Ball Striking and 27th in Driving Distance in the field. That combination of stats makes him a very appealing option this week. He finished T3 at the endurance test that is Torrey Pines and he has finished 15th and 18th on this course. Everything just seems to be pointing towards a Jaegar title charge this week (especially given this weak field).

Sami Valimaki- To Win 100/1 | To Place 24/1

I’m hoping that the Pavon effect can guide Sami Valimaki to a strong showing this week. The Finn secured his PGA playing rights by winning the Qatar Masters towards the end of last season. The two-time DP World Tour winner missed his first two cuts on the tour but he seems to have steadied the ship, finishing T43 at Torrey Pines and T41 at TPC Scottsdale. He was inside the top 10 at the halfway point at Torrey Pines and I think he could thrive in this field. Valimaki also won on a coastal Norman design at the Oman Open (one which also featured Paspalum greens). In fact, his win at the Qatar Masters also came on Paspalum greens.

The Man to Beat- Nicolai Hojgaard- To Win (16/1) | To Place 7/2

I think this cold be the week for Dane Nicolai Hojgaard to pick up his maiden US PGA Tour title. His victory at the DP World Tour Championship- on the sprawling Earth Course- tells you everything you need to know about his game. He drives the ball beautifully and he should be looking at plenty of birdies this week. He finished runner-up at the imposing Torry Pines and he is also in the top ten in the field for approach shots from 175+ yards. I really think he represents much better value than Finau this week.