Australian racing tips – Wednesday 19 July 2023 – Warwick Farm

Best Bet: RUBY FLYER (Race 6)
Value Bet: ABLE WILLIE (Race 7)

Jackpot (race 4 – 7)

Cost: R90.00

Race 4

SECRET REVOLUTION has consistent formlines to his name, finishing third last time out over 1100M, just over a length behind the winner, but he jumped awkwardly that day bumping another runner, but then stayed on well over the closing stages. From gate six, he is likely to turn in another honest performance today.

Two 3yr old fillies could chase him home, with the slight preference going to BUBBA’S BAY who followed up her penultimate run victory over five furlongs with a fourth place finish next time out over 1100M, 1.8L back from the winner, but she was bumped shortly after the start in that event. She will have to overcome a wide draw twelve out of twelve, but she should use her early gate speed to move across without expending too much energy.

PINNACE did not get the clearest of passages in the home straight, having to be ease off the heels of another runner at the 100M mark and hanging in over the latter stages, when ending up in sixth place last time out over five furlongs, just over three and a half lengths back from the victor, so that effort is best ignored. She gets a kinder draw four and will get 1.5kgs taken off her back thanks to her claiming apprentice, Zac Lloyd, son of ex-SA champion jockey, Jeff Lloyd.

Race 5

This looks to be a tricky F&M Handicap with plenty of runners in with a realistic chance of finding the winner’s box, so some caution is suggested. THOUSAND YEARS won her penultimate start over 1900M and then finished seventh in her next outing over a mile, just under two and a half lengths off the winner, when returning from a 25 week break. She was slow away and had to be eased off the heels of another runner at the 1400M pole on that occasion, but stayed on well over the concluding stages. She jumps from draw five and could be the one to side with here.

OUTSIDER won over six furlongs three runs back, finished seventh in her penultimate start over 1300M and then sixth in her latest outing over the same trip, 2.7L behind the winner, but it should be noted that she was bumped at the start and hung out over the final 400M. In addition, her jockey put up 0.5kgs overweight. She will have to negotiate a wideish draw eight, but she should be right up there when they hit the line.

ENDORPHINS is seldom far off the action and was returning from an 18 week break when finishing fourth last time out over a mile, just over a length and a half behind the winner. She gets a handy gate four and the form of that race has stood up well with two runners out of that contest subsequently winning.

Race 6

RUBY FLYER has won three of his last four starts, the latest over a mile when putting three and a half lengths between himself and the opposition, despite coming three wide into the home straight. He kicked clear at the 250M mark to record a facile victory. The gelding jumps from gate six and will have 1.5kg claiming Zac Lloyd in the saddle to aid his cause and is made the best bet on the day’s card.

THE MILKYBAR KID is a three time winner from nine starts, but was a tad disappointing when finishing sixth last time out over a mile, just under eight lengths adrift of the victor, but he was reported to have made an unusual respiratory noise that day and was immediately rested for 28 weeks. He returns here after having had the two barrier trials, winning the latest. He is drawn one outside the latter, but he will be looking to bounce back to winning ways today and could emerge as the biggest danger to the top choice.

THE REPLICANT jumped awkwardly, but made good late progress when finishing third in his latest outing over 1500M, one and a half lengths behind the winner. The gelding faces a wide draw eleven, but he should be doing his best work late to be involved in the finish.

Race 7

The day’s value bet, ABLE WILLIE has posted two solid last runs, finishing fourth in the latest over seven furlongs, 1,8L behind the winner, but he overraced in the early and middle stages that day and had to be eased off the heels of another runner at the 900M pole and then came three wide into the home straight, before staying on over the closing stages. The gelding has pulled gate five and could prove hard to topple.

A 3yr old and a 4yr old filly could be his biggest rivals, with POWERFUL PEG perhaps the better of the pair. She jumped awkwardly and came three wide into the home straight when finishing fifth last time out over 1300M, just over two lengths off the winner, she is drawn wide in gate twelve, but she will be having her peak run after returning from a 14 week rest.

STAR IMPACT sat second and stayed on well when finishing fourth last time out over six furlongs, just under three and a half lengths adrift of the victor. She will have to deal with gate eleven, but she is a speedy sort who should be able to work her way across without using up too much gas and should be included in all bets.