Neil Morrice brings us an in-depth preview for day five of Royal Ascot which features no fewer than three Group 1 races!
Race 1: SILVER WOKINGHAM HANDICAP
No5: BLUE MIST
Trainer: Roger Charlton – Jockey: Jason Watson
BLUE MIST tries his hand at sprinting for the first time on his thirteenth career start, but there is method in his trainer’s madness. Charlton excels with sprint handicappers and will know that with the ground riding slow this will be more like a seven furlongs contest. Furthermore his charge but in a highly pleasing run to chase home Breath Of Air at Newbury following a near ten-month break. That should have blown away any cobwebs and brought him to concert pitch.
Top weight was no bar to handicap success earlier in the week and SWINDLER is an interesting proposition for Ed Walker and Andrea Atzeni. Like Blue Mist he is also lightly-raced, having won two of only three outings in 2019 and finished just out of the money when reappearing at Newmarket’s Guineas meeting.
At bigger prices, TOTAL COMMITMENT and GOLDEN APOLLO are worth considering. The former is closely handicapped with Swindler on comeback form and represents a trainer well versed at getting one ready for a race like this. Golden Apollo has a lengthy absence to overcome but as a son on Pivotal is going to revel in the conditions. At the base of the weights, NAHAARR needs inclusion. He won four on the bounce last year and has troubled the judge in both subsequent starts in better company.
Prediction:
1st BLUE MIST
2nd Total Commitment
3rd Nahaarr
4th Golden Apollo
5th Swindler
Race 2: QUEEN MARY STAKES (Fillies’ Group 2)
No8: MORE BEAUTIFUL
Trainer: Aidan O’Brien – Jockey: Ryan Moore
MORE BEAUTIFUL can endorse the decision to tackle this in favour of the furlong longer Albany Stakes in what looks a strong renewal. The War Front filly displayed abundant speed to come home unchallenged on debut at Naas which is the key factor in staying at
five furlongs, as well as the ground factor that will make it more of a test. The selection seems to have been blessed with a peach of a draw in 18, and possibly has her main rival alongside her in the Karl Burke-trainer DANDALLA. She managed to go off at 7-1 when scoring on debut at Newcastle and her effort today should show that was stealing money. I have a very good message for her, and she can contend.
The Wesley Ward-trained CAMPANELLE triumphed in what looked a decent contest at Gulfstream but the draw bias will surely make life tricky for her out of stall one. The beautifully-bred SACRED figures to have learned bundles from her winning introduction at Newmarket and if so will surely have some kind of say for William Haggas.
Prediction:
1st MORE BEAUTIFUL
2nd Dandalla
3rd Sacred
4th Campanelle
Race 3: COVENTRY STAKES (Group 2)
No1: ADMIRAL NELSON
Trainer: Aidan O’Brien – Jockey: Ryan Moore
It’s the toughest of tests for ADMIRAL NELSON but it will nevertheless take something special to tear him down. The son of Kingman contested perhaps the best two-year-old race run this season when trumping stablemate Merchants Quay over five furlongs at the Curragh and is going to be even better with a sixth furlong to cover from a favoured high draw. Victory for Aidan O’Brien would put him into the picture for the 2021 Guineas and he should prove very hard to beat.
Mark Johnston’s QAADER is bred to handle these easy conditions, being out of a mare by Dansili. He won well first time at Newbury and hails from a stable whose juveniles are right in the zone. Johnston also fields ARMY OF INDIA who short-headed SCIENCE on debut at Kempton. The latter has claims to turn the tables for Archie Watson with cheekpieces added. Godolphin hopes rest with CREATIVE FORCE who is a beautifully bred colt by Dubawi out of a Choisir mare. He got the job done tidily on Newmarket debut and is bred to handle conditions on the dam’s side of his chart.
Another once-raced winner to reckon with is the Tom Dascombe-trained LAUDED who is well drawn to attack, while at a double-figure price TALBOT is not out of it in the old Sangster colours.
Prediction:
1st ADMIRAL NELSON
2nd Creative Force
3rd Qaader
4th Talbot
5th Lauded
RACE 4: CORONATION STAKES (Fillies’ Group 1)
No4: QUADRILATERAL
Trainer: Roger Charlton – Jockey: Jason Watson
Just how much QUADRILATERAL needed her run in the 1,000 Guineas will reveal itself here, and granted normal progression the daughter of Frankel can take out what is a very tricky heat. Her third placing behind Love is there to be stepped up on as she remains at the mile, but moves to a turning track.
Aidan O’Brien pitches a twin attack on the prize but both SO WONDERFUL and LOVE LOCKET could struggle. More potent threats to the selection are RUN WILD, ALPINE STAR, CLOAK OF SPIRITS and SHARING. John Gosden’s Run Wild returned to romp home in Listed company at Newmarket, looking an improved filly from last year. Alpine Star landed a Group 2 on testing conditions at the Curragh for Jessie Harrington and has been given all the time in the world to develop. However, Frankie Dettori’s mount needs to overcome a more than 300-day absence. Cloak Of Spirits finished a place in front of Quadrilateral in the Guineas but Richard Hannon’s charge may well be taken on for the outright lead. That said, she’s bred to enjoy the ground, as she’s out of a mare by Pivotal.
Trainer Graham Motion is an Englishman representing Stateside interests with Sharing. The daughter of Speightstown has looked good in her winning outings at Saratoga, Santa Anita and Churchill Downs, with her prospects enhanced by the booking of Oisin Murphy.
Prediction:
1st QUADRILATERAL
2nd Sharing
3rd Cloak Of Spirits
4th Run Wild
5th Alpine Star
Race 5: ST JAMES’S PALACE STAKES (Group 1)
No6: THREAT
Trainer: Richard Hannon – Jockey: Oisin Murphy
The 2,000 Guineas form is really put to the test with runner-up WICHITA and third home PINATUBO clashing in a fascinating contest that also sees PALACE PIER being asked to step up and THREAT returning from a lengthy absence.
Wichita was the money horse in the Classic but couldn’t get to Kameko, while last year’s supreme champion juvenile Pinatubo lost his unbeaten record with a creditable run in third, giving him a length to make up on the Aidan O’Brien-trained second. In a different type of contest run round a bend there’s every chance that the formbook may be challenged. Pinatubo has a good chance to turn the tables on Wichita, while having to contend with another tough opponent in Threat.
Richard Hannon’s colt landed the Gimcrack at York and the Champagne Stakes at Doncaster before proving no match for Earthlight in the Middle Park. However, he’s the subject of very positive vibes from his trainer, and can upset the applecart. Palace Pier has to jump from a handicap triumph on comeback at Newcastle into this red hot Group 1 which is a tall order for the son of Kingman, taking full stock of the fact that for John Gosden he could be anything.
Prediction:
1st THREAT
2nd Pinatubo
3rd Wichita
4th Palace Pier
Race 6: DIAMOND JUBILEE STAKES (Group 1)
No10: ONE MASTER
Trainer: William Haggas – Jockey: James Doyle
The ante-post market has been all about multiple scorer SCEPTICAL, whose rags to riches story for trainer Denis Hogan has been the stuff of dreams. The gelding cost just 2,800 pounds as a cast-off from Godolphin and proved how effective he is on turf by routing his Listed race foes at Naas last week.
With Frankie Dettori on board, he figures to start favourite. This would not be the greatest renewal on paper, however, and proper Group 1 sprinters are thin on the ground. Kevin Ryan’s HELLO YOUMZAIN is going to love the underfoot conditions, but having finished third in the Commonwealth Cup here 12 months ago flopped on his final 2019 start in a Group 1 sprint on Champions Day. THE TIN MAN is closely matched with Hello Youmzain on Haydock Cup form and bids to turn back the clock to his triumph in this three years ago. DREAM OF DREAMS has a good record fresh, winning his first two last year, but then couldn’t hold a candle to Hello Youmzain at Haydock.
But if there’s a horse that can improve on the ground then it has to be ONE MASTER. The daughter of Pivotal landed the Foret at Longchamp on Arc day before finishing second in the Champions Sprint on her final 2019 start here. It’s sporting of her American owners to keep her racing at six, and William Haggas has her primed to show that decision is a wise one.
Prediction: 1st ONE MASTER, 2nd Hello Youmzain, 3rd Sceptical, 4th The Tin Man, 5th The Tin Man.
Race 7: WOKINGHAM HANDICAP
No5: MUBAKKER
Trainer: Sir Michael Stoute – Jockey: Jim Crowley
MUBAKKER can help put the icing on the cake for what has been an extraordinary week for owner Sheikh Hamdan and jockey Crowley. The lightly-raced colt picked up stylishly when asked to lengthen to score on reappearance at Newcastle.
Most certainly several pounds improvement to come, Mubakker can follow-up in spite of his low draw proving a potential threat. SUMMERGHAND shaped like a sprinter that will land a valuable handicap this summer and this could be his day. He tuned up for this by chasing home Tinto at Newmarket and has the attributes to earn from his middle draw. SPANISH CITY hails from a stable that has bloomed during the course of the week and is one of those strong travellers that must deliver in one of the big ones, given his ability and workable handicap mark.
BIELSA has strong runs to win record for Kevin Ryan which he endorsed with a clear cut comeback success at Doncaster. He caught the attention of King Power Racing who purchased the gelding who must have a serious each-way chance. Archie Watson’s HIGHLAND DRESS bids to complete a hat-trick has a favourable draw and is another to bear in mind.
Prediction:
1st MUBAKKER
2nd Summerghand
3rd Spanish City
4th Bielsa
5th HighLand Dress
Race 8 QUEEN ALEXANDRA STAKES (Conditions Race)
No11: NATE THE GREAT
Trainer: Andrew Balding – Jockey Oisin Murphy
This isn’t the best renewal of the longest race of the week by any means. There are no runners from Ireland and a lack of dual-purpose horses, but this could be down to the reduction in prize money. The one that seems sure to go well is WHO DARES WINS.
His trainer Alan King landed the Ascot Stakes and his runner here not only plundered the Northumberland Plate last year but also scored over fences during the winter. He’s run well at this meeting and has no problems ground-wise. MEKONG is interesting for new handler Jamie Osborne after his good second at the Saudi Cup fixture in February, but needs to prove his stamina at the distance.
THE GRAND VISIR took out the Ascot Stakes last year but then lost his way, leaving NATE THE GREAT as the one that could step up to the plate. He was second in the Chesham here as a juvenile and represents the in form Andrew Balding stable.
Prediction:
1st NATE THE GREAT
2nd Who Dares Wins
3rd Mekong
4th The Grand Visir
5th Fun Mac
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