Australian racing tips – Monday 03 October 2022 – Warwick Farm

Best Bet: DEMOCRACY MANIFEST (Race 6)

Value Bet: KOKORO (Race 8)

Jackpot (race 5 – 8).

Cost: R90.00  

Race 5.

Although this is a small field to start off the day’s Jackpot, it looks to be a tricky F&M Handicap with many of the runners in with a realistic chance of finding the winner’s box, so some caution is suggested. SUNRISE RUBY had finished second in her two runs prior to ending up in seventh place last time out over 1350M, 2.7L behind the winner. She did not get the clearest of passages in the home straight that day, only seeing daylight at the 200M mark, but she finished off her race well. From a handy draw three, she looks to be the one to side with here.

PARTY FOR ONE was a tad disappointing in her penultimate run over 1100M, but put that behind her when finishing sixth last time out over 1250M, 2.8L back from the winner and it should be noted that she jumped awkwardly and had to be held up at the top of the home straight that day, so should have finished closer to the victor than she officially did. She gets gate seven and will have her peak run after returning from a 17 week rest. In addition, she gets the blinkers re-fitted for today’s run and if this move has the desired effect, she should be right up there when they hit the line.

 SHORT SHORTS is a three time winner with a second and a third place finish from her seven starts to date, the latest a head victory over 1300M, when returning from a 19 week rest. She jumped awkwardly that day, but recovered quickly to take the lead and then held off all the late challengers in the dash down to the wire. She is drawn one inside the latter and should turn in another honest performance today.

Race 6.

DEMOCRACY MANIFEST has won three of his last four outings, the latest over six furlongs by a neck, when returning from a 15 week rest. He was slow away and then had to be held up at the 200M mark, but finished strongly to get up in the shadow of the post. He jumps from draw seven and his fifth career victory is very much on the cards and as such, he is taken to be the best bet on the day’s card.

CAPO STRADA won his penultimate start over 1300M when returning from a 32 week absence and then followed that up with a second place finish last time out over 1250M, just a half length behind the winner. He struck the front at the 250M pole in that contest, only to be run out of it very late. With him having his peak run here and from gate five, he could emerge as the biggest threat to the top choice.

REDWOOD SHADOW had finished third in his three runs prior to ending up in fourth spot last time out over a mile, 0.7L off the winner, but he had to be switched at the 280M mark, which did his cause no good. The gelding has the blinkers removed and from draw nine, he should be doing his best work late.

Race 7.

SHADOW DEVIL made solid improvement when finishing second last time out over seven furlongs, just a neck behind the winner, when returning from a 13 week spell. He jumped awkwardly, taking a heavy bump from another runner, but finished well over the closing stages and the form of that race has stood up well with two runners out of that contest subsequently winning. He will have to negotiate draw eight, but if he is able to confirm that last effort, he should be a big runner in this line-up.

STROMBOLI has cracked pole position and did win his penultimate start over 1100M and then finished third next time out when stepping up to six furlongs, just under a half length behind the winner. He jumped awkwardly that day, but was still able to sit second, before battling all the way down to the finishing post. He has his peak run after returning from a 23 week absence and gets the services of 3kg claiming apprentice Zac Lloyd, son of ex-SA champion jockey, Jeff Lloyd.

I AM LETHAL tried to go from jump to wire when finishing sixth last time out over six furlongs, just over six lengths behind the winner, but his jockey reported that he was not suited by those tactics. Champion jockey James McDonald takes the ride today and he has the blinkers removed. From a useful gate four, he should be included in all bets.

Race 8.

The day’s value bet, KOKORO has won two of his last four starts and finished second in his latest outing over a mile, 2.7L back from the winner, but he jumped awkwardly, finding himself towards the back of the field, forcing him to come the widest of them all into the home stretch, but he made good late progress over the latter stages. The gelding gets gate six and he should turn in another honest performance today.

ESTADIO MESTALLA won by two lengths when making his debut over a mile and was immediately rested for 47 weeks. He returns here without having had the benefit of a barrier trial, so his fitness will have to be taken on trust, but the fact that his connections have brought him back into racing after such a lengthy absence would seem to suggest that they believe that he still has something more to offer them. His pole position will do him no harm.

MONEY FROM THE SKY finished second last time out over 1500M, 0.8L back from the victor, when returning from a 21 week spell. He came three wide into the home straight that day, but delivered a powerful finish, suggesting that the extra ground on offer here will be to his liking. He will have to deal with a wide draw nine, but given his style of racing, he is likely to be dropped out of it in the early stages and then start to pick off the front runners over the latter part of the race.