PREVIEW: 2024 PGA Tour – The Tour Championship

Well, nobody expected that. Keegan Bradley barely scraped into last week’s BMW Championship, literally qualifying in the 50th and final spot.

But the former major champion played some brilliant golf at a surprisingly tricky Castle Pines, holding off a final-day surge from Sam Burns to claim his 7th PGA Tour title.

The quirky Vermont native played smart, risk-avoidant golf and has catapulted himself into fourth place leading into this season-ending trip to East Lake.

The result comes just about a month after Bradley was named as Team USA’s captain for next year’s Ryder Cup (to be hosted at Bethpage Black). Bradley will be feeling quietly confident of becoming the first playing captain at a Ryder Cup since Arnold Palmer back in 1963.

Tour Championship

The season-ending Tour Championship has been a fundamental part of the PGA Tour since its inception in 1987. Tom Watson won the inaugural staging of this event (back when it was known as the Nabisco Championship).

It was conceived as a celebration of the 30 top money earners in a regular season. But the event slowly started to lose its appeal, with the likes of Mickelson and Woods often choosing to skip the old Tour Championship.

There just wasn’t enough incentive for players who were burnt out from an arduous tour season. Enter the FedEx Cup era. The FedEx Cup Playoff series was born in 2007, with vastly improved prizemoney and elevated season-ending stakes (though LIV Golf has usurped the PGA Tour in terms of mind-boggling prize pools).

The series originally consisted of four events until the Dell Technologies Championship was done away with.

In 2019, the tour implemented a new strokes-based system called the FedEx Cup Starting Strokes. It essentially introduced a handicap system whereby the top players from the year will get a distinct advantage.

And I’m really all for it. What’s the point if the 30th-placed guy has an equal shot of victory as a guy who has won seven events throughout the season? But it does diminish the competitive aspect of the event.

The 30-man line-up also makes for one of the least engaging spectacles on the golfing calendar. You will get plenty of history lessons from PGA Tour commentators this week, as they desperately fill the void in between the sporadic action. In any event, here’s how the 30 golfers will start this week.

Scottie Scheffler (-10)
Xander Schauffele (-8)
Hideki Matsuyama (-7)
Keegan Bradley (-6)
Ludvig Aberg (-5)
Rory McIlroy, Collin Morikawa, Wyndham Clark, Sam Burns, Patrick Cantlay (-4)
Sungjae Im, Sahith Theegala, Shane Lowry, Adam Scott, Tony Finau (-3)
Byeong Hun An, Viktor Hovland, Russell Henley, Akshay Bhatia, Robert Macintyre (-2)
Billy Horschel, Tommy Fleetwood, Sepp Straka, Matthieu Pavon, Taylor Pendrith (-1)
Chris Kirk, Tom Hoge, Aaron Rai, Christiaan Bezuidenhout, Justin Thomas (E)

East Lake Golf Course

East Lake Golf Course is a celebrated Donald Ross masterpiece (though only the second most iconic course in Georgia). It does have the distinction of being the oldest golf course in Atlanta, with legendary figure Bobby Jones cutting his teeth on this layout.

Architect Andrew Green has overseen more renovations this season, with new Zorro Zoysia fairways meant to firm up conditions. This is essentially a ball-striker’s paradise (as evidenced by the list of winners below).

Those who have thrived at East Lake tend to have a nice combination of distance and accuracy (like Schauffele and DJ). Players also need to understand how to deal with these vast, undulating Bermuda greens.

I think that it puts more of an onus on great approach play. Players need to know where to land their approach shots to leave them with manageable birdie putts: look for players with strong GIR stats.

The Contenders

Scottie Scheffler started last year’s Tour Championship at 10-under-par, but he was ultimately lapped by a surging Viktor Hovland. Scheffler is coming off a rare bottom-half finish and he will be hugely motivated to end this season with a bang. He has enjoyed a remarkable campaign but this is one title that has eluded him thus far.

Xander Schauffele is the one man who has managed to keep pace with Scheffler all season (no doubt aided by two major victories). Hideki Matsuyama was forced to withdraw last week due to a shoulder injury but he will still be sitting pretty a 7-under-par (courtesy of that crunch victory at TPC Southwind).

Bradley will start at 6-under while Ludvig Aberg’s runner-up finish in Colorado has vaulted him above Rory into a 5-under starting position.

Rory is a past East Lake master. But his form has been all over the place lately. Can he unlock something in his game this week and grab an unbelievable 4th FedEx Cup title?

Past FedEx Cup winners

2023: Viktor Hovland
2022: Rory McIlroy
2021: Patrick Cantlay
2020: Dustin Johnson
2019: Rory McIlroy
2018: Justin Rose

To Win Outright:

Scottie Scheffler 11/10 | Xander Schauffele 24/10 | Hideki Matsuyama 10/1 | Ludvig Aberg 16/1 | Rory McIlroy 20/1

Value Bet

Hideki Matsuyama – To Win 10/1 | To Place 2/1

This is an interesting play. The Japanese star obviously withdrew last week with a shoulder issue. I feel like that was likely just Matsuyama being ultra-cautious ahead of the season-ending Tour Championship (he was going to be in the mix regardless of where he finished following his win at TPC Southwind).

In any event, all the injury hubbub has probably lengthened his odds. Matsuyama has finished inside the top five here twice in his career (in 2016 and 2018).

He finished 6th at Pinehurst No.2 earlier this year (another Donald Ross design). And he was brilliant at TPC Southwind, gaining 5.7 strokes on approach.

The Man to Beat – Xander Schauffele – To Win 24/10 | To Place 48/100

This is really a no-brainer. Schauffele won his first two major championships this season and has been the one person who has managed to keep within spitting distance of Scottie Scheffler.

He is also Mr East Lake, winning here and finishing runner-up another three times. In fact, he has actually finished with the best gross score here on three occasions.

He is one of the purest ball-strikers I have ever seen and he just understands what it takes to win here. Sure, there have been minor tweaks to the course. But it is essentially the same challenge and I think Schauffele is ending the season with a little more gusto than Scheffler (Olympics aside).