Many of the best golfers in the world head to Mexico this week for the 3rd edition of the newly revamped WGC Mexico Championship.
WGC Mexico | 21 – 24 February | Club de Golf Chapultepec, Mexico City, Mexico
This event started life in 1999 as the WGC American Express. It has gone through various guises, only for Doral in Florida to become the entrenched host in 2007. But then Donald Trump waded into proceedings, overseeing a hugely expensive renovation in 2016. The renovations were universally panned and the decision was made – rather cheekily – to move this event to Donald Trump’s favourite holiday destination: Mexico. Trump warned players – in his usual diplomatic fashion – to take out kidnapping insurance before heading to Mexico. But that hyperbole has been firmly debunked and Club de Golf Chapultepec owns the rights to this event till 2023.
Designed by Scottish brothers Willie and Alex Smith, Club de Golf Chapultepec is a classic, tree-lined affair that was opened way back in 1928. The kikuyu fairways give way to bentgrass-Poa hybrid greens; much like the ones on display at Riviera last week. While the course may look imposing in length, it actually plays considerably shorter due to altitude. Driving distance is perhaps more compelling than driving accuracy, despite the fairly narrow fairways. Scrambling stats appear crucial in the admittedly tiny sample size of two events.
World Number One Justin Rose is one notable absentee in this field, opening the door to relinquishing that honour. American Justin Thomas leads the markets after his runner-up finish at Riviera. Rory McIlroy’s late surge last week sees him propelled up in the reckoning alongside inaugural champ Dustin Johnson. Tiger Woods is playing his first event in Mexico while both Phil Mickelson and Ricky Fowler enter this event with wins under their belt. There are a plethora of sub-plots to feast on in what is shaping up to be an amazing weekend in Mexico.
Past Winners
2018: Phil Mickelson (-16)*playoff
2017: Dustin Johnson (-14)
2016: Adam Scott (-12) – Doral
2015: Dustin Johnson (-9) – Doral
2014: Patrick Reed (-4) – Doral
To Win Outright:
Justin Thomas 10/1 | Rory McIlroy 11/1 | Dustin Johnson 11/1 | Jon Rahm 14/1 | Ricky Fowler 16/1
Value Bets
Sergio Garcia- To Win 45/1, To Place 19/2
Sergio Garcia’s petulant behaviour on the greens in Saudi Arabia drew the ire of the golfing community. It was yet another chapter in what has become a slightly chequered disciplinary career for the Spaniard. An under-the-radar top 40 finish last week was probably just the tonic necessary for Garcia. His recent form has been exemplary, with six top 10’s in his last eight starts: that sequence included a victory at Valderrama. A recent podium at the Dubai Desert Classic highlights his form. Garcia has also improved steadily around this course: he finished 12th in 2017 prior to a solid seventh place last season. 45/1 seems slightly skewed for the 2017 Masters Champion.
Haotong Li- To Win 55/1, To Place 12/1
Beautiful ball-striking is certainly a facet of Haotong Li’s match. If anything, his short game has on occasion let him down in critical situations. But I have no doubt that Li could be a factor in this week’s event. The 23-year-old burst onto the scene with a third place finish at the 2017 Open Championship. Since then he has become one of the most consistent players on the European Tour. He has enjoyed a brilliant sequence of results since his top 10 at last year’s British Masters. He finished solo second in Turkey prior to a top five at the Gary Player Country Club. And let’s not forget his last brilliant outing in Saudi Arabia. He went toe-to-toe with Dustin Johnson, ultimately finishing two shots behind the big-hitting American in yet another solo second. Li looks woefully undervalued this week and to me represents outstanding value at 55/1.
The Man to Beat- Xander Schauffele- To Win 20/1, To Place 44/10
I’m opting for the exceptionally talented young American Xander Schauffele this week. Schauffele is of the course the reigning WGC king, having captured the WGC HSBC Championships towards the end of last year. Schauffele also won the Sentry Tournament of Champions, making it two wins out of seven events. Schauffle opened last week at Riviera with a disappointing 74. He fought back courageously to ultimately finish in a tie for 15th. Schauffele made his WGC debut last year in this event and earned a respectable tie for 18th. He was twice on the edge of claiming a maiden Major Championship last season and is hugely appealing in the upper echelons of the market.
