Neil Morrice best bets and tips – Royal Ascot 2024 – Day 5

ROYAL ASCOT 2024 – DAY 5

Race 1 CHESHAM STAKES (Listed)

No12 SEAPLANE (Each Way)
Trainer: Paul Cole – Jockey: Rossa Ryan

Golden Horn colt SEAPLANE put in an encouraging first effort when chasing home Santa Savana in a Leicester maiden and has learned plenty from the experience. From a family, his trainer knows all about, the close relative of Group 1 winner Sumo Sam can definitely have a say in the outcome of a race Cole last won with 33-1 stunner Berkshire.

Five fillies take on 13 males and of that number, Aidan O’Brien’s BEDTIME STORY commands respect as she’s by Frankel out of a very fast filly by Dark Angel. Sure to start favourite today, she powered home on her Leopardstown introduction and is clearly smart.

Frankel is also represented by the once-raced AGE OF GOLD who made no mistake on his first run at Yarmouth and does not have to carry a penalty. At longer odds EXPENSIVE ROSE should go into all permutations as her trainer likes to target the race with his best prospects.

Prediction: 1st SEAPLANE, 2nd Bedtime Story, 3rd Age Of Gold, 4th Expensive Rose

Race 2 HARDWICKE STAKES (Group 2)

No8 MIDDLE EARTH (Nap)
Trainer: John Gosden – Jockey: Oisin Murphy

As one of a select few top-class progeny of ill-fated stallion Roaring Lion, MIDDLE EARTH carries a burden of responsibility to post for this fascinating contest. He was skilfully nurtured out of the handicap ranks to run in the St Leger which proved a bridge too far, but he put the record straight over the same trip in the Noel Murless Stakes at this track, and was gameness personified in taking out Newbury’s John Porter by a whisker on his 2024 reappearance.

With his trip versatility in his armoury, he’s a top prospect for owners Qatar Bloodstock and can turn the tables from Doncaster on CONTINUOUS, who then ran well to finish fifth in the Arc but lacks a run this season.

It’s hard to look past the front two in the betting but US challenger MISSED THE CUT interests me as the son of Quality Road will enjoy the drying ground. He also has very good form to bring to the table from Santa Anita, where he’s a winner on both dirt and grass.

Prediction: 1st MIDDLE EARTH, 2nd Continuous, 3rd Missed The Cut

Race 3 QUEEN ELIZABETH II JUBILEE STAKES (Group 1)

No6 MITBAAHY
Trainer: Charlie Hills – Jockey: Jamie Spencer

This isn’t the strongest of renewals with KINROSS setting the bar that the others need to jump over if they are to beat him. The much-travelled seven-year-old has raced in England, France and the States and took out the Group 1 Champions Sprint over course and distance in 2022 while finishing second to ART POWER in the same race last autumn. After Frankie Dettori’s retirement, Rossa Ryan takes the reins and the combination looks sure to go well on a belated return to the fray.

Art Power might trouble the judge but really needs some cut in the ground to be seen at his best. SHOULDVEBEENARING is closely matched with MILL STREAM on Duke Of York Stakes running last month but he was no match for Mitbaahy in the Group 2 Greenlands Stakes at the Curragh. That race saw my selection raise his game, with the form being endorsed when runner-up Regional occupied the same position in the King Charles III Stakes here on Tuesday.

BELIEVING finished a creditable fourth in the same contest and could again prove competitive if allowed to take his chance.

Prediction: 1st MITBAAHY, 2nd Shouldvebeenaring, 3rd Mill Stream, 4th Art Power, 5th Believing

Race 4 JERSEY STAKES (Group 3)

No1 HAATEM
Trainer: Richard Hannon – Jockey: James Doyle

All the talk ahead of this 1400 metres race up the straight course had been about Coolmore’s RIVER TIBER. Last season’s Coventry Stakes winner finished third in the Irish 2,000 Guineas with HAATEM one place in front of him. But as it was River Tiber’s first run of the season and he now enjoys a 3lb pull in the weights there’s been a welter of money for him.

I respect the favourite but feel HAATEM is the one to be on as he’s drawn on a part of the course that’s been favoured through the week. Such factors can mean the difference between victory and defeat, and it can prove the case here. Frankel’s close relative KIKKULI holds scope for improvement off just three career starts but might be too babyish to be able to win this.

NEVER SO BRAVE has been progressive in handicaps for Sir Michael Stoute and is probably Saffie Osborne’s best ride at the meeting. I wouldn’t rule him out, while one that could trouble the judge at a fancy prince is the Richard Fahey-trained NATIVE AMERICAN.

Prediction: 1st HAATEM, 2nd River Tiber, 3rd Never So Brave, 4th Kikkuli, 5th Native American

Race 5 WOKINGHAM HANDICAP

No20 FERROUS (Each Way)
Trainer: Jack Channon – Jockey: David Probert

FERROUS is yet to race on ground as quick as he will encounter today, but the grey is bred to go on it and has looked an overall much-improved performer this year. His AW triumphs at Wolverhampton and Kempton were backed up by a very good run in defeat behind LETHAL LEVI at Newbury and he’s weighted to turn the tables on the winner.

DARK TROOPER might be a more dangerous foe granted that he’s a dual course and distance winner and goes to post off a dominating triumph at Saint-Cloud. His owners Wathnan Racing are enjoying a bountiful week, and he could add to their booty. SAINT LAWRENCE was a 22-1 winner of the race 12 months ago and faces a rematch with the second and third APOLLO ONE and JUAN LES PINS that he can come out on top in. Going back-to-back in the race was recently achieved by Rohaan, and I wouldn’t call Saint Lawrence a badly handicapper horse.

ALBASHEER failed to cut the mustard when fancied to do well in the 2023 running, however, he’s down a notch on the class ladder which still makes him of interest. STRIKE RED looks to have been laid out for this one day, and after an improved effort on his latest start needs to be taken seriously for trainer Richard Fahey.

Prediction: 1st FERROUS, 2nd Dark Trooper, 3rd Lethal Levi, 4th Saint Lawrence, 5th Apollo One, 6th Albasheer, 7th Strike Red

Race 6 GOLDEN GATES HANDICAP

No16 PORTSMOUTH (Each Way)
Trainer: Andrew Balding – Jockey: Hayley Turner

PORTSMOUTH has looked talented in a three-race campaign this year, scoring first time back at Epsom, finishing an unlucky 2nd at Newmarket when he ran too free, and second back at Epsom where he bumped into the smart Persica. The Gleneagles gelding can travel close to the pace, and from stall 3 should be able to lie handy on the turn into the straight after which his rider will hopefully just need to find racing real estate in order to get a run.

HAND OF GOD represents connections who were most unlucky with King’s Gambit on Thursday. The Churchill colt looks progressive, and has William Buick doing the steering on his hat-trick bid. Aidan O’Brien’s OLD FAITHFUL is another hat-trick seeker and bound to prove popular with punters but meets tougher opponents than for his Naas and Navan successes.

DAMBUSTER is interesting on handicap bow for Andrew Balding and would be more so if he’s backed. MILETUS is a pea out of the same pod, while TREASURE did too much too soon in the Oaks and could find this far more her cup of tea in the colours of The King.

Prediction: 1st PORTSMOUTH, 2nd Hand Of God, 3rd Old Faithful, 4th Dambuster, 5th Miletus, 6th Treasure

Race 7 QUEEN ALEXANDRA STAKES

No6 RUN FOR OSCAR
Trainer: Charles Byrnes – Jockey: Maxime Guyon

Ireland could easily enjoy a clean sweep of the placings in one of the longest races in the Calendar. RUN FOR OSCAR attracted plenty of support before finishing third to DAWN RISING in the corresponding race last year after which he was placed in a couple of Group races. And while he hasn’t managed to claim a cheque in two runs in Listed company this year he’s certainly not let increasing years slow him any. The JP McManus-owned Dawn Rising has a similar recent profile and should again get into the argument.

He is preferred to the younger QUEENSTOWN, while should connections of TRUESHAN chance him on the ground his class could see him run well on a first shot at the distance.

Prediction: 1st RUN FOR OSCAR, 2nd Dawn Rising, 3rd Queenstown, 4th Trueshan

Place Accumulator Perm (Races 1-7)

14 x 8, 2 x 6, 9, 5 x 1, 14, x 20, 10, 21, 7 x 16, 8, 13 x 6, 2

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