Written by @Matt_Cee for @Hollywoodbets. Follow them both on Twitter and Facebook now!
The Masters | Thursday 10 April – Sunday 13 February | Augusta National Golf Club
The 2014 Major season tees off on Thursday as the greatest golfers in the world head to Augusta National for the prestigious Masters. As usual, golf fans are in for a treat as Augusta National Golf Club, arguably the most pristine course on the planet, will test every aspect of the participant’s game as they strive for glory and the chance to don the famous green jacket. Last week, Tiger Woods announced that he would not be participating in this year’s instalment and although he isn’t the player he used to be, he always stands a chance at Augusta. With him out of the running, Rory McIlroy slots in as favourite and Hollywood are currently quoting him at 9/1. Following him, last year’s winner Adam Scott is available at 10/1, whilst Augusta expert Phil Mickelson can be had at 13/1. None of these prices look like enough value for me though and I’m going to be looking to make some real money this week. So who will tame the beast that is Augusta and claim their place in golfing history? Let’s have a look and see.
Augusta is known to be one of the toughest courses in the world and a quick look at the stats shows why. The 7,400 yard par 72 boasts the fastest, most undulating greens on the planet and it’s been said that your average amateur would struggle to 4-putt here. Whilst the greens are one thing, getting there is another. All the fairways are mowed against the hole direction which means that each hole plays longer than expected as, more often than not, the ball will not run as far as it normally would. With this in mind it’s clear that driving distance is an important stat but accuracy must also be kept in mind, as players who venture off the fairway will struggle to make par. With this added distance comes the necessity for more accurate iron play, bringing GIR% into play. Hitting the green will be key and on these greens, the closer to the pin players can get it, the better.
To Win Outright
Rory McIlroy 9/1
Adam Scott 10/1
Phil Mickelson 13/1
Jason Day 16/1
Matt Kuchar 22/1
VALUE BETS
Hunter Mahan (45/1 a win, 81/10 a place)
Hunter Mahan will win a Major one day and there is a very real chance that his time will come on Sunday. A quick look at his current form shows he is playing some great golf at the moment and of the eight tournaments he’s played on Tour, he’s managed to finish inside the Top 10 in four of those. The best finish of the lot there was at the Waste Management Phoenix Open, a golfing spectacular that draws huge crowds. I don’t think it’s a coincidence that he thrives in vibrant atmospheres and despite a poor Masters showing in 2013, he’s fared well at Augusta in the past. A T12 in 2012 and two Top 10’s prior to that prove he has what it takes to handle this course. Don’t be surprised to see him in the mix come Sunday.
Dustin Johnson (25/1 a win, 9/2 a place)
Dustin Johnson has a tendency to perform well in the Majors but for some reason has never managed to ‘master’ the conditions at Augusta. He had his best tournament yet last year, when he managed an impressive T13 finish, and I think that this year he could come into his own, possibly managing a Top 5 at least. His driving game suits the course to a tee and there aren’t many players who can hit their irons as well as he can; his only real weakness in the past few years has been his putting. This year that has changed though and he now finds himself sitting tenth in strokes gained putting for the 2014 season. With this newfound ability under his belt he should have the overall game to go far here. Each way on Johnson looks a great bet to me.
Matt Kuchar (22/1 a win, 4/1 a place)
Whilst Dustin Johnson has traditionally struggled, looking to turn that form around this year, Matt Kuchar has come agonisingly close in the past and will hoping to finally go all the way. Coming into this on the back of some sublime form, with a T4 in Texas and a second place finish in Houston, he will be confident that he can go one better than the T3 he managed in 2012. That close finish was followed by a T8 last year so he certainly knows his way around Augusta. Again, each way is the bet for me.
TOP BET: Jason Day (16/1 a win, 29/10 a place)
If anyone deserved to win a Major last year, it was this talented young Australian. We rarely see his name mentioned in the smaller tournaments but you can rest assured that he is at his best when the stakes are high and his Major form confirms this. In 2011 he came agonisingly close in both the Masters and the US Open, when he managed second place in both and he nearly repeated those performances in 2013. After a solo third at last year’s Masters, he came even closer with a T2 at the US Open and did himself proud at the PGA Championship with a T8. This year he will be looking to go one better and with his course form, there is no reason he can’t. Each way on Day looks almost a certainty given his form. Let’s hope he proves me right.
