PREVIEW: 2024 PGA Tour – RBC Canadian Open

2024 US PGA Tour
RBC Canadian Open
Hamilton Golf and Country Club
30 May – 3 June 2024

Davis Riley picked up his maiden US PGA Tour victory in what turned out to be a very sobering week at Colonial. Even Scottie Scheffler’s recent arrest was pushed into the background after news of Grayson Murray’s tragic suicide filtered through the CBS coverage.

Murray had his well-documented battles with depression and alcoholism but seemed to have pulled himself together, claiming the biggest title of his career at this year’s Sony Open. This is one of those unifying incidents that puts the pettiness of golf’s recent financial squabbles into some perspective.

It also makes me think about the way Matthew Wolff was publicly vilified by LIV teammate Brooks Koepka. Wolff has spoken openly about mental health struggles and the type of offhand, dismissive comments made by Koepka point towards a broader ignorance towards these issues in the game of golf.

The RBC Canadian Open

In any event, this week the tour moves northwards for the 113th staging of the Canadian Open. In fact, this tournament dates back to 1904 and is the third-oldest national open in world golf. It was once a star-studded event- known as the unofficial fifth Major of the tour.

But the tournament started to lose its magic when it immediately followed the Open Championship. It almost felt like an afterthought and fields started to rapidly diminish in quality. In 2019, the event was moved forward in the schedule to the week preceding the US Open. This did improve the overall quality of recent fields.

This year the event directly precedes the Signature Event at Memorial and then leads into the US Open. This has definitely affected the depth of this year’s roster (a few notable heavy hitters aside). It is a nomadic event and this year it returns to the site of the 2019 renewal: Hamilton Golf and Country Club.

Hamilton Golf and Country Club

Hamilton Golf and Country Club was designed by the famed Harry Colt (probably most celebrated for his work at Wentworth). And this layout certainly has a Wentworth vibe to it. It is a tree-lined parkland course with rather small Poa Annua greens.

It isn’t quite as heavily tree-lined as Wentworth after an extensive tree removal program back in 2014. But it still feels much more like the type of course that you would traditionally find on the DP World Tour.

McIlroy won the 2019 event in 22-under-par but this year’s course has been tinkered with again, with Martin Ebert undertaking a massive renovation of every hole. It’s hard to gauge too much about course history given all the Canadian Opens hosted here have been years apart.

But this course measures a smidge under 7,000 yards and it has never been essential to hit the ball a mile (McIlroy excluded). Furyk won here in 2006 and accurate types can prosper here. Perhaps also look for players with form at courses such as Wentworth and Valderrama.

The Contenders

Rory McIlroy will be looking to make it a threepeat in this national open having won the title in 2019 and 2022. He has been back to something resembling his best of late and he will be looking for some strong mid-season form ahead of the year’s final two Major Championships.

Tommy Fleetwood and Shane Lowry lead a pretty strong European contingent while Sahith Theegala returns to action after flirting with Major glory at Valhalla.

There has been a bit of a boom for Canadian golfers in recent years and there is some really strong national representation this week. Defending champion Nick Watney joins a strong local field that includes the likes of Corey Conners and Mackenzie Hughes.

I predict a somewhat grim tone in the aftermath of last week’s tragedy and it will be interesting to see just how much that affects the event as a spectacle.

Past Winners

2023: Nick Taylor (-17) *playoff
2022: Rory McIlroy (-19)
2020-2021: cancelled due to pandemic
2019: Rory McIlroy (-22)
2018: Dustin Johnson (-23)

To Win Outright:

Rory McIlroy 15/4 | Tommy Fleetwood 18/1 | Shane Lowry 20/1 | Sahith Theegala 20/1 | Corey Conners 22/1

Value Bets

Maverick McNealy- To Win 35/1 | To Place 15/2

Maverick McNealy looks reinvigorated this season. He missed the latter portion of 2023 due to a left shoulder injury. He has finished sixth at TPC Scottsdale, 13th at Vidanta and 9th at TPC Sawgrass. He also finished fast to pick up a 17th at Colonial last week. He has runner-up finishes at similarly short tests at Pebble Beach and Silverado. He ranks inside the top 15 in the field from Tee to Green and I think he is a nice dark horse prospect this week.

Adam Hadwin- To Win 40/1 | To Place 17/2

Perhaps Adam Hadwin can make it two consecutive Canadian winners this year. Hadwin played well when this event was hosted here back in 2019, finishing sixth and gaining strokes in all the major categories. He is a great wedge player and there will be plenty of chances for him to flaunt that this week. He has multiple top-five finishes at Detroit Golf Club (which also features Bent/Poa greens). He finished 12th at Oakdale last year and he has shown decent flashes this campaign, picking up three top-10 finishes thus far.

The Man to Beat- Alex Noren- To Win 25/1 | To Place 11/2

I think I’m prepared to skip Rory at 15/4 this week (despite his obvious course form). Alex Noren has subtly been compiling one of the best seasons of his career, accumulating eight consecutive top-25 finishes. That included a third-place finish at the Byron Nelson and a highly creditable T12 at Valhalla. He has crucially gained shots on approach and around the greens in all eight of those starts. Noren is not a huge hitter and this course should suit his methodical approach. In his last 24 rounds, Noren is eighth on Good Drive Percentage and third in Bogey Avoidance.