Winning Form share all of their best bets and tips for Thursday's racing coming your way from Newcastle on 4 May 2023.
Best Bet: TERRITORY EXPRESS (Race 5)
Value Bet: SMILING PROPHET (Race 8)
Jackpot (race 5 – 8)
1st | 2nd | 3rd | 4th |
5 | 4 | 7 | 8 |
6 | 2 | 3 | 9 |
Cost: R54.00
Race 5
TERRITORY EXPRESS has only had the two runs to date, finishing third on debut over six furlongs and was considered to be good enough to be entered into a Group 3 event next time out over seven furlongs, where he finished seventh, but just under four and a half length behind the winner. It should however be noted that he was slow away that day and then did not get the clearest of passages in the home straight, only seeing daylight late, before finishing off his race well. He will have to negotiate the widest draw of them all in gate thirteen, but on the plus side he will get 2kgs taken off his back thanks to his claiming apprentice and is taken to be the best bet on the day’s card.
WHATADILEMMA has finished third in his last three runs and raced just off the leaders, but made good late progress to end up just a neck behind the victor last time out over a mile. He on the other hand has a handy gate two and could emerge as the biggest danger to the top choice.
GORGEOUS ZARA is a three year old filly taking on the boys, but she is seldom far off the action, finishing second last time out over nine furlongs, just 1.3L back from the winner. She tried to go from jump to wire that day, but overraced in the middle stages and from her wide draw twelve, she is likely to attempt similar tactics today to be involved in the finish.
Race 6
DESI EMPEROR shifted out on straightening, but produce a powerful finish to win his latest outing over a mile, albeit by just a head. He has pulled a useful draw two and will have ex-SA jockey Keagan Latham in the irons, so will get all the necessary assistance from the saddle.
BY NINE came the widest into the home straight, but stayed on well only to be denied victory last time out over a mile in the shadow of the post, beaten a short-head. The gelding has gate seven and should be right up there when they hit the line.
TIME RAID has finished closer to the winner in each of his last three starts, the latest when sixth over nine furlongs, 3.3L behind the winner, but if he has continued down the same path of improvement, he should be a big runner here and to be included in all bets.
Race 7
TOT OF RUM is a three year old filly taking on males, but she has finished third in her last three outings, the latest over seven furlongs, three lengths off the victor. She overraced in the middle stages in that event and struck the front at the 250M mark, but then hung out over the closing stages to be run out of it close to home. She jumps from a cozy draw three and will be hoping to crack her maiden win today.
TWILIGHT ROCK has consistent formlines to his name and tried to go from gun to tape when finishing third in his latest outing over seven furlongs, 1.7L back from the winner. The gelding faces a wide gate nine, but will have ex-SA jockey Brandon Lerena in the saddle to aid his cause.
SENESCHAL has only had the two runs, finishing sixth first time out over 1300M and then showed the expected to finish two and a half lengths behind the winner next time out when stepping up to a mile. From his kinder draw five, he could complete the trifecta. There is an unraced runner in the field, so keep an eye on the betting markets to get some indication as to whether her connections believe that they can win first time out. Any betting support for her should be respected.
Race 8
The day’s value bet, SMILING PROPHET is a 3yr old filly taking on boys, but she has cracked pole position and has won two of her last three starts and finished second in the other, the latest victory coming over five furlongs by a head. She set the pace in that last outing and then held off all the late challengers in the dash down to the wire and has also won a subsequent barrier trial.
SECRET REVOLUTION had his consistency rewarded with his maiden victory last time out over 1100M, albeit by just a head, but he did shift out at the 100M pole bumping another runner and was also reported to have lost a near-hind shoe. The form of that race has stood up well with two runners out of that contest subsequently winning and from his cozy draw four, he should turn in another honest performance today.
MARKWELL DREAMER finished well from just off the pace to win his last start over five furlongs by a head. The gelding is drawn wide out in gate twelve, but he will have 3kgs removed from his allocated weight courtesy of his claiming apprentice and he should use his early gate speed to move across without expending too much energy.
