Neil Morrice brings us all of his best bets and tips for Saturday’s racing at Gulfstream Park, Tampa Bay Downs and Randwick, including video analysis.
Other international racing tips for Saturday:
SCHWEPPES ALL AGED STAKES
(Group 1) 1400m
THE half-million dollar crescendo to the Carnival sees PIERATA grace the track for the final time and trainer Greg Hickman believes he has the 5yo entire cherry ripe following two outings at the highest level that should have brought the son of Pierro to his peak. Especially eye taking was his recent fourth on a heavy track to Nature Strip in the TJ Smith Sprint, beaten a total of 2.4 lengths, but less than half a length for second. He’s going to be at his supreme fitness level for today, and prove hard to beat with jockey Tommy Berry stating “there’ll be no excuses, he’s as good as he’s ever been”.
Theoretically, Pierata has half a length to make up on SANTA ANA LANE who finished second that day. The Anthony Freedman- trained 7yo had disappointed when returning from a three-month absence at Group 2 level here in early March, but after a pleasing trial showed in the TJ Smith that he’s right back in the zone.
Further behind was the Godolphin-owned BIVOUAC, on this occasion unable to adopt the forcing tactics that carried him to an emphatic victory in the Group 1 William Reid Stakes at Moone Valley. Hugh Bowman will most likely attempt to have the Exceed And Excel colt in a prominent position throughout from what could prove a dream slot in the gate here. As a 3yo Bivouac has potential for improvement and has always possessed a big reputation.
DREAMFORCE displayed a liking for an easy track when inching home in the George Ryder (Group 1) after getting no sort of run in the Group 1 Chipping Norton. The gelded son of Fastnet Rock was having a third run back from a break for that game success over The Bostonian and Te Akau Shark, with BRANDENBURG further back in fourth.
One that could upset the applecart at a big double-figure price of around 20-1 is STANDOUT, who like Pierata is having his third run up and has triumphed in such circumstances previously. Looking at slightly faster conditions than when he flopped in the soft in the Canterbury Stakes, which in truth are not absolutely ideal, trainer Gerald Ryan expressed delight in a trial over 900m in which Standout sat back and ran over the top of them at the finish. Group 1 king Glen Boss is in the irons as his mount attempts 1400m for the first time.
Prediction
1st PIERATA
2nd Santa Ana Lane
3rd Bivouac
4th Dreamforce
5th Standout
6th Brandenburg
MOËT & CHANDON CHAMPAGNE STAKES
(Group 1) 1600m
WORTH a tad less than the All Aged Stakes, this juvenile encounter promises to be a sizzler with KING’S LEGACY a popular pick to successfully follow-up his dramatic last to first victory swoop in the Group 1 Inglis Sires’ Stakes at the beginning on the month. The Peter and Paul Snowden-trained colt had disappointingly blown out in the Golden Slipper at Rosehill, but enjoyed Hugh Bowman aboard for the first time on his most recent outing, with that man retaining the mount today.
Stablemate AIM finished just out of the money in the Inglis Sires’ but has four and three-quarter lengths to find with King’s Legacy under Kerrin McEvoy which seems a tall order, while a third runner for the Snowden barn, UNTAMED, is closely matched with Holyfield and has to be taken seriously.
In his relatively short time Down Under, Tom Marquand has greatly impressed some of the best judges and made a name for himself with successive Group 1 triumphs on Addeyyb. Now the Englishman enjoys the opportunity to put another Group 1 in his knapsack on HOLYFIELD, on whom he impressed in landing the Group 3 Schweppervescence at Rosehill. That was a third conversion from just four career starts for I Am Invincible colt, who will encounter similar underfoot conditions as he steps up to the mile for the first time for trainers Ciaron Maher and David Eustace.
OLE KIRK has almost two lengths to find with King’s Legacy from the Inglis Sires’ but in fairness, the colt came back with a genuine excuse after being hampered in the early stages. In an earlier Group 2 at Flemington he attracted the attention of the Stewards, running on when it was all too late but getting to within just under a length of the winner Lunar Fox. There’s, therefore, a thread of bad luck attached to Ole Kirk but at the same time, many shrewd judges are quite prepared to put their cash behind him to end it.
For value, a roughie that could take home a slice of the cake is NOT AN OPTION, who when returning from a two months break at this track finished off strongly in a Group 3 over 1100m. He looks like a horse that should greatly appreciate the extra.
Prediction
1st OLE KIRK
2nd Holyfield
3rd Untamed
4th King’s Legacy
5th Not An Option
6th Aim
Gulfstream Park Best Bets
Race 5 (Maiden Special Weight): No5 – GRAY’S FABLE
Trainer: Roger Attfield – Jockey: Dylan Davis
GRAY’S FABLE had Coastal Defense in his wake when posting a minor earn over course and distance and has had exactly a month to get over those exertions. The grey was maintaining his record of getting into the money on all career starts but now gets a fifth different jockey in as many starts. Davis is riding at a more than 20% strike-rate and could help make the difference. There are more runners but he should enjoy a good trip from his gate, which gives him options. Conversely, COASTAL DEFENCE breaks from the outside, while HOLY MEISTER is also out wide and has to put behind him a heavy defeat when odds-on and has become disappointing.
Prediction: 5-12-11
Race 7 (Maiden Special Weight): No7 – SEIZE THE HAY
Trainer: Todd Pletcher – Jockey: Luis Saez
With so much to like about the way he shaped on introduction over nine furlongs here in early March, SEIZE THE DAY gets the chance to endorse that initial promise now cutting back to a mile. The Carpe Diem colt chased home a well-backed favourite in Juulstone who was the more wound up, but the boot could be on the other foot here as Pletcher’s charge takes on perennial bridesmaid FREEDOM’S FLIGHT in receipt of 8lb from that year older foe. The latter hit the board in all three starts here in 2019 before doing likewise in two outings at Keeneland in the fall. He wasn’t wanted in the market when fourth on return from a 160-day break over this course and distance last month, and should be sharper.
Prediction: 7-1-5
Race 9 Allowance Optional Claiming: No8 – RIDEFORTHECAUSE
Trainer: Gail Cox – Jockey: Dylan Davis
Crucial to the outcome of this distaffers-only contest could be the recent form shown by RIDEFORTHECAUSE, a run that gives her a possible fitness edge over the other likely market leaders. The Candy Ride filly began her career in 2019 with successive triumphs at Woodbine, and after a needed first look at the Gulfstream panorama returned after 90 days to trouble the judge at this level at the end of March. If that has taken her close to her peak she will give the likes of ART OF ALMOST, ALWAYS SHOPPING and BRAMBLE QUEEN plenty to think about.
Prediction: 8-9-5
Race 11 Allowance Optional Claiming: No9 – KITTEN’S COVERGIRL
Trainer: Jose Gallegos – Jockey: Luis Saez
Of the two AOCs on the card this is the stronger but equally gives us a chance of some value. Hopefully, KITTEN’S COVERGIRL can provide some of that as she looks like a mare on the cusp of a breakthrough. Since her move to the Gallegos barn before Christmas she’s done little wrong – other than win – in three starts here at this level. She’s looked comfortable at the minimum trip, putting in two thirds and latterly gaining a runners-up rosette when a beaten favourite, but that should have brought her to concert pitch. The recent form of DAY BY DAY is impressive and she may pose a real threat is handling her wide post, while hat-trick seeker LADY GRACE returns from a longer break than usual for top connections, and will be equally tough if ready.
Prediction: 9-15-7
Tampa Bay Downs Best Bets
Race 1 (Allowance Optional Claiming): No4 ROL AGAIN QUESTION
Trainer: Jose Delgado – Jockey: Willie Martinez
ROL AGAIN QUESTION has experienced the winning feeling four times in his last nine starts at this course, latterly when starting a shade of odds-on for an identical contest. If showing his readiness after a three-month break he can end the winning sequence of MY BOY LENNY whilst also resisting the ultra-consistent DIAMOND DUST.
Prediction: 4-5-3
Race 7 (Maiden Special Weight): No5 – ECONOMIC POLICY
Trainer: Chad Brown – Jockey: Antonio Gallardo
ECONOMIC POLICY can show that the losses sustained on his debut over track and trip at the end of January were merely lent. The Giant’s Causeway gelding has enjoyed an 80-day break since failing to cope with COMMENCE and will be sharper for that experience. His jockey is hitting a more than 30% strike-rate and the combination can prove too hot for market rival MAROON MANIAC to handle.
Prediction: 5-4-8
Race 8 (Allowance Optional Claiming): No2 – MY GIRL ANNIE
Trainer: M Ferraro – Jockey: Walber Alencar
MY GIRL ANNIE hadn’t run in an AOC for more than a year before an encouraging run for her new barn at the beginning of the month. As a 14-1 shot she gave Clever Tale plenty to think about, and if in the same mood can cause problems to hat-trick seeker DREAMING DIAMONDS who is down a peg on the distance ladder moving off the $10,000 claiming level. LENA HORNE finished behind the main pick on her last start and should struggle to turn the tables.
Prediction: 2-5-7
