PREVIEW: 2024 PGA Tour – Phoenix Open

2024 US PGA Tour
Phoenix Open
TPC Scottsdale, Scottsdale, Arizona
8-11 February

Last week’s rain-reduced AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am felt like a cosmic sign of impending doom. Play was abandoned on Sunday, allowing Wyndham Clark to emerge victorious ahead of European hopefuls Aberg and Pavon.

But the lack of golf on Sunday meant LIV pretty much monopolized Sunday viewing, with fans granted a thrilling play-off between Niemann and Garcia. It just feels like another slap in the face of the traditional golfing establishment.

The PGA Tour moves swiftly from its Californian jaunt to the Arizonan desert for the most rambunctious event in world golf: the Phoenix Open. 

The Phoenix Open

Originally staged as the Arizona Open some 92 years ago, I wonder what the founders of this event would make of the ghastly frat-boy circus it has become. The most well-attended event on the PGA Tour has become something of a lightning rod for the ‘YouTube-bro’ golfing culture that has become the norm. Let’s go investigate TPC Scottsdale before I make any more old fuddy-duddy comments.

TPC Scottsdale

The Stadium Course was custom-made to host this event. This is a pretty typical desert-style layout that leans into its linksy influences. This isn’t a course designed purely for the bombers (though stats suggest that distance edges accuracy from the tee this week).

The undulating Bermuda fairways and fast Bermuda greens reward pure ball striking (finding Greens in Regulation is paramount this week). Players will need to be cognizant of their distances this week as it is played at elevation.

But the real star attraction of the Stadium Course is its barnstorming finish. It starts pleasantly enough with the reachable par 5 15th. Then you have the infamous par three 16th, featuring one of the most unique atmospheres in sport. Known as the ‘Coliseum’, it is the only fully enclosed hole on the PGA Tour and this is where the boorish behaviour is actively encouraged.

The 17th is a drivable par four. So, there is plenty of room for momentum shifts in the closing stages of this course.

The Contenders

Given the loutish behaviour prevalent around TPC Scottsdale, it feels pretty ironic that Scottie Scheffler- the most unassuming presence in world golf- is the two-time defending champion here.

The languid American was in contention last week and he will feel confident of a rare threepeat. Justin Thomas seems to be finding his groove of late and he loves playing into the rowdy atmosphere of this event.

Max Homa and Jordan Spieth will attract plenty of crowd support while Matt Fitzpatrick is probably the most likely of the European candidates this week. Pebble champ Wyndham Clark will be looking to continue his fine form this week while the likes of Min Woo Lee and Sungjae Im are sure to provide plenty of entertainment.

I was kind of surprised that the PGA Tour opted not to make this one of the new signature events. Perhaps they feel the carnival atmosphere is a little bit too similar to a certain Saudi-backed league. Food for thought.

Past Winners

2023: Scottie Scheffler (-19)
2022: Scottie Scheffler (-16) *playoff
2021: Brooks Koepka (-19)
2020: Webb Simpson (-17) *playoff
2019: Rickie Fowler (-17)

To Win Outright:

Scottie Scheffler 9/2 | Justin Thomas | 10/1 Max Homa 16/1 | Jordan Spieth 18/1 | Sam Burns 18/1

Value Bets

Wyndham Clark- To Win 30/1 | To Place 6/1

I really think there’s real value in backing Pebble winner Wyndham Clark. The 2023 US Open champion started this season with mediocre finishes of T29 and T39. But everything changed in the third round of the Pebble Beach Pro-Am, where the classy Clark shot a course-record 60 to surge atop the leaderboard. He is absolutely surgical from the fairways and that gives him a great chance of doubling up this week. Also, Clark finished in a tie for 10th in this event last season. He is a confidence player who could once again go super low this week.

Corey Conners- To Win 60/1 | To Place 11/1

Canadian Corey Conners is a premier ball striker who hasn’t missed the cut in four trips to TPC Scottsdale. He actually hasn’t missed a cut on Tour since last June. He ranks ninth in the field for Strokes Gained: Ball Striking in his last 24 rounds. There has been some rain about in Arizona and that could make the putting surfaces somewhat forgivable. This will give Conners- who can struggle with the flat-stick- added impetus.

The Man to Beat- J.T. Poston- To Win 28/1 | To Place 7/1

I’m opting to swerve some of the bigger names atop the market for one of the most underrated players in world golf: J.T. Poston. The 12th ranked golfer in the world is a ball-striking phenom who has been in absolutely incredible form for some time now. He has 11 top 25 finishes in his last 13 starts. He has gained on approach in eight of his last ten events and he also happens to be a top ten putter. I just think his game is perfectly tailored for TPC Scottsdale.