Winning Form brings us his best bets and tips for Kembla Grange on Thursday, 22 July.
Best Bet: COMMAND KING (Race 8)
Value Bet: SEPULCHRE (Race 9)
Jackpot (race 6 – 9)
There are four unraced runners in the field, so as is always the case in these types of races, a keen eye should be kept on the betting markets to get some indication as to whether the connections believe that they can win first time out. Any betting support for a runner or runners should be respected. Of the raced runners, MIRROR ONE may prove to be the best. he finished second on debut over six furlongs, just a head behind the winner, despite jumping awkwardly and racing green in the home straight. He ran on strongly that day, suggesting that he should appreciate the extra ground on offer here. From his handy draw four, he could be the one to side with today.
KENNEDY CHOICE had finished second in his two runs prior to ending up in third place last time out over 1100M, 4.2L back from the winner. He gets gate eight and is trained by ex-SA jockey/trainer David Payne.
CARLISLE BAY overraced in the middle stages and then came three-wide into the straight before finishing third last time out over 1500M, just over three and a half lengths adrift of the victor. The colt has to negotiate draw ten, but he should nevertheless be included in all bets.
STORMBORN is a 3yr old filly taking on the boys, but she had her consistency rewarded with a short-head victory last time out over five furlongs. She jumped awkwardly, but recovered well to race at the head of affairs, before battling on well to hold off the late challengers in the dash down to the wire. She has gate five and should give the males a good run for their money.
STOICAL followed up his penultimate run win over five furlongs with a fourth-place finish next time out over 1100M, three lengths behind the winner, despite also jumping awkwardly. He is a speedy sort who is sure to put his draw three to good use.
YOUNG HEART is yet another one to have jumped awkwardly in his latest outing over five furlongs before ending up in sixth spot, just over three lengths back from the winner. He finished well that day and from draw six, he should be doing his best work late.
The day’s best bet, COMMAND KING has yet to finish unplaced in his six runs to date, recording two wins, three seconds and one third-place finish and seems a versatile sort. He followed up his win over ten furlongs three runs back with a second-place finish over 1300M and then another second in his latest outing over seven furlongs, 0.8L behind the winner. He jumps from a cosy draw two and will have the cheekpieces fitted for the first time. He may well prove to be difficult to topple today.
NIKAU will however be out to spoil the party after finishing fourth last time out over 1300M, four lengths off the winner. She is a 3yr old filly taking on males and has a wide gate sixteen out of eighteen, but she gets a set of blinkers fitted for the first time and if these have the desired effect, she could emerge as the biggest danger to the top pick.
SO SNEEKY goes for his hat-trick after wins over seven furlongs and the latest over a mile when putting seven lengths between himself and the opposition. He has not fared too well in his draw either, being stuck out in gate fourteen, but he is a known front-runner, so this may not be such a big issue.
SEPULCHRE is a 6yr old mare taking on boys, but she has shown solid improvement in her last two outings, culminating with a head victory last time out over this c&d. She raced just off the pace and then kicked clear at the 200M mark that day, before holding on well to secure her sixth career win. From her draw six, she is taken to be the value bet on the day’s card.
DEADLY IMPACT has finished closer to the winner in each of his last three runs, the latest when second over a mile, 1.3L behind the winner at this track, this after jumping awkwardly. He also did not get the clearest of passages in the home straight that day and should have finished closer to the winner as a result. The colt will have to overcome draw ten but should be right up there in the firing line.
DUCHESS OF WINDSOR is a 5yr old mare who finished fourth in her latest outing over nine furlongs, two lengths behind the winner. She battled all the way down to the wire that day and a repeat of that effort should make her a big runner in this contest. She is drawn in gate seven and has her peak run after returning from a 12-week rest.