Winning Form share all of their best bets and tips for Monday’s racing coming your way from Muswellbrook on 3 July 2023.
Best Bet: SEAHAVEN (Race 8)
Value Bet: WATCH ME RUMBLE (Race 7)
Jackpot (race 5 – 8)
1st | 2nd | 3rd | 4th |
3 | 6 | 7 | 2 |
10 | 8 | 1 | 9 |
11 | 7 | 11 |
|
Cost: R54.00
Race 5
There are three unraced runners in the field, so as is always the case in these types of races, a keen eye should be kept on the betting markets to get some indication as to whether any of the connections believe that they can win first-time out. Any betting support for a runner or runners should be respected. Of the raced runners, FLYING BIRDS may well prove to be the best. He has consistent form lines to his name finishing second last time out over five furlongs, 0.8L behind the winner, but he did over race in the middle stages that day. The gelding faces a wide draw thirteen, but he should use his early gate speed to move across without expending too much energy.
Two 3yr old fillies could chase him home with the slight preference going to HOT SUNDAE who showed plenty of toe and was crowded over the concluding stages when finishing sixth in her latest outing over five furlongs, 2.7L behind the winner. From her kinder draw four, she should be right up there when they hit the line. She is the stable companion to the top choice and makes a solid backup for the yard.
INVEST IN LOVE was seldom far off the action before finishing a disappointing eighth last time out over five furlongs, just 6.3L back from the winner, when returning from a 22-week break and having her first run for her new trainer. It should however be noted that she jumped awkwardly that day and that she gets a set of blinkers fitted for the first time. If these have the desired effect, she should be a big runner here notwithstanding a wideish draw eight.
Race 6
A 4yr and a 3yr filly and a 5yr old mare could fight out the finish to this race and complete the trifecta, but ALLAY is taken to lead the field home. She won over five furlongs three runs back, finished second her penultimate start over the same sprint distance and then fifth in her latest outing over five furlongs, just over three and a half lengths behind the winner. She returns here after a 20-week absence without having had the benefit of a barrier trial, so her fitness will have to be taken on trust and has drawn wide in gate ten, but on the plus side, she will get 4kgs taken off her back thanks to her claiming apprentice.
SHAMALIE raced just behind the leaders and then accelerated smartly to finish third last time out over six furlongs, one and a half lengths behind the winner and the form of that race has been franked. She jumps from draw seven and the drop-in trip should be to her liking.
NO FILTER made good late progress when ending up in fourth place last time out over five furlongs, just under three and a half lengths back from the winner. She has a useful gate three and blinkers get re-fitted for today’s run.
Race 7
WATCH ME RUMBLE is a 4yr old filly taking on the boys, but she has posted two solid last runs, the latest a third spot finish over 1300M, just over a length off the victor. She does have a wide draw eleven, but she should be doing her best work late and is taken to be the value bet on the day’s card.
BIG HAPPINESS on the other hand has cracked pole position and raced three wide throughout before striking the front at the 200M mark, only to be snared in the shadow of the post when second last time out over 1300M, just a neck behind the winner. The gelding should enjoy the drop in trip.
ELARSKI is another 4yr old filly in the race. She lost two lengths at the start when finishing sixth last time out over 1300M, 4.7L adrift of the winner. She is drawn in gate five and gets a set of blinkers fitted for the first time and should not be lightly dismissed.
Race 8
The day’s best bet, SEAHAVEN is a three-time winner from just the six starts to date and had his consistency rewarded with a half-length victory last time out over 1500M. He hit the front at the 200M pole and then held off the chasing pack in the dash down to the wire, despite hanging in down the home straight. The gelding returns from a 25-week break, but has had the benefit of three barrier trials, finishing third in the latest and should put his pole position to good use. Two 4yr old fillies could prove to be his nearest challengers.
ADELSUN won her last start over seven furlongs by 1.3L, notwithstanding being forced to come the widest of them all into the home straight from some way back. She gets a cosy draw three and could emerge as the biggest danger to the top pick.
CLASSIC DEEL missed out on her hat-trick after victories over ten furlongs and 2100M when finishing second last time out over thirteen furlongs, just a half lengths behind the winner. She has her first run after returning from a 22-week spell, but she has turning in two encouraging barrier trials to showcase her well-being. Whist draw wide in gate twelve, she should be involved in the finish.
