Lorenzo Musetti 42/100 | Mariano Navone 37/20
This looks set to be a juicy clash between in-form Musetti and up-and-coming clay-court specialist Navone. What a few months it has been for Italian Lorenzo Musetti. The graceful all-court player had been enjoying a pretty humdrum campaign going into the grass-court swing.
But the fleetfooted Musetti really clicked into gear on the grass, reaching the semifinals in Stuttgart before a runner-up finish in Queens. He then shocked the world with a herculean run to the Wimbledon semis (registering his maiden Grand Slam semifinal in the process).
His multifaceted approach to the game is a breath of fresh air in the age of ‘big serve, big forehand’ tennis. He underlined his all-court dexterity with a runner-up finish in Umag on the eve of this year’s games. In fact, he had to pull off some Ethan Hunt globe-trotting just to get here on time for his opening match against Gael Monfils. But he never missed a beat against the veteran Monfils, taking him down 6-1, 6-4 despite a lack of proper sleep.
This has been a pretty insane year for 23-year-old Argentine Mariano Navone. Bear in mind, the pugnacious clay-court specialist had never won a main draw match before this season.
He prospered on last year’s Challenger Tour, winning five titles and reaching another final (all of those coming on clay). And he has managed to transfer that positive juju over to the main tour. He produced one of the most underrated shocks of the season, finishing runner-up in Rio as a qualifier!
He backed that up with another runner-up finish in Romania and a semifinal run in Marrakech. He hasn’t quite been able to replicate that form in the premium clay events (though he did push Machac to five sets in their 2nd round French Open tie).
And he just showcased his clay-court worth again, taking down Bastad champion Nuno Borges in straight sets, winning a remarkable 47% of his first-serve return points. Wow!
The Verdict: Musetti to win in three sets 11/4
This will be the first career meeting between these two. This could be a tough challenge for Wimbledon semifinalist Musetti. He has been playing almost non-stop tennis for the last six weeks and Navone is an old-school clay-courter who relishes extended rallies.
Navone is very much cut from the mould of idol David Nalbandian. He isn’t as graceful as Musetti, relying on dogged determination and a powerful work ethic (think a somewhat bigger Diego Schwartzman). I think that could give the slightly jaded Musetti a few issues. Having said that, Musetti should emerge victorious over the three sets.