Winning Form share all of their best bets and tips for Tuesday’s racing coming your way from Kembla Grange on 7 February 2023.
Best Bet: AVEBURY (Race 4)
Value Bet: MARTINI CRUSADER (Race 6)
Jackpot (race 4 – 7)
1st | 2nd | 3rd | 4th |
1 | 5 | 7 | 2 |
3 | 12 | 2 | 1 |
| 2 | 9 | 7 |
| 3 |
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| 10 |
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Cost: R90.00
Race 4
There are two unraced runners in the field, so keep an eye on the betting markets to get some indication as to whether either of the connections believe that they can win first time out. Any betting support for either or both of them should be respected. Of the raced runners, the day’s best bet, AVEBURY may prove to be the best. She has only had the four runs to date, posting two seconds and a third-place finish and although recorded as finishing ninth last time out over six furlongs, she was just 3.7L behind the winner. It should however be noted that she was bumped at the start that day and raced four wide throughout, before hanging out in the home straight. She was returning from an 18-week break on that occasion and from gate five, she could prove hard to topple.
FIRST CLASS MOLLEY was bumped at the start and lost an off-hind shoe when finishing third on debut over five furlongs, 1.8L behind the winner. She would have learnt from that experience and with the natural improvement that can be expected, she could be the biggest danger to the top choice, despite facing a wide draw ten.
BINDI’S CHOICE did not get the clearest of passages in the home straight when ending up sixth first time out over 1100M, 1.8L back from the victor. She would have come on further with that run under her belt and although drawn wideish in gate eight, she should be involved in the finish.
Race 5
As with the previous race, there are a number of unraced runners in this contest, so the same comment in respect of keeping an eye on the betting moves applies here as well. CRAZY RUSSIAN was slow away but still managed to race just behind the leaders before staying on well to end up in second place first time out over seven furlongs, just a half-length off the winner. He has a handy draw three and could be the one that they all have to beat.
POETIC DRAMA is a 4yr old filly taking on the boys, but she is seldom far off the action, finishing third last time out over six furlongs, just under one and a half lengths back from the winner, but she did jump awkwardly and came four wide into the home straight, before making good late progress over the closing stages, suggesting that the extra ground on offer here will be to her liking. She will have to negotiate gate nine, but she should give the males a good run for their money.
ISLAND LEGEND has produced two solid last runs, the latest when fourth over 1300M, 1.7L behind the winner and the form of that race has stood up well with two runners out of that contest subsequently winning. The gelding raced three wide without cover that day, so that effort was encouraging and from a useful draw four, he should be included in all bets.
Race 6
The day’s value bet, MARTINI CRUSADER has finished closer to the winner in each of his last three runs, the latest when second over six furlongs, just over one and a half lengths adrift of the victor, when returning from a 15-week rest. He came four wide into the home stretch in that event but battled all the way down to the wire. The gelding faces a wideish gate eight, but he will be hoping to go one better today.
CUBAN GRANCHICO has cracked pole position and won over six furlongs three runs back before finishing ninth last time out over the same trip, just over six lengths back from the victor, but he did jump awkwardly that day and then raced three wide without cover. He was returning from a longer 22-week spell that day and should not be lightly dismissed.
THE DENZEL put his disappointing penultimate run over seven furlongs behind him when finishing second last time out over six furlongs, just a half length off the winner. He was bumped at the start and overraced in the early and middle stages that day and whilst draw wide in gate thirteen, he should use his early gate speed to move across without expending too much energy.
Race 7
SPALTET jumped awkwardly, had to be held up on the home turn, was bumped at the 200M mark and only saw daylight at the 150M pole before finishing off his race well to end up in third spot in his latest outing over a mile, 0.7L behind the winner. He has his peak run after returning from a lengthy 51-week spell and is sure to put his pole position to good use.
PORTNOY had his consistency rewarded with a victory last time out over ten furlongs, putting five lengths between himself and the opposition. He went from jump to wire that day and from his wide draw thirteen, he is likely to attempt similar tactics today.
STATE OF AMERICA is trained by ex-SA jockey/trainer David Payne and is another frontrunner who went from gun to tape to win his last start over a mile by three lengths. He is drawn in gate six and will have his peak run after returning from a 15-week rest and could prove hard to peg back over the latter stages.
