The PGA Tour heads to the iconic Stadium Course at TPC Sawgrass for the 2024 edition of the Player’s Championship. Damien Kayat previews and shares all of his best bets and tips.
2024 US PGA Tour
The Players Championship
The Stadium Course, TPC Sawgrass
14th-17th March
I have always said that Scottie Scheffler would be borderline unbeatable if he could get his putter to cooperate. Last week he broke a year-long title drought to win the Arnold Palmer Invitational by five strokes (the most since Tiger won there back in 2012).
And he remarkably made 16 putts from within 10 feet on Sunday, ranking him inside the top five for overall putting for just the 3rd time in his PGA Tour career. The ‘Texas Wedge’ has really been the only thing that has held the ball-striking dynamo back from global domination these past few years.
And this uptick in putting couldn’t have come at a better time for the languid New Jersey native, as he looks to become the first man in history to defend the prestigious Players Championship this week.
The Players Championship
This is the third- and most prestigious- stop on the Florida Swing and I actually feel like it carries even more weight in this crazy age of LIV Golf. It was always known as the unofficial Fifth Major and I think it remains unsullied despite the machinations of LIV and the elevation of the other so-called ‘designated’ events.
This week will mark the 51st edition of the tour’s flagship event. They will, however, only crown the 50th champion this year: the 2020 event was abandoned after 18 holes due to the pandemic.
Originally known as the Tournament Players Championship, the Players began life in fittingly illustrious fashion, with the ‘Golden Bear’ Jack Nicklaus winning the first of his three titles in 1974 (he is still the only man to have won this event on three occasions).
In fact, only six players in the event’s history have won it on multiple occasions. And there are multiple ways to skin this particular cat, with bombers and plotters alike finding success on this classical test.
The likes of JT and McIlroy are joined by Webb Simpson and Tim Clark on the winner’s rollcall. This has always been one of the most difficult events to predict because it really tests every facet of a player’s game.
Having said all that, I think the Tour’s decision to switch the event back to March five years ago has proved advantageous to the bigger hitters. There is less roll on the fairways and the ball doesn’t penetrate the air as easily, giving the guys with considerable carry a distinct edge.
The Stadium Course at TPC Sawgrass
Constructed in 1980, this Pete-Dye masterpiece was purpose-built to host this event, taking on the ceremonial duties back in 1982. This classical Bermuda-grass layout has dog-legged holes that meander in both directions.
This obviously suits the players who can shape it both ways (it’s little wonder that Tiger Woods is a two-time champion here). It’s also critical to find these smaller-than-average TifEagle Bermuda greens. The ten winners between 2005 and 2014 averaged 7.5 in GIR.
If you don’t consistently find these greens then your scrambling game has to be on point. All this basically illustrates just how difficult it is to predict success around the Stadium Course. And it could all come undone on a wicked trio of final holes, with water lurking menacingly around every corner.
This is best exemplified by the iconic, island-green 17th. I would also be inclined to look at players who have found success at other classic Pete Dye courses (Harbour Town, Kiawah, etc).
The Contenders
Clearly World No.1 Scottie Scheffler is going to be the man to beat this week. He is hitting the ball beautifully and every aspect of his game is trending in the right direction.
Furthermore, Rory is really struggling with the putter at present and he hasn’t finished inside the top 20 since claiming that title in Dubai earlier this year. Rory has also missed the cut here in two of his last three attempts and I can’t really see much reason to back him this week.
Xander Schauffele has been typically consistent while former Players champion Justin Thomas has threatened to return to his best form in recent weeks. Hideki Matsuyama and Shane Lowry have looked impressive of late while reigning FedEx Cup champion Viktor Hovland is due a positive week. This is primed to be a fascinating week of PGA Tour action free from any other golfing distractions.
Sidenote: Did I mention that Greg Norman holds the 72-hole record around here? It’s just impossible to escape his tendrils these days.
Past Winners
2023: Scottie Scheffler (-17)
2022: Cameron Smith (-13)
2021: Justin Thomas (-14)
2020: event cancelled
2019: Rory McIlroy (-16)
2018: Webb Simpson (-18)
To Win Outright:
Scottie Scheffler 11/2 | Rory McIlroy 12/1 | Xander Schauffele 20/1 | Justin Thomas 22/1 | Patrick Cantlay 25/1
Value Bets
Shane Lowry- To Win 35/1 | To Place 15/2
Shane Lowry is a form-based player who tends to win when he has been trending in the right direction. And he is arguably the most in-form player in the field outside of Scheffler, finishing T4 at the Cognizant Classic prior to a solo third at the Arnold Plamer. Lowry is a former Major champion who knows how to win big events (he also won premier events at Wentworth and Firestone). He had actually struggled at Bay Hill up until last week and that bodes well considering he finished eighth here back in 2021. He is sixth in the field in approach in his last 24 rounds and I really think he has a shot this week.
Byeong-Hun An- To Win 66/1 | To Place 14/1
Byeong-Hun An just screams value this week (especially at 14/1 in the place markets). He finished in T8 last week to register his fifth top-25 finish in seven 2024 starts (including second at the Sony Open and fourth at the Sentry). He ranked fourth in GIR around Bay Hill and seventh in SG: Off the Tee. He has finished inside the top 35 here in three of his last four visits, shooting under-par in 10 of his last 14 rounds. He has top-ten finishes at four other Pete-Dye tracks and he also putts brilliantly on Bermuda greens.
The Man to Beat- Max Homa- To Win 25/1 | To Place 11/2
California native Max Homa hasn’t won since the Nedbank Challenge in November but his combination of form and course credentials make him an appetizing option at 25/1. He followed a T13 here in 2022 with a commendable T6 outing last year. He hasn’t been electrifying this season but he still possesses four top 20 finishes in six PGA Tour outings (including a T8 at Bay Hill last week). His irons are starting to click and I don’t think we are too far away from witnessing Homa’s A-game.
