The PGA Tour moves to the second leg of the Florida Swing: the Valspar Championship which is hosted by the Copperhead COurse at Innisbrook Resort. Damien Kayat previews.
2024 US PGA Tour
Valspar Championship
Copperhead Course, Innisbrook Resort, Palm Harbour, Florida
21 – 24 March
TPC Sawgrass served up an absolute classic last week, with Scottie Scheffler holding off a slew of contenders to become the first man to defend the Players Championship. Scheffler has now won back-to-back titles this year and he looks hellbent on adding another Green Jacket to his sartorial repertoire.
The rest of the field will be delighted by his absence this week as the tour moves to the next event in the Florida Swing: the Valspar Championship.
The Valspar Championship
This event had humble origins, debuting in 2000 as an opposite-field event in the latter portion of the season. The event was moved forward in the schedule 17 years ago and it was incorporated into the Florida Swing.
The 2020 edition was lost to the pandemic while the 2021 renewal was moved to a May timeslot. The PGA Tour is now in that stretch where everything is inevitably building towards Augusta (which is incredibly less than a month away).
Copperhead Course
The Copperhead Course was designed by Larry Packard and it opened for business in 1974. It has undergone various facelifts over the years (the last of which coming after the 2015 renewal). This is pretty stern tree-lined test that features plenty of undulations and exacting doglegs.
The final three holes- affectionately known as the Snake Pit- will test the players’ cajones come Sunday. Players need to be in the right position from the tee to truly attack these rather small Bermuda greens.
But this is very much a second-shot course and GIR will prove a vital stat this week (it’s little wonder that a player like Paul Casey was successful here). This used to regularly be ranked as the hardest par 71 on the entire PGA Tour but it seems to have played much easier in recent seasons, with Sam Burns twice finishing with a 17-under-par score.
The Contenders
I always balk when I see Xander Schauffele’s name at the top of the markets. One of the most talented players in world golf, Schauffele finished only one shot behind Scheffler last week, picking up his third top-four finish this year.
But he just doesn’t win the number of tournaments that a man of his ability should (almost like Tony Finau a few years back). Justin Thomas is an intriguing one. He started this season in super positive fashion and seemed to be building up a head of steam.
But he has missed the cut in two of his last three outings and it’s hard to predict which JT we will get from week to week. Sam Burns will be looking for his third Valspar title this week while Jordan Spieth- another former champion- will obviously attract a decent share of the galleries.
Elsewhere, the likes of Brain Harman and Tony Finau jump off the page in a pretty strong post-Players field.
Past Winners
2023: Taylor Moore (-10)
2022: Sam Burns (-17) *playoff
2021: Sam Burns (-17)
2020: event cancelled
2019: Paul Casey (-8)
2018: Paul Casey (-10)
To Win Outright:
Xander Schauffele 9/1 | Justin Thomas 12/1 | Sam Burns 12/1 | Jordan Spieth 14/1 | Tony Finau 22/1
Value Bets
Christiaan Bezuidenhout- To Win 50/1 | To Place 11/1
South African Christiaan Bezuidenhout is really enjoying a terrific start to his 2024 campaign. He finished runner-up at the American Express before respectable top-25 finishes at Pebble Beach and Riviera. He finished T13 at last week’s Players and his game just looks ideally suited to Copperhead. He ranks third in the field in Strokes Gained: Approach and that is always a massive indicator of success here. He only made five bogeys at Sawgrass last week and that bodes well ahead of this demanding Copperhead test.
Victor Perez- To Win 125/1 | To Place 27/1
Three-time DP World Tour champion Victor Perez looks like he could be a decent dark horse consideration in the place markets this week. The 2023 Abu Dhabi HSBC Championship winner arrives at Copperhead in pretty solid form. He finished 16th at the Cognizant Classic just two weeks ago (showing an appreciation for Floridian layouts). He then finished in a tie for third at the Puerto Rico Classic and I think the silky Frenchman has what it takes to be competitive this week.
The Man to Beat- Jordan Spieth- To Win 14/1 | To Place 3/1
There have already been four two-time winners of this event since its inception in 2000. Could 2015 champion Jordan Spieth add his name to that list? He also finished T3 here last season, so he clearly has the iron-play to tame Copperhead. But he missed the cut at TPC Sawgrass last week and he has actually been struggling on approach of late. I think he is still smarting from that Riviera DQ and perhaps he will have benefitted from having last weekend off. He already has two top-six finishes this season and he does rank fourth on tour for Birdie Average.
