Winning Form share all of their best bets and tips for Sunday’s racing coming your way from Mudgee on 7 May 2023.
Best Bet: THORPE (Race 5)
Value Bet: DRIVING FORCE (Race 7)
Jackpot (race 5 – 8)
1st | 2nd | 3rd | 4th |
1 | 5 | 10 | 3 |
6 | 10 | 4 | 5 |
10 | 1 | 8 | |
2 | |||
8 |
Cost: R90.00
Race 4
There are five unraced runners in the field, so as is always the case in these types of races, a keen eye should be kept on the betting markets to get some indication as to whether any of the connections believe that they can win first-time out. Any betting support for a runner or runners should be respected. However, three 2yr old raced fillies could fight out the finish to this race and complete the trifecta, but HARLEMITE may well prove to be the best. She has only had the two runs to date, finishing fifth on debut over 900M and then making the expected improvement to win her next start over five furlongs by 1.8L. She showed plenty of toe that day and from her wideish draw eight, she should use her early gate speed to move across without expending too much energy.
GENZANO was a beaten favourite first time out over five furlongs, finishing second, beaten just a half-length. She raced just behind the leaders that day, but could not run them down over the closing stages. She would have learnt from that experience and with the natural improvement that can be expected, she should be right up there when they hit the line.
KICK OFF stayed on well from towards the back of the field when finishing fourth over five furlongs on debut, just under three lengths back from the winner. She would have come on further with that run under her belt and from a handy draw two, she should be included in all bets.
Race 5
The day’s best bet, THORPE has had the three runs to date, winning over six furlongs on debut and then finishing second twice after that, the latest over seven furlongs, just a head off the winner. He struck the front at the top of the home straight in that event, only to be grabbed in the shadow of the post. The gelding has his peak run after returning from a lengthy 47-week spell, but has pulled a useful gate two and will have 1.5kgs taken off his back thanks to his claiming apprentice.
LOUD is a 3yr old filly taking on the boys and tried to go from jump to wire before being grabbed in the last stride to finish second last time out over seven furlongs, just a short head back from the winner. She faces a wide gate fourteen, but she will have ex-SA jockey Brandon Lerena in the irons, so will get all the necessary assistance from the saddle and could emerge as the biggest danger to the top choice.
PER CAPITA is the stable companion to the top pick and has finished closer to the winner in each of his last three starts, the latest when third over today’s journey, just a neck behind the winner and if he has continued down the same path of improvement, he should be right up there when they hit the line. The gelding is drawn even wider in gate seventeen, but he is a speedy sort who should be able to work his way across without using up too much gas and makes a solid backup for the yard.
Race 6
OSMAN goes for his hat-trick after two victories over today’s journey, the latest by 0.8L, when going from jump to wire. He has a cosy draw three and he is likely to attempt similar tactics today and could prove difficult to reel in over the closing stages.
HOW’S IT KEV on the other hand missed out on his hat-trick after wins over seven and six furlongs when finishing a staying on second last time out over seven furlongs, 0.8L behind the winner. He must overcome a wide gate eleven, but he should be doing his best work late.
OAKFIELD TWILIGHT followed up his penultimate run victory over 1350M with a disappointing thirteenth place finish next time out over seven furlongs, just over seven lengths back from the winner, but that was at a stronger centre. He gets a set of blinkers re-fitted for today’s run and if this move has the desired effect, he should be a big runner here, jumping from pole position.
Race 7
DRIVING FORCE won his penultimate start over six furlongs and then lost a length at the start, but finished well to end up in third spot next time out over 1100M, just over a length and a half behind the winner. He is drawn in gate seven and taken as the value bet on the day’s card.
SCARZEL had finished second twice before winning his last start over 1100M by just over a length, this despite jumping awkwardly. He recovered quickly however to race just behind the leader, hitting the front at the top of the home straight and then fought off all the late challengers in the dash down to the wire. The gelding is drawn the widest of them all in gate twelve, but he should be doing his best work late.
HIRAISHIN is seldom far off the action, finishing fifth last time out over five furlongs, 2.7L back from the winner. The gelding is drawn wideish in gate eight, but on the plus side, he will have 2kgs removed from his allocated weight courtesy of his claiming apprentice.
