The PGA Tour heads from Hawaii to California for the American Express set to take place at the Pete Dye Stadium Course, PGA West and La Quinta Country Club.
2024 US PGA Tour
American Express
Pete Dye Stadium Course (Stadium Course)
PGA West (Nicklaus Tournament Course)
La Quinta Country Club (All in California)
18th-21st January
This is the year of Prohibition on the PGA Tour. Chris Kirk overcame serious alcohol dependency to capture victory on last year’s US PGA Tour. And he won arguably the biggest title of his career at this year’s Sony Open.
Grayson Murray won his first title in six years last week, miraculously holding off Byeong An and Keegan Bradley in a dramatic three-way playoff. He attributed part of his success to his decision to stop drinking alcohol. I guess there’s a moral somewhere here but I’m going to choose to ignore it.
The American Express
This week the tour shifts from its Hawaii double-header to the first of three consecutive California-based events: the American Express.
The event has had its fair share of facelifts but it’s probably best remembered as the old Bob Hope Classic.
The Pro-Am began life in 1960 as a five-round event. But it underwent a major overhaul in 2012, as new sponsors Humana attempted to breathe some life into a pretty stale format. The old five-round format was wisely downsized into a more streamlined four-round format.
And the fields have been far more decorated since they made that decision. This is a Pro-Am event that takes place over three courses (which can make for slightly laboured viewing). Defending champion Jon Rahm will obviously not be in action after his defection to LIV.It was actually his non-commitment to playing in this event that really got the LIV rumour mill swirling late last year.
The Courses
Three courses will be played in rotation over the first three days. The host course, the PGA West Stadium Course, is generally considered the toughest test of the three. The Pete Dye-design will be played in rotation and again on Sunday (there will be a 54-hole cut).
The Nicklaus Tournament Course is a little bit easier. But La Quinta is really where you need to make some birdies. La Quinta was the easiest par 72 on the PGA Tour for four years running (2017-2020).
The Bermuda greens are fairly simple and will run at around 11 on the stimp all week. The rough is also very forgiving all week (no doubt due in part to the presence of the amateurs). You can expect really low scoring this week (it may come down to who can make enough putts on these Bermuda greens).
The Contenders
World No.1 Scottie Scheffler can be a frustrating watch. His tee-to-green game looked imperious at the Sentry and he held the lead at the halfway stage. But those flatstick demons came into play and his putting really deteriorated over the weekend. He will need to hole plenty of putts this week to contend.
Patrick Cantlay has three top 10’s in this event and he has to be respected at any price. Xander Schauffele doesn’t win enough for a man of his talent but he did shoot a 62 in his final round here last year. Elsewhere, the likes of Justin Thomas and Min Woo Lee should provide plenty of excitement for the galleries.
Past Winners
2023: Jon Rahm (-27)
2022: Hudson Swafford (-23)
2021: Si Woo Kim (-23)
2020: Andrew Landry (-26)
2019: Adam Long (-26)
To Win Outright:
Scottie Scheffler 6/1 | Patrick Cantlay 17/2 | Xander Schauffele 10/1 | Sungjae Im 18/1 | Justin Thomas 22/1
Value Bets
Taylor Montgomery- To Win 50/1 | To Place 11/1
Taylor Montgomery started off his rookie 2023 campaign in fine style, punctuated by a solo fifth in this very event. His results tapered off as he struggled with his irons in the latter part of the campaign. But he ended the season with a T8 finish at the RSM Classic and he finished in a tie for 13th last week. In fact, he finished second in SG: Approach around Waialae. He is a strong putter and his improved iron play should make him a force this week.
Adam Hadwin- To Win 60/1 | To Place 13/1
This is just a classic ‘horses for courses’ pick. Canadian Adam Hadwin has finished inside the top 20 here in five of his last seven starts. Amazingly, four of those finishes have been in the top six. Hadwin missed the cut at the Sony Open. But he was in the top 20 in the field for Strokes Gained: Approach in the first round. In 2019 he finished 59th at the Sony Open and went on to finish runner-up at this event. Hadwin hasn’t won on tour since 2017 but he has a connection with this event and he has the ability to go super low.
The Man to Beat- J.T. Poston- To Win 28/1 | To Place 6/1
J.T. Poston has been quietly accumulating some amazing results over the last six months or so. In fact, his solo 6th at last week’s Sony Open was his fifth top-ten finish in his last eight starts. That included a runner-up finish at the 3M Open and a T3 at the Shriners. Poston also has an extremely solid record in this event, picking up two top-ten finishes in five starts (T6 in 2023 and T7 in 2019). He is one of the best putters on tour and I can see him going low this week.
