Damien Kayat previews the 2023 Genesis Scottish Open.
2023 US PGA Tour/ DP World Tour
Rolex Series
Genesis Scottish Open
The Renaissance Club, Dirleton, North Berwick
13th-16th July
Despite missing out on a final round 59, Austria’s Sepp Straka boosted his Ryder Cup hopes with victory at last week’s John Deere Classic. Rasmus Hojgaard also gave his Ryder Cup chances a huge bump with a nail-biting playoff victory at last week’s Made in HimmerLand event. I have signaled out last week’s US PGA Tour and DP World Tour winners as this week will feature two co-sanctioned events.
You have to appreciate the irony of it all. The US PGA Tour decided to create these co-sanctioned events last year as a bulwark against the incipient threat of the dastardly LIV Tour. Now the PGA Tour has negotiated a secret merger between all the tours and LIV has taken one closer step to legitimacy. But that’s a conversation for another day. All that I know is that this week’s Scottish Open and Barbasol Championships will both be co-sanctioned events for the 2nd year running.
The first two editions of the Scottish Open were staged in 1935 and 1936. The 3rd edition was only played in 1972 and two years later the tournament disappeared from the roster. It was reintroduced to the DP World Tour in 1986 and has been an ever-present on the tour since. This event was granted illustrious Rolex Series status in 2017 and it was further elevated last year when it became a co-sanctioned by the US PGA Tour. That means that the top US PGA Tour players are not only using this as preparation for Royal Liverpool next week: there are FedEx Cup points at stake.
The Scottish Open has been the warm-up event for the Open Championship for many years and since 2011 it has been staged on a traditional links layout. This will be the 5th consecutive Scottish Open hosted at the spectacular Renaissance Club.
This course was opened as recently as 2008 and is situated close to iconic Open Championship venue Muirfield. Changes were made just five years after its opening, with the Honourable Company of Edinburgh Golfers facilitating a land swap that resulted in three new holes. It has resulted in some dramatic holes that connect to the coastline and showcase the majestic Firth of Forth.
The Renaissance Club was a par 70 but changes were made to the layout prior to last year’s event. The 7th hole played as a 561-yard par 5 and was transformed into a beastly 505-yard par 4. This certainly led to some significantly higher scoring (Schauffele won with a score of 7-under-par). This is a true coastal links that will be highly contingent on weather conditions. Look for players with strong links form and the ability to control the trajectory of their irons.
An absolutely stellar field will be teeing it up in Scotland this week. In fact, only Jon Rahm and the LIV duo of Smith and Koepka will miss out from the world’s top 12. Rory McIlroy will be teeing it up this week as the ostensible crowd favourite. He will be looking to avenge his agonizing Sunday no-show at St Andrews with victory at Royal Liverpool. Good form in this event is often a solid precursor for success at the Open Championship. Defending champion Xander Schauffele has been consistent as ever while Scottie Schefffler still sits atop the world rankings.
How crazy is it that Rickie Fowler currently sits above Viktor Hovland in this week’s markets? I know Fowler is a former Scottish Open champion and that he has been in some rich form of late. But I still feel it’s slightly insulting to put him above the likes of Hovland and Spieth.
Past Winners
2022: Xander Schauffele (-7)
2021: Min Woo Lee (-18) *playoff
2020: Aaron Rai (-11) *playoff
2019: Bernd Wiesberger (-22) *playoff
2018: Branden Stone (-20)
2017: Rafa Cabrera Bello (-13) *playoff
Betting Favourites (To Win)
Rory McIlroy (7/1), Scottie Scheffler (7/1), Patrick Cantlay (12/1), Xander Schauffele (14/1), Rickie Fowler (16/1)
Value Bets
Tommy Fleetwood- To Win (25/1), To Place (11/2)
I’m prepared to forgive Tommy for his last missed cut at the Travelers. He put on a ball-striking clinic at both the US and Canadian Opens (finishing T5 and runner-up respectively). He gained a total of 18.6 strokes with his irons over those two events: iron-play has proven to be one of the best indicators of success around Renaissance. He also has brilliant course history, losing to Rai in a playoff in 2020 and finishing 4th last year. He has four top five finishes in his last nine starts and it feels like he is building towards a win.
Min Woo Lee- To Win (35/1), To Place (15/2)
This just looks like spectacular value. The 2021 champ here, Min Woo Lee is a magnificent links proponent who just thrives in blustery conditions. He also arrives in Scotland off the back of some really encouraging form. He finished 18th at the US PGA Championship, 5th at the US Open and 9th at the Travelers. He then hopped across the pond and finished 15th at the British Masters despite some fearsome jetlag. He took a week off last week and 35/1 looks like an exceptional price for the Aussie.
The Man to Beat- Tyrell Hatton- To Win (25/1), To Place (11/2)
You always have to fancy Hatton when it comes to the links. The two-time Alfred Dunhill Links Champion has been in extremely consistent form this year and it’s surely just a matter of time till he secures another victory. He was 3rd at the Wells Fargo, 5th at the Byron Nelson, 12th at the Memorial and 3rd at the Canadian Open.
He fought back well from disappointing starts at the last two Majors and I just think he has all the tools to succeed this week. Sure, finishes of 14th, 18th and 24th around Renaissance doesn’t scream banker. But he is familiar with the course now and arrives in excellent form.
