The Masters 2022: Betting Preview

2022 US PGA Tour
US Masters
Augusta National Golf Club, Augusta, Georgia
6th-9th April

Plenty of heavyweights in with a chance this year

As if the lead-up to this year’s Masters wasn’t interesting enough. The entire golfing world seemed resigned to the fact that Collin Morikawa would replace Jon Rahm as the World Number One.

But it was the unassuming Scottie Scheffler who would usurp Rahm on the eve of this year’s Masters. Augusta specialists such as Dustin Johnson and Cameron Smith have been in auspicious form leading into the year’s first Major.

Rory McIlroy’s quest for a career Grand Slam is a yearly soap opera that can’t be ignored (however unlikely that looks at present). Hideki Matsuyama has enjoyed a brilliant 12 months since picking up perhaps the most globally significant Green Jacket in recent memory.

Return of the Tiger?

But all of these juicy narratives are reduced to mere sideshow status when a certain Tiger rolls into town. The five-time Masters champ sent the golfing fraternity into a state of dumbstruck paralysis last week, practicing on the hallowed Augusta turf a little over a year after his horrifying LA car accident.

Ever the showman, Tiger is tight-lipped on whether he will actually be participating this week. But his mere presence is like that moment when (spoiler alert) all the other Spidermen rock up in Spiderman: No Way Home. You had my curiosity. Now you have my attention.

There’s nothing quite like Augusta National

What more can really be said about the Masters? It is the only golfing Major that is played at the same course every year: the iconic Augusta National. This bastion of tradition and privilege has its irritations.

The commentators have to obnoxiously refer to fans as patrons for the week (as if to fool us into thinking we are witnessing a fine arts display and not watching men hit tiny balls into holes). But you can’t beat that music.

The soothing, classical tones that accompany the Masters coverage is the stuff of guided meditation. Such serenity.

Augusta National was founded at the start of the Great Depression and was originally known as the Augusta National Invitation Tournament. It was Bobby Jones’ baby and was co-founded by him and Clifford Roberts- a wealthy New York investment banker.

This gave birth to Augusta National (which was co-designed by Jones and Alister Mackenzie). The course is famously built on the site of an old nursery, with all the holes given botanical monikers. Cute.

GIR to be crucial this week

Officially opened in 1933, Augusta National has evolved immeasurably over the years. Its old Bermuda greens gave way to Bentgrass over time. The fairways have also been tightened considerably over the years.

Tom Fazio oversaw a massive overhaul in 2002 that led to further tightening of the fairways. But it’s important to note that hitting fairways is not really a priority at Augusta.

The tree-lined fairways feature trees with high-hanging branches that don’t fully punish errant driving. Distance has become more crucial over the last few years, with Augusta now playing over 7,500 yards.

But the stats that seem to really matter this week are scrambling and GIR. Scrambling is a well-established key to success around these super-quick Bentgrass greens.

The steep runoff areas will test the players’ short games to the limit. It’s little wonder that the likes of Woods and Mickelson have been consistent threats at Augusta. Also, 12 of the last 15 winners have ranked 7th or better for GIR.

Understanding the contours of these greens are crucial when players are hitting their approaches. In that sense, hitting sound approach shots at Augusta can sometimes feel like reading tough putts. It all comes down to understanding the greens.

Matsuyama to go back-to-back?

I struggle to see how recently displaced World Number One Jon Rahm makes sense as this week’s favourite. He has struggled in contention of late and (honestly) he’s still looking some way away from peak physical condition.

But perhaps he will benefit from diminished expectations this week. Hideki Matsuyama has the type of unflappable demeanour to make him a real threat at Augusta.

But as I noted earlier, the likes of Dustin Johnson and Cameron Smith appear to be the real threats. Scottie Scheffler has less course experience and will do well to compete with these Augusta aficionados.

And speaking of Augusta heavyweights: how did I not mention Jordan Spieth? There are just too many subplots to meaningfully engage with in this tiny blurb. But I think this year’s Masters- with or without the mighty Tiger- is going to be one of the best in recent memory.

Past Winners

2021: Hideki Matsuyama (-10)
2020: Dustin Johnson (20)
2019: Tiger Woods (-13)
2018: Patrick Reed (-15)
2017: Sergio Garcia (-9) *playoff

To Win Outright:

Jon Rahm 11/1 | Justin Thomas 14/1 | Dustin Johnson 16/1 | Cameron Smith 16/1 | Scottie Scheffler 16/1

Value Bets

Jordan Spieth- To Win 20/1 | To Place 4/1

I just have to opt for Jordan Spieth at this price. The 2015 Augusta champion has an absolutely sterling record around this course. He has finished runner-up twice and third twice. But he doesn’t come into this year’s event in fantastic form. Having said that, Spieth did lead the field in strokes-gained-tee-to-green at the Valero Texas Open last week. But he had one of his worse putting performances ever on tour, surrendering 7.2 shots to the field with the flat-stick. But I wouldn’t feel too concerned about that. There’s something about Augusta that just brings out the magic in Spieth (especially his short game).